Peregrine Gold Quant
- Uzmanlar
-
Elie Bou Abdallah
Hi, I'm Elie. I build Expert Advisors for gold (XAUUSD) on MetaTrader 5.
HOW I WORK
Every EA I publish goes through the same process. The rules are written down
before I look at any results. The settings are chosen on one period of history, - Sürüm: 1.10
- Güncellendi: 12 Eylül 2026
- Etkinleştirmeler: 20
## Category and tags
- Category: **Experts**
- Tags: `XAUUSD` `gold` `trend following` `volatility targeting` `Kalman filter` `no martingale`
`prop firm` `risk management` `systematic` `H1`
## Short description
> Systematic trend book for XAUUSD H1: seven volatility-normalised trend signals incl. a Kalman
> filter and a USD factor, volatility-targeted sizing, stop on every position. No martingale, no grid.
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## Full description
PEREGRINE GOLD QUANT - XAUUSD H1
A systematic trend book for gold, built the way systematic funds build one.
No martingale. No grid. No averaging down. Every position carries a protective
stop from the moment it opens.
HOW IT DECIDES
Every closed H1 bar, seven independent trend estimators each give a forecast
between -20 and +20, measured in units of gold's own volatility:
- three exponential moving-average crossovers (hours to two weeks)
- two Kalman-filter trend estimates (a statistical trend model, two speeds)
- two US-dollar trend signals built from EURUSD and USDJPY - gold's biggest
driver, and a signal that is nearly uncorrelated with the gold trend itself
They are combined with a diversification multiplier - the method systematic
funds use to stop correlated signals being counted twice - into one forecast.
The book only holds a position while that forecast is strong enough to pay for
its own costs: it goes long at +10, short at -10, and exits when conviction
falls below 5. Most of the time the answer is "not strong enough", and the EA
waits.
HOW MUCH IT TRADES
Position size comes from a volatility budget, not a lot guess: by default the
book targets 12% annual volatility of your account. Quiet gold gets a larger
position, violent gold a smaller one, and your risk stays roughly constant
through both. Works on any account currency.
BACKTEST - XAUUSD H1, DEFAULT SETTINGS
MT5 Strategy Tester, Tickmill history, 1-minute OHLC, 10,000 USD, 1:100.
Exactly what the free demo runs.
2019.01 - 2026.09 +39.4% profit factor 1.31 max equity drawdown 9.4%
2019 -0.9% 2020 +8.6% 2021 +3.4% 2022 +2.1%
2023 +8.0% 2024 +1.1% 2025 +5.7% 2026 (Jan-Aug) +6.4%
The account guards (5% daily, 20% drawdown) never engaged.
Re-run on REAL TICKS over 2025.01 - 2026.09 at the same default settings:
+16.2%, profit factor 1.78, max equity drawdown 7.3%. Within a few points
of the 1-minute figure for the same months - modelling quality does not
change the result.
HOW THE SETTINGS WERE CHOSEN - AND TESTED
Every setting was fixed using 2019-2023 only, by rules written down before
the results were seen. The 2024-2026 period was then run exactly once. It
passed all four criteria set in advance: Sharpe 0.96, max drawdown 9.0%,
every year positive, and 4x the return per unit of drawdown of our first
gold EA over the same period.
The MQL5 code was then checked against the research model bar by bar: 98% of
its position changes match within two bars.
WHAT THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT
They are a backtest, not a track record, and past results do not predict
future ones.
In 2024-2026 simply holding gold did better - gold roughly doubled and no
two-way trend system keeps up with a straight line. What Peregrine offers is
a different return stream: over 2019-2026 about a third of buy-and-hold's
drawdown, and daily returns that barely move with gold.
2024 was a flat year. Trend systems lose in sideways markets; quiet months
are the system working.
RISK MANAGEMENT
- Protective stop on every position: 4x daily volatility, ratchets only in
your favour. After it fills, no re-entry in that direction until the
signal resets.
- Daily loss limit, maximum equity drawdown (recoverable or permanent),
minimum margin level. Block new exposure or flatten - your choice. A
guard never blocks reducing a position.
- Orders capped at 90% of free margin and at your maximum lot size.
- Never sends orders while the broker's gold session is closed.
- If the risk budget is smaller than the broker's minimum lot, it declines
the trade instead of quietly taking more risk than you set.
- Prop-firm preset (5% vol target, 3% daily, 8% permanent close-all):
+16.4% on 100,000 USD over 2019-2026 with a 4.1% max equity drawdown -
its limits never triggered.
DASHBOARD
The book's state and forecast, every signal's reading, volatility, target vs
held lots, stop level, spread, news, day P/L, drawdown, and the exact reason
the EA is not trading right now.
SETUP
Symbol: XAUUSD Timeframe: H1
Deposit: 5,000 USD minimum at defaults, 10,000 recommended
Leverage: 1:30 or higher
Broker: EURUSD and USDJPY should be available (found automatically,
suffixes included). Without them the EA runs on its five gold
signals.
Settings: the defaults ARE the tested configuration. No session times to
adjust - the book trades around the clock.
Presets (Conservative, Growth, Prop firm) are posted in the comments.
SUPPORT
Questions answered in the comments within 24 hours.
