Kestrel XAU MT5
- エキスパート
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Maalik Kaiser Vanat
I bring over five years of system development experience to the market, specializing in robust, fully automated trading architecture. The approach is entirely data-driven: real market logic, transparent risk, and absolutely no martingale or grid systems. I don't believe in "holy grail" algorithms or - バージョン: 1.0
- アクティベーション: 5
KESTREL: Small-Account Gold EA with Tight Stops and a High Win Rate (XAUUSD)
Most gold EAs either need a large account or rely on wide stops, grids or martingale to keep their win rate high. Kestrel is built the other way round. It uses a tight stop, a fixed take-profit twice the size of the stop, and only ever holds one trade at a time. That makes it practical on small accounts at the minimum 0.01 lot, while still winning around 3 out of every 4 trades in backtesting.
HOW IT TRADES
- Kestrel trades gold only at key price levels that the whole market watches. When price breaks through one of these levels for the first time in a session, Kestrel enters in the breakout direction.
- Two level families are used: major psychological price levels, and the previous month's extremes. Both proved robust across 2019-2026 and in both directions (longs and shorts both profitable).
- Every trade has a fixed take-profit and a tight broker-side stop-loss, placed with the order. The target is twice the stop.
- Break-even protection moves the stop to lock in profit once the trade is moving in your favour.
- Only one position at a time, and a maximum holding time, so trades are short and controlled.
- Trades only during the active part of the gold trading day. Nothing is held overnight or over the weekend.
BUILT FOR SMALL ACCOUNTS
- Minimum lot: 0.01. At today's gold price, a losing trade at 0.01 lots costs about $8 and a full winning trade makes about $16.
- One trade at a time means losses cannot stack up across many open positions.
- Worst historical dip at a fixed 0.01 lot: about $80.
- Minimum deposit about $150-200 at 0.01 lots; $300 or more recommended.
HIGH WIN RATE WITHOUT WIDE STOPS
- Win rate: about 76% in backtesting (67% on 2026 real-tick data).
- Full wins are twice the size of losses, so the win rate does not depend on a hidden huge stop-loss.
- NO grid, NO martingale, NO averaging down, NO recovery tricks.
VERIFIED BACKTEST (Pepperstone, Jan 2019 - Sep 2026, $10,000, default 0.5% risk per trade, 1-minute OHLC)
- Trades: 868 (about 190 per year at current gold prices)
- Win rate: 75.8%
- Profit factor: 1.57
- Maximum equity drawdown: 6.8%
- Net profit: +$7,852
- Long trades profit factor 1.58, short trades profit factor 1.63
SMALL-ACCOUNT BACKTEST (fixed 0.01 lots, same period)
- Win rate 75.8%, profit factor 1.60, net profit +$727, worst dip $80
ROBUSTNESS AND STRESS TESTS
- Real-tick data (Jan-Sep 2026): profit factor 1.33, win rate 67%
- Random execution delay (slow fills): unchanged (profit factor 1.57)
- Second broker with a different price feed and server clock: profit factor 1.55, win rate 75.8%
- Re-priced at $7 per lot round-trip commission: profit factor 1.55
AUTOMATIC BROKER CLOCK DETECTION
Kestrel works out your broker's server time zone by itself, including daylight-saving changes, both live and in the Strategy Tester. There are no GMT offsets to set.
STRATA RESEARCH DASHBOARD
- Live dashboard: balance, equity, open trade, today's and this week's P/L, and rolling win rate.
- Execution-quality monitor: a 0-100 score from ping, spread and slippage, plus a 60-minute spread chart.
- Equity-curve viewer, engine statistics and a full backtest tab.
- 7 themes, or keep your original MT5 chart colours with one click.
SETUP
1. Attach Kestrel to ONE XAUUSD chart (any timeframe; M15 recommended).
2. If your broker's gold symbol has a different name (for example XAUUSD.a or GOLD), enter it in the inputs, or leave the symbol blank and attach to that chart.
3. Small account: set Position size to "Fixed lot size" and LotSize to 0.01 (preset included). Larger account: keep "Percent of balance" (default 0.5% per trade).
4. Enable Algo Trading.
REQUIREMENTS
- MetaTrader 5
- A low-spread / raw-spread broker is recommended
- The terminal must be running during the trading day (a VPS is recommended)
- Minimum deposit: about $150-200 at 0.01 lots (recommended $300+)
IMPORTANT
- Kestrel trades only when its levels are reached, so some days have no trade. Expect about 3-5 trades a week at current gold prices.
- Flat or slightly losing years are possible: 2022 was slightly negative and 2024 roughly flat in testing.
- Live results are likely to sit closer to the real-tick figures than the 1-minute backtest.
- Backtest results are historical simulations and do not guarantee future results. Test on a demo account first and trade only with money you can afford to lose.
