Research Team at TDS, thinks it is a coin toss whether on Friday, 11
December the CBR keeps its Key Rate on hold at 11.00% or whether it
cuts by 50 bps.
Key Quotes
“Our uncertainty is reflected in the Bloomberg survey, with the majority expecting rates to be kept on hold, but with 14/34 of those surveyed expecting a cut.
Arguing for a cut is the weak economy and the fact that inflation will fall sharply in the coming months due to base effects.
However, there are a number of risks that have appeared recently. Food price inflation will pick-up as a result of the sanctions against Turkey. The ruble is weak, tracking oil downwards. And the Fed is likely to hike rates just a few days after the CBR meeting.
So it is possible that the CBR will want to wait to see how things develop. Assuming no major negatives, they can then cut at the January meeting. But the CBR is keen to get rates lower to help stimulate the economy so it is also possible that they decide to risk it and cut by 50 bps this Friday.”
Key Quotes
“Our uncertainty is reflected in the Bloomberg survey, with the majority expecting rates to be kept on hold, but with 14/34 of those surveyed expecting a cut.
Arguing for a cut is the weak economy and the fact that inflation will fall sharply in the coming months due to base effects.
However, there are a number of risks that have appeared recently. Food price inflation will pick-up as a result of the sanctions against Turkey. The ruble is weak, tracking oil downwards. And the Fed is likely to hike rates just a few days after the CBR meeting.
So it is possible that the CBR will want to wait to see how things develop. Assuming no major negatives, they can then cut at the January meeting. But the CBR is keen to get rates lower to help stimulate the economy so it is also possible that they decide to risk it and cut by 50 bps this Friday.”
