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Press review - page 390

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EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Building Permits and 16 pips price movement

2016-04-19 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news event :


USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOC Governor Stephen Poloz speech and 18 pips price movement

2016-04-19 15:00 GMT | [CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks]

[CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks] = The speech along with Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa.

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"In terms of the Bank’s primary mandate, total CPI inflation is currently below our 2 per cent target. The upward pressure on imported prices coming from the currency depreciation is being more than offset by the impact of lower consumer energy prices and the downward pressure coming from excess capacity in the economy. As these factors diminish, total inflation is projected to converge with core inflation and be sustainably on target sometime in the second half of next year."

"To sum up where we are, while recent economic data have been encouraging on balance, they’ve also been quite variable. The global economy retains the capacity to disappoint further, the complex adjustment to lower terms of trade will restrain Canada’s growth over much of our forecast horizon, and households’ reactions to the government’s fiscal measures will bear close monitoring. We have not yet seen concrete evidence of higher investment and strong firm creation. These are some of the ingredients needed for a return to natural, self-sustaining growth with inflation sustainably on target."

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USD/CAD M5: 18 pips price movement by BOC Governor Stephen Poloz speech news event :


Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance
Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance
  • www.bankofcanada.ca
The Bank of Canada is the nation's central bank. We are not a commercial bank and do not offer banking services to the public. Rather, we have responsibilities for Canada's monetary policy, bank notes, financial system, and funds management. Our principal role, as defined in the Bank of Canada Act, is "to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada."

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Governor Mark Carney speech and 24 pips price movement

2016-04-19 14:35 GMT | [GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks]

[GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks] = The speech before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee, in London.

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GBP/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by BoE Governor Mark Carney speech news event :


USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Trade Balance and 23 pips price movement

2016-04-19 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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USD/JPY M5: 23 pips price movement by Japan Trade Balance news event :


Trading News Events: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Even though the Bank of England (BoE) remains upbeat on the U.K. economy, signs of weak wage growth may encourage Governor Mark Carney to retain the record-low interest rate throughout 2016 as the central bank struggles to achieve its 2% target for inflation.

Nevertheless, the slowdown in global growth paired with easing outputs may drag on the labor market, and a dismal employment report may drag on the exchange rate as market participants push out bets for a BoE rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Job/Wage Growth Beat Market Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bearish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims, Average Hourly Earnings Disappoint
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBPUSD Daily


  • Even though GBP/USD largely retains the downward trend carried over from late-August, the bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may spur a larger correction especially as the pair appears to be carving an inverse head-and-shoulders patter in 2016.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.3960 (50% expansion)

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.20 09:16

Trading News Events: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Even though the Bank of England (BoE) remains upbeat on the U.K. economy, signs of weak wage growth may encourage Governor Mark Carney to retain the record-low interest rate throughout 2016 as the central bank struggles to achieve its 2% target for inflation.

Nevertheless, the slowdown in global growth paired with easing outputs may drag on the labor market, and a dismal employment report may drag on the exchange rate as market participants push out bets for a BoE rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Job/Wage Growth Beat Market Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bearish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims, Average Hourly Earnings Disappoint
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBPUSD Daily


  • Even though GBP/USD largely retains the downward trend carried over from late-August, the bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may spur a larger correction especially as the pair appears to be carving an inverse head-and-shoulders patter in 2016.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.3960 (50% expansion)

GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims Change news event :


U.S. commercial crude oil inventories news event: Crude Oil Intra-Day Price Action Analysis - intra-day bullish trend to be continuing in the future with 44.89 level as a target

2016-04-20 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 538.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased whileblending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.6 million  barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 1.2 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week."

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Crude Oil M5: breakout with bullish reversal. The price broke 200 SMA/100 SMA reversal area to above on the recent commercial crude oil inventories news event for now: price was reversed to the primary bullish market condition with 43.75 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging.


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Crude Oil H4: ranging bullish. The price is on bullish ranging condition within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 44.89 resistance level located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 40.53 support level located within near 200 SMA reversal area on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing in the near future.

  • If the price will break 44.89 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 40.53 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
44.0440.53
44.8939.59
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 40.53 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 44.89 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Even though BoE warns that the next policy move will be to normalize monetary policy, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may stick to the sidelines ahead of the U.K. Referendum in June, and the central bank may look to carry its accommodative policy stance into 2017 amid the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.

However, sticky wage growth paired with hopes for a stronger recovery may boost private-sector consumption, and a rebound in retail spending may put increased pressure on the BoE to normalize policy sooner rather than later as Governor Mark Carney sees a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Falls Another 0.3% or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a short British Pound trade.
  • If market reaction favors bearish sterling trade, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bullish GBP Trade: Household Spending Tops Market Forecast
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBPUSD Daily



  • The bullish formation on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may highlight a bottoming-process especially as GBP/USD appears to be carving an inverse head-and-shoulders formation from the end of 2015, but the pair may continue to face range-bound prices as the U.K. Referendum clouds the economic outlook for the U.K.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.3960 (50% expansion)

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 10 pips price movement

2016-04-21 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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  • "Continuing a sustained period of year-on-year growth, the volume of retail sales in March 2016 is estimated to have increased by 2.7% compared with March 2015. This was the 35th consecutive month of year-on-year growth."
  • "The underlying pattern in the data, as suggested by the 3 month on 3 month movement in the quantity bought, showed growth for the 28th consecutive month, increasing by 0.8%."
  • "Compared with February 2016, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have decreased by 1.3%."
  • "Average store prices (including petrol stations) fell by 3.0% in March 2016 compared with March 2015, the 21st consecutive month of year-on-year price falls."
  • "The amount spent in the retail industry decreased by 0.1% compared with March 2015 and decreased by 1.3% compared with February 2016."

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GBP/USD M5: 10 pips price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event :


EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and 23 pips price movement

2016-04-21 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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"At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively."

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EUR/USD M5: 23 pips price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event :


Monetary policy decisions
Monetary policy decisions
  • European Central Bank
  • www.ecb.europa.eu
Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we have started to expand our monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme to €80 billion. The focus is now on the implementation of the additional non-standard measures decided on 10 March 2016.
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