Connors PercentB

Larry Connors TPS – PercentB - (Bollinger Band %)

A professional implementation of Larry Connors' Percent B strategy, designed to systematically capture high-probability short-term reversals in equity markets.

This system uses the Bollinger Band %b indicator to identify when price has moved to a statistical extreme relative to its recent volatility envelope. When %b drops near zero, price is at or below the lower Bollinger Band — a quantified oversold condition that this EA captures with disciplined, rule-based execution.

Core Edge

Bollinger Bands adapt to market volatility, expanding in volatile markets and contracting in quiet ones. The %b indicator normalizes price position within the bands to a 0-to-1 scale:

  • When %b drops below 0.2, price is in the lower 20% of its volatility envelope
  • The bands widen in volatile markets and narrow in quiet ones
  • The oversold signal is self-calibrating across different market environments
  • No fixed thresholds to re-optimize -- %b adapts automatically

Unlike fixed-threshold indicators, Bollinger Band %b automatically adjusts for current volatility, making it one of the most adaptive mean reversion signals available.

Research Foundation

Based on Larry Connors' application of Bollinger Band %b from his published research on short-term mean reversion strategies. John Bollinger's original bands and %b indicator provide the statistical framework, while Connors' contribution is the specific entry/exit threshold rules optimized for short-term trading.

Strategy Rules

Long side:

  • Entry: Percent B drops below 0.2 (default) while price is above the SMA trend filter
  • Exit: Percent B rises above 0.5 (default)

Short side (disabled by default):

  • Entry: Percent B rises above 0.8 (default) while price is below the SMA trend filter
  • Exit: Percent B drops below 0.5 (default)

The default settings use Connors' original Percent B exit only. Optional take profit and N-bar timeout exits have been added as enhancements for traders who want additional exit control — both are OFF by default.

Two entry modes are available:

  • Standard: single entry per signal
  • Aggressive: adds one additional position on deeper oversold readings

Typical System Behaviour

  • High win rate (often 70 to 80 percent depending on market and settings)
  • Small, consistent gains per trade
  • Occasional drawdowns during strong trending markets
  • Performs best on liquid equity indices and ETFs

This is a mean reversion system, not a trend-following strategy. It profits from short-term pullbacks rather than large directional moves.

Who This EA Is For

Ideal for:

  • Traders building multi-strategy portfolios
  • Users familiar with systematic trading concepts
  • Traders targeting consistency over aggressive returns

Not suitable for:

  • "Set and forget" users expecting constant profits
  • Traders who cannot tolerate temporary drawdowns
  • Users seeking high-risk, high-return systems

Key Features

  • Fully automated execution on MetaTrader 5
  • Multi-symbol trading: up to 10 markets from a single chart
  • Three position sizing modes: Fixed Lots, Dollar Value, and Account Percentage
  • Automatic currency conversion for cross-currency instruments
  • Adaptive Bollinger Band exit logic that adjusts for market volatility
  • Standard and Aggressive entry modes
  • Optional enhanced exits: Take Profit (%) and N-Bar Timeout
  • Built-in performance dashboard with win rate, P&L, average trade, and open positions
  • Alerts via chart popups, push notifications, and email

Recommended Markets

Best suited for:

  • US equity indices: S&P 500 (US500), NASDAQ 100 (NDX100/US100), Dow Jones (US30)
  • Other liquid indices: Russell 2000 (US2000), ASX 200, DAX 40, FTSE 100
  • Equity ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, XLK

Individual equities can be traded but carry higher risk. Single stocks are inherently more volatile than indices and ETFs, and their downside risk during company-specific events is substantially larger. If trading individual equities, use conservative position sizing and always backtest first.

Not recommended for Forex or commodities unless specifically tested. Do not mix asset classes in the same EA instance.

Screenshots

Screenshots show individual trade examples on SPY with entry and exit markers, Bollinger Band levels, %b values, and strategy details.

Part of a Professional EA Series

This EA is one of 9 mean reversion strategies available from M.Wills. All target the same core edge — short-term pullbacks in trending markets — but each uses a different signal to identify when that pullback has gone far enough. Running multiple uncorrelated entry signals together can reduce drawdowns, improve consistency, and smooth equity curves.

The series includes:

  • Connors TPS (scale-in with RSI)
  • Connors RSI2 (RSI extreme readings)
  • Connors Double 7s (7-day price channel)
  • Connors Percent B (Bollinger Band %b)
  • Bandy Naive MR (consecutive down days)
  • Bandy PIRDPO (detrended price oscillator)
  • Bandy RVI2 (relative vigor index)
  • Bandy DV2 (close-to-midpoint momentum)
  • Bandy Z-Score (statistical z-score)

Expert Advisor Settings

General Settings

Magic Number (default: 12345) - Unique identifier for this EA's trades. Use different numbers when running multiple EAs on the same account to prevent trade conflicts.

Trade Entry Mode (default: Open of Next Bar) - Controls when trades are executed:

  • OPEN OF NEXT BAR: Places trades at the next bar open. Best for backtesting.
  • CLOSE OF THIS BAR: Executes near the daily session close. Recommended for live trading.
  • EXACT TIME: Executes at a user-defined time each day using the broker's server clock.

Exact Time (default: 23:54) - The time in HH:MM format used when Trade Entry Mode is set to Exact Time.

Timeframe (default: Current) - The chart timeframe for analysis. Daily is recommended.

Position Sizing

Sizing Mode (default: Lot Size) - Determines how position size is calculated:

  • LOT SIZE: Uses a fixed number of lots per trade entry.
  • TRADE VALUE $: Allocates a fixed dollar amount per trade, automatically converted to the correct lot size.
  • ACCOUNT BALANCE %: Allocates a percentage of the current account balance per trade.

Position Size (default: 0.01) - The value applied to the selected sizing mode.

Max Margin % of Equity (default: 30.0) - Safety limit that caps how much margin a single trade can consume relative to account equity. Before every trade, the EA calculates the required margin and checks whether it would exceed this percentage of current equity. If it would, the trade is skipped and a message is logged to the Journal. This prevents accidental over-leverage on brokers with high minimum lot sizes. Set to 0 to disable.

Symbol Management

Additional Symbols (default: blank) - Comma-separated list of additional symbols to trade from a single chart (e.g. US500,NDX100,ASX200). Leave blank to trade only the chart symbol.

Max Symbols Open at Once (default: 2) - Maximum number of symbols that can have active trades simultaneously.

Indicator Settings

Bollinger Band Period (default: 20) - The lookback period for the Bollinger Band moving average.

Bollinger Band Std Deviation (default: 2.0) - The number of standard deviations for the upper and lower bands.

Long System

Enable Long (default: true) - Toggles long (buy) trading on or off.

Entry Mode (default: Standard) - Controls whether to take one entry or scale into additional positions on deeper oversold readings.

Trend Filter: Price > SMA (default: true) - Long trades are only taken when price is above the moving average, ensuring trades align with the broader uptrend.

Trend Filter: SMA Period (default: 200) - The lookback period for the trend filter.

Entry: %b Below (default: 0.2) - When %b drops below this level, a long entry is triggered. A value of 0.2 means price is in the bottom 20% of the Bollinger Band range.

Exit: %b Above (default: 0.8) - When %b rises above this level, long positions are closed. A value of 0.8 means price has reached the upper 80% of the band range.

Exit: Take Profit % (default: 0.0) - Percentage-based profit target. Disabled by default — the Percent B exit is Connors' original exit mechanism. Set to a percentage value to add a profit target as an additional exit layer.

Exit: N-Bar Timeout (default: 0) - Maximum bars to hold a position. Disabled by default. Set to a non-zero value to add a time-based exit.

Aggressive: 2nd Entry Multiplier (default: 1.0) - When Entry Mode is set to Aggressive, this multiplier determines additional entry sizing.

Short System

Enable Short (default: false) - Toggles short (sell) trading on or off. Disabled by default.

Entry Mode (default: Standard) - Controls whether to take one entry or scale into additional positions on deeper overbought readings.

Trend Filter: Price < SMA (default: true) - Short trades are only taken when price is below the moving average, ensuring trades align with the broader downtrend.

Trend Filter: SMA Period (default: 200) - The lookback period for the trend filter.

Entry: %b Above (default: 0.8) - When %b rises above this level, a short entry is triggered.

Exit: %b Below (default: 0.2) - When %b drops below this level, short positions are closed.

Exit: Take Profit % (default: 0.0) - Percentage-based profit target for short positions. Disabled by default.

Exit: N-Bar Timeout (default: 0) - Maximum bars to hold a short position before closing at market. Disabled by default.

Aggressive: 2nd Entry Multiplier (default: 1.0) - When Entry Mode is set to Aggressive, this multiplier determines additional entry sizing.

Display Settings

Show Dashboard (default: true) - Displays the on-chart information panel showing all active settings and current trade status.

Font Size (default: 20) - Text size for the dashboard display.

Show Trade Metrics (default: true) - Includes performance statistics in the dashboard: total trades, win/loss ratio, accuracy, average trade, and cumulative P&L.

Metrics Start Date (default: 2000.01.01) - Starting date for performance calculations.

Alerts and Notifications

Chart Alerts (default: false) - Enable on-chart popup alerts when trade signals are generated.

Push Notifications (default: false) - Enable mobile push notifications for trade signals. Requires push notifications to be configured in the MetaTrader 5 terminal.

Email Notifications (default: false) - Enable email notifications for trade signals. Requires email to be configured in the MetaTrader 5 terminal settings.

Backtesting and Execution Notes

This strategy is designed for entry at the close of the trading day, when the signal is first identified. Backtesting research shows that entering at the close provides a measurable edge over waiting for the next day's open.

  • Default mode: Open of Next Bar (required for MQL5 Market validation)
  • Recommended for live trading: Close of This Bar, or Exact Time (1-2 minutes before market close)
  • Set Exact Time to match your broker's daily close (e.g. 23:54 for a server that closes at 23:55)

Backtesting tips:

  • Use "1 minute OHLC" or higher tick model for accurate results on daily bars
  • Do not use "Open prices only" for daily timeframe strategies
  • Close of This Bar and Exact Time modes may not function correctly in the Strategy Tester

Additional notes:

  • Do not mix different asset classes in the same EA instance
  • For Forex and Metals, use the Lot Size position sizing method only -- Trade Value and Account Percentage modes are designed for stocks and indices

Requirements

  • MetaTrader 5 platform (Hedging or Netting account)
  • Minimum recommended leverage: 1:30
  • Daily timeframe preferred
  • All symbols must be available in your broker's Market Watch

Support

If you need custom adjustments or have questions, leave a comment with your email and we will get back to you. Always test the EA on a demo account before running it on a live account.

Risk Disclosure

This EA trades mean reversion setups using Bollinger Band %b readings. However, %b can remain at extreme levels during sustained trends as the bands adjust, and exits may not prevent losses during severe drawdowns. Backtests use historical data and do not account for slippage, partial fills, or changing market conditions. Proper position sizing relative to account equity is essential. Always test with demo accounts before trading live. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


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