RBA Quarterly Statement Coming Up - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ noted that the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy is released today.
Key Quotes:
"After
the rate cut earlier this week it will be a key focus for markets. Much
of that focus is likely to be on the inflation forecasts, where we
expect to see a significant downgrade after the surprising weakness in
the Q1 inflation numbers.
Underlying inflation is likely to be
forecast below the 2-3% target band for the rest of the year, possibly
coming in as low as 1¾% in December 2016, which would be a substantial
75bps below the Bank’s previous forecast.
Changes to the growth
forecasts are likely to be mixed. The near term numbers are likely to be
revised a little higher – reflecting the strength and upward revisions
in the Q4 National Accounts. But there is a chance that the further out
numbers could be revised slightly lower given the higher exchange rate
and the RBA’s concerns about global growth.
There are not likely
to be material changes to the unemployment rate trajectory, but the
discussion on uncertainties around the outlook is likely to continue to
have a substantial focus on China.
