Bitcoin Apex Predator

 Short description

Long-only trend-following EA for Bitcoin. It stays in cash during bear markets and only takes positions while a confirmed long-term bullish regime is in place.

What it does

The EA works in three layers, and only trades when all three agree:

1. Regime layer. Determines whether Bitcoin is in a phase worth participating in at all. While this layer says no, the EA does not trade and simply stays in cash. This is what keeps it out of bear markets instead of bleeding through them.
2. Trend layer. Once the regime is favourable, this layer confirms that the longer-term direction has actually turned up. Only then is the buy engine armed.
3. Entry layer. With the first two aligned, the EA waits for a breakout out of a recent consolidation, and requires the market to be moving enough for that breakout to mean something. Quiet, rangebound conditions are skipped.

Once positioned, it adds gradually as the move develops and trails a wide stop behind price, so a trend can run without being cut short by ordinary pullbacks. It blocks new entries when price has stretched too far from its own longer-term average, and closes everything when the long-term trend turns down.

It is not a martingale and not a grid. Position size comes from a fixed percentage of capital and the stop distance; it never increases after a loss. Every position carries a stop loss from the moment it is opened.

Requirements

• Symbol: BTCUSD, or your broker's equivalent Bitcoin CFD
• Timeframe: H1
• Account: hedging or netting, leverage enabled
• Broker: low Bitcoin spread. The EA skips entries above a configurable spread cap
• Minimum deposit: see risk profiles

Risk profiles

Pick one. These drawdown figures are historical simulation results, not a forecast and not live trading results.

Raising risk did not improve the risk-adjusted result in testing: moving from Aggressive to Very aggressive raised net profit by 10.6% while raising drawdown by 32.3%, and cut the recovery factor from 1.75 to 1.23.

Do not raise risk beyond these profiles. This is the tested range. Settings well above it produce notional exposure many times account equity, where a small adverse move can consume the account.

Backtest results

Primary evidence — 2023.01.01 to 2026.07.10, H1

• Modelling: real ticks, history quality 93%, 6,507,397 ticks processed
• Trades: 161
• Aggressive profile: PF 1.46 · Recovery 1.75 · Sharpe 0.93 · Max equity drawdown 24.69%
• Very aggressive: PF 1.36 · Recovery 1.23 · Sharpe 0.74 · Max equity drawdown 32.67%

Full-cycle context — 2017.01.01 to 2026.08.22, H1

• Modelling: real ticks, history quality 90%
• Trades: 207
• Result: PF 1.81 · Recovery 3.57 · Max equity drawdown 19.71% (Balanced profile)

An honest note on the long test: it includes an exceptional bull run, which inflates the result relative to what an ordinary cycle would produce. It is shown to illustrate how the EA behaves across a full Bitcoin cycle — staying out at the bottom, participating in the expansion, returning to cash — and not as an expectation of future returns. Tick data quality in the earliest years is lower than in the more recent test.

Settings

Only risk and account management are configurable. The strategy parameters are fixed and optimized; they are not exposed, so there is nothing to break by accident.

• InpRiskPercent  (1.3) — Risk per trade, as % of allocated capital
• InpMaxOpenPositions  (2) — Maximum number of simultaneous positions
• InpCapitalSharePct  (100.0) — % of the account balance allocated to this EA
• InpMaxLeverage  (0.0) — Total exposure cap, as a multiple of equity (0 = disabled)
• InpMaxPositionSize  (0.0) — Maximum size per order, in asset units (0 = disabled)
• InpTradeWeekends  (true) — Allow trading on weekends
• InpMaxSpreadPoints  (50000) — Skip entries when the spread exceeds this value, in points
• InpMagicNumber  (7) — Order identifier
• InpShowChartInfo  (true) — Show the status panel on the chart
• InpPanelCorner ,  InpPanelFontSize ,  InpPanelTheme  — panel position, size and colour

Support

After purchase, contact me for installation help and a configuration guide for your broker's Bitcoin symbol.

Risk disclaimer

Trading leveraged instruments carries a substantial risk of loss. Backtest results are historical simulations and do not represent actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use only capital you can afford to lose, and test on a demo account first.