Prophet Signals Real Time Probability Matrix
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Corey Laliberte
https://bsky.app/profile/liberatedluminary.bsky.social - 版本: 3.0
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Prophet Signals — Real-Time Probability Matrix
A ten-module consensus engine that converts your indicators into one honest number.
______________________________________________________________________The problem it solves
Most traders run five or six indicators at once and then do the hardest part in their head: deciding what to think when RSI says one thing, the moving averages say another, and momentum says nothing at all. That reconciliation happens differently every time, under time pressure, and it is where consistency goes to die.
Prophet Signals performs that reconciliation mechanically. Ten independent evidence modules are read on every tick, normalised onto a common scale, weighted, and resolved into three live probabilities — LONG, SHORT, and NEUTRAL — that always sum to 100%. One glance replaces the mental arithmetic.
This is an analysis and alerting tool. It does not place orders.
How the engine works
Each module emits an evidence score between −1 and +1 through a saturating transform, so no single indicator can dominate the reading. Those scores feed three composites:
- S — directional evidence. The weighted mean of all trend and momentum modules.
- R — reversal evidence. Divergence, oscillator crossovers, band reclaims, and fresh channel flips, with recency decay.
- N — neutrality. Trend strength, choppiness, momentum deadzone, and internal disagreement.
These become three logits resolved through a temperature-controlled softmax, then smoothed with an exponential filter to remove tick flicker without introducing meaningful lag. The temperature parameter lets you choose how decisive the output is: lower values push probabilities toward the extremes, higher values keep them conservative.
The result is a reading that responds continuously to live price rather than only at bar close.
The ten evidence modules
| Module | Contribution |
|---|---|
| Waddah Attar Explosion | Momentum ignition and exhaustion, measured against a dynamic ATR deadzone |
| EMA stack (8/21/50/200) | Trend alignment plus slope, normalised by volatility |
| Aroon (25) | Trend age and crossover events |
| DMI / ADX | Directional pressure, self-attenuating when trend strength is weak |
| CVD proxy | Signed volume delta — order-flow lean without requiring depth data |
| RSI (14) | Continuation strength, with overbought and oversold readings damped rather than naively extended |
| Stochastic (14,3,3) | Short-cycle direction and exhaustion crossovers |
| Bollinger %B | Band pierce and re-entry — a price-rejection signature |
| Choppiness Index | Regime detection, feeding the NEUTRAL probability directly |
| SSL Channel | Stateful trend latch, flip detection, and cycle measurement |
Every module's individual score is displayed on the panel with a centre-zero bar, so you can always see which indicators are driving the probability and which are dissenting. Nothing is hidden inside a black box.
Automated reversal detection
Prophet Signals continuously scans for genuine turning points rather than simply reporting trend direction.
Swing divergence is detected automatically using fractal pivot analysis — price making a higher high while RSI makes a lower high, or price making a lower low while RSI makes a higher low. No manual line drawing.
A two-stage state machine governs reversal signals. When the reversal composite crosses its arming threshold, the panel enters a flashing WATCH state — the setup is forming but unconfirmed. Only when the probabilities subsequently cross by a defined margin does the indicator fire a TRIGGERED signal, printing an arrow on the chart and dispatching an alert. This two-stage structure is designed to reduce the false signals that come from acting on divergence alone.
SSL Channel with flip-cycle ledger
The SSL Channel is drawn directly on the chart as a two-line ribbon with a diamond marker at every flip.
Uniquely, Prophet Signals measures what each trend cycle actually delivered. From one flip to the next, it records the full range traversed and prints it on the panel in both pips and account currency, at a lot size you specify. The live cycle updates in real time; the last four completed cycles remain visible beneath it.
This turns an abstract trend filter into a concrete record of opportunity. When successive cycle ranges compress, the instrument is telling you its trends are shrinking — usually well before that becomes obvious from price alone.
The panel
A single self-contained canvas panel, rendered natively rather than assembled from chart objects:
- Three animated probability bars for LONG, SHORT and NEUTRAL
- A live sparkline plotting probability history against the 50% midline
- The full ten-module evidence grid with individual scores
- A flashing reversal-watch strip showing the live reversal composite
- The SSL flip-cycle ledger in pips and currency
- A signal grade chip (A / B / C) based on probability strength, module agreement, and trend strength
- A telemetry footer: ADX, Choppiness, ATR, spread, agreement count, and clock
Alerting
Three independent alert channels, each configurable for terminal popup, push notification to your phone, and journal logging:
- Sustained probability. Fires when a directional probability holds above your threshold for a continuous dwell period. A hysteresis band prevents momentary flutter around the threshold from resetting the timer, and a latch ensures one alert per episode with optional periodic re-alerts.
- SSL flip. Fires on every confirmed channel flip, and includes the completed statistics of the cycle that just ended.
- Reversal trigger. Fires when the two-stage state machine confirms a turning point.
Push notifications require your MetaQuotes ID to be configured in the terminal.
Compatibility and configuration
- Instruments: all — forex, metals, indices, energies, crypto
- Timeframes: all
- Accounts: netting and hedging, all brokers
- Requirements: MetaTrader 5. No DLL imports, no external connections, no third-party dependencies.
Every module period, weight, threshold, colour and panel coordinate is exposed as an input. Module weights can be rebalanced to favour whichever families of evidence suit your approach — raise the reversal-oriented weights for counter-trend work, or the trend modules for continuation trading.
Sensible defaults are supplied for all parameters; the indicator is usable immediately on attach.
What this indicator is and is not
It is a real-time consensus and measurement engine that makes multi-indicator analysis explicit, consistent, and visible.
It is not a trading system, a signal service, or a promise of results. The probabilities express the relative weight of technical evidence at a given moment — they are a structured summary of what your indicators collectively say, not a forecast of what price will do. No indicator can provide that, and any product claiming otherwise should be treated with suspicion.
Used properly, Prophet Signals removes ambiguity from the reading stage of your process. The decisions, the risk management, and the results remain yours.
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results. Test any tool on a demo account before committing capital.
