Kestrel Breakout Pro
- Uzmanlar
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Elie Bou Abdallah
Hi, I'm Elie. I build Expert Advisors for gold (XAUUSD) on MetaTrader 5.
HOW I WORK
Every EA I publish goes through the same process. The rules are written down
before I look at any results. The settings are chosen on one period of history, - Sürüm: 1.0
- Etkinleştirmeler: 20
KESTREL BREAKOUT PRO - XAUUSD
A volatility breakout system built for gold.
No martingale. No grid. No averaging down. Every position opens with a hard stop
loss already attached, and the account cannot lose more in a day than the limit
you set.
HOW IT TRADES
Kestrel waits for four things to line up on a closed H1 bar:
1. Price closes outside a 55-bar channel by an ATR-scaled margin, and the previous
bar was still inside it. Only the FIRST close outside counts - the EA does not
chase a move that has already run.
2. Volatility is expanding: current ATR is above its own 50-period baseline.
A breakout in a sleeping market is noise.
3. ADX confirms the market is actually trending.
4. The H4 regime is not leaning against the trade.
The breakout bar must close as a real body, not a wick, so a single spike through a
level does not qualify.
BACKTEST RESULTS - XAUUSD H1
Tickmill history, 10,000 USD deposit, 1:100 leverage, broker spread.
The 2019-2026 line is exactly what the DEFAULT settings produce - the account
guards never engaged. The split periods were measured with guards disabled.
2019.01 - 2026.09 net +1,555 profit factor 1.26 max equity DD 6.61% 278 trades
2019.01 - 2023.12 net +1,125 profit factor 1.31 max equity DD 6.61% 178 trades
2024.01 - 2026.09 net +313 profit factor 1.15 max equity DD 5.96% 97 trades
The 2024-2026 period was NOT used to choose the settings. The parameters come from a
EURUSD optimisation and were applied to gold unchanged, so gold is out-of-sample in
both the symbol and the time dimension.
Re-run on REAL TICKS over 2024-2026: net +349, profit factor 1.18, max DD 5.24%.
Modelling quality does not flatter this system.
Long trades win 68.4%, short trades win 69.3% - the edge is not a long bias riding
gold's bull market.
WHAT THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT
They are a backtest. They are not a live track record, they are not a promise, and
past results do not predict future ones. Roughly 36 trades a year means long quiet
stretches and losing streaks of five or more are normal.
Win rate is around 65%, average winner is smaller than average loser, and the edge
is a few percentage points wide. That is what a real, modest edge looks like. If you
want a curve that goes straight up at 95% wins, that product is a martingale and it
will eventually take your account.
RISK MANAGEMENT
- Position size derived from the real stop distance, so risk per trade is the
number you typed - on any account currency, any leverage.
- Daily loss limit, daily profit stop, maximum equity drawdown, maximum trades per
day, minimum margin level. All measured on EQUITY, so floating losses count.
- Choose whether a tripped limit blocks new trades or flattens the account.
- If the drawdown stop engages, the EA says so loudly in the journal and raises an
alert. It never goes quiet without telling you why.
- Funded-account set file available in the comments. Backtested on XAUUSD H1
2019-2026 with that exact file: +6.6%, profit factor 1.30, max equity drawdown
2.83% against its own 5% stop - which never triggered.
EXITS
ATR stop loss - partial close at 1R - break-even - ATR chandelier trailing stop -
take profit at 2x risk - optional time stop.
Everything is expressed in R, so behaviour is identical across volatility regimes.
FILTERS
- Up to three sessions per day, per-weekday switches, Friday flat time,
Monday-open skip.
- Economic calendar filter: pause before and after high-impact releases, optionally
flatten before them. The MT5 calendar is unavailable inside the Strategy Tester,
so this filter is live-only and the dashboard says so.
- Spread guard, defaulted to 40 points - the lowest cap that costs zero trades on
gold in testing.
DASHBOARD
Regime, ADX, volatility ratio, channel levels, spread, session state, news state,
open trades, risk per trade, today's P/L, equity drawdown against your limit, and
the exact reason the EA is not trading right now.
SETUP
Symbol: XAUUSD Timeframe: H1
Deposit: 500 USD minimum, 2,000 USD recommended
Leverage: 1:30 or higher. Any broker with reasonable gold spreads.
Settings: the defaults ARE the validated XAUUSD H1 configuration - attach it
to an XAUUSD H1 chart and it is ready. A prop-firm set file is
posted in the comments.
Session times are broker server time, set for GMT+2/GMT+3. Ask in the comments and
I will give you the shift for your broker.
SUPPORT
Questions answered in the comments within 24 hours. Set files, broker session-time
help, and settings guidance included.
