Forex and Crypto Forecast for 7–11 September 2026

Last week significantly changed our previous scenarios. EUR/USD finished above 1.1600. bitcoin kept a neutral-bullish outlook above 73,000, although it fell sharply from 82,300 on Friday. Brent was the biggest surprise: instead of correcting to 84.00-85.00, it surged on renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. Gold, meanwhile, confirmed downside risk after breaking 4,440-4,450. Strong US August employment data supported the dollar and pressured risk assets. Markets now turn to the ECB meeting.

💶 EUR/USD

The pair started near 1.1580, fell to 1.1566 on Wednesday, then recovered to 1.1641 on Thursday. After strong NFP data on Friday, it dropped to 1.1585, but quickly recovered above 1.1600 and closed at 1.1613. The 1.1580-1.1600 zone remains key support. Further support: 1.1500-1.1520, 1.1390-1.1410 and 1.1325-1.1355. Resistance: 1.1640, then 1.1670-1.1710 and 1.1785-1.1800. Above 1.1580-1.1600, the outlook remains neutral-bullish. A break above 1.1670 could return the pair to 1.1710 and 1.1785-1.1800; below 1.1560-1.1570, selling pressure may strengthen. Much will depend on the ECB decision and tone on 10 September.

🟠 bitcoin (BTC/USD)

bitcoin failed to hold above 80,000 for the second time this month. It started near 78,560, fell to 76,196, then reached 82,300 on Friday before dropping to 78,600 and closing near 79,700. Positive factors included renewed spot ETF inflows of about $175 million and the launch of bitcoin- and ether-ETN trading on Hargreaves Lansdown. Support: 78,500, then 76,200-77,000, 73,000-73,900 and 69,000-69,200. Resistance: 80,000, then 81,700-82,800 and 87,000-88,000. Above 77,000, the outlook remains neutral-bullish. A break above 82,800 could open the way to 87,000-88,000; below 77,000, the risk of a fall to 73,000-73,900 increases.

🛢 Brent Crude Oil

Brent was the main exception to the previous forecast. Instead of a bearish correction, it reversed higher and briefly reached 97.30. The main driver was renewed escalation around Hormuz and supply-disruption risks. Support: 95.00, then 92.60-93.10, 89.00-90.00, 86.80-87.00, 84.80-85.00, 82.00-82.60 and 80.65-81.00. Resistance: 97.50-98.00, then 100.00 and 102.00. Above 94.00, the outlook remains bullish. A break above 97.50-98.00 could target 100.00; de-escalation may return the price to 85.00-89.00.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold again moved almost in line with the euro. XAU/USD fell to 4,282 on Tuesday, recovered to 4,511 on Thursday, then dropped to 4,365 after Friday’s employment report and closed near 4,430. The key 4,440-4,450 zone remains under pressure. Support: 4,400-4,410, then 4,280-4,350 and 4,200-4,250. Resistance: 4,450-4,460, then 4,490-4,510, 4,600-4,660 and 4,740-4,770. The outlook is neutral: above 4,500, the path opens to 4,600-4,660; below 4,400, to 4,280-4,350.

📈 Key Events and Likely Trends

Monday, 7 September, is Labor Day in the US. Wednesday brings China CPI and PPI and a speech by the Bundesbank President. The main event is the ECB meeting on Thursday, 10 September. The same day, the US publishes PPI, jobless claims and oil inventories, while Germany releases CPI. On Friday, markets get UK GDP and a full US inflation package, including CPI and Core CPI. For EUR/USD and gold, this is one of the main risks of the week.

Likely trends: EUR/USD – neutral-bullish above 1.1580-1.1600, targets 1.1670-1.1710. BTC/USD – neutral-bullish above 77,000; above 82,800 → 87,000-88,000. Brent – bullish above 94.00; above 97.50-98.00 → 100.00. XAU/USD – neutral; above 4,500 → 4,600-4,660, below 4,400 → 4,280-4,350.

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