Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for AUD/USD - page 3

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.24 08:51

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Construction Work and 15 pips price movement

2016-08-24 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Construction Work Done]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Construction Work Done] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of construction projects completed.

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  • "The trend estimate for total construction work done fell 1.9% in the June quarter 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total construction work done fell 3.7% to $47,419.0m in the June quarter."

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AUD/USD M5: 15 pips price movement by Australia Construction Work news event



Sergey Golubev
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AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 28.08 - 04.09: daily correction to the possible bearish reversal

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.27 15:03

Daily price is breaking 0.7583 support level to below for the daily secondary correction within the primary bullish trend.

  • The price is breaking descending triangle pattern to below for the local downtrend as the secondary correction to be continuing.
  • Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is located above Ichimoku cloud indicating the future possible breakdown to be started in the near future.
  • Trend Strength indicator and Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the trend as the correctional one.

The bearish reversal level is 0.7420 support, and if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal will be started.

If D1 price breaks 0.7583 support level on close bar together with descending triangle pattern to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be continuing.
If D1 price breaks 0.7420 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 0.7755 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7755 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.7420 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction
Resistance
Support
0.76900.7583
0.77550.7420

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : correction

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.30 07:13

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and 15 pips price movement

2016-08-30 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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AUD/USD M5: 15 pips range price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 16:40

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2016-09-06 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

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"The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 51.4 percent in August, 4.1 percentage points lower than the July reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased substantially to 51.8 percent, 7.5 percentage points lower than the July reading of 59.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 85th consecutive month, at a notably slower rate in August. The New Orders Index registered 51.4 percent, 8.9 percentage points lower than the reading of 60.3 percent in July. The Employment Index decreased 0.7 percentage point in August to 50.7 percent from the July reading of 51.4 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.1 percentage point from the July reading of 51.9 percent to 51.8 percent, indicating prices increased in August for the fifth consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August."

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AUD/USD M5: 52 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.07 08:14

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Gross Domestic Product and 28 pips range price movement

2016-09-07 01:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • The Australian economy grew by 0.5% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the June quarter.
  • Final consumption expenditure increased 0.8%, contributing 0.6 percentage points to growth in GDP.
  • Private non-financial corporations Gross operating surplus increased 2.9% while Compensation of employees increased 0.5%.
  • The Terms of trade increased by 2.3% in seasonally adjusted terms.

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AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by Australian GDP news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 08:47

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 37 pips price movement

2016-09-08 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -3.25B
  • forecast data is -2.70B
  • actual data is -2.41B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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AUD/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.13 12:57

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Rejected at 0.77 Figure (based on the article)

H4 price is on bearish condition located below 100 SMA/200 SMA: price was bounced from 0.7731 resistance level to below for the breakdown with the bearish reversal. Fow now, the price is on bearish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels: 0.7567 resistance and 0.7493 support.

  • "The Australian Dollar faltered at familiar resistance near 0.77 against its US counterpart having rebounded as expected after forming a Morning Star candlestick pattern. The bounce saw a retest of broken trend line support-turned-resistance, with subsequent losses potentially marking longer-term down trend resumption."
  • "Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. Opting for the sidelines seems prudent for now, waiting for the pair to offer a better-defined opportunity to sell in line with the emerging bearish bias."

If H4 price breaks 0.7567 resistance level to above on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If H4 price breaks 0.7493 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7567 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.7493 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
0.75670.7493
0.7731N/A

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.14 08:36

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment and 12 pips range price movement

2016-09-14 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment] = Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.

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From thebull.com.au article:

"Consumer confidence: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment rose by 0.3 per cent in September to 101.4. The confidence index is up 8.0 per cent on a year ago. The survey was conducted between September 5 and September 9. That is, the survey period covered the interest rate decision and economic growth data."
"Wisest place for savings: Banks (chosen by 29.9 per cent of respondents) were regarded as the wisest place for new savings from “Pay Debt” (21.0 per cent) and Real Estate (15.4 per cent)."

"Less certain: Over 5 per cent of respondents don’t know the best place to put new savings."

"These are uncertain times. And that is shown by the views of Aussie consumers regarding the best place to put new savings. Before 2015, Aussie consumers had firm views about where to put new savings. But over the past year, the proportion of people unsure about the best place to put new savings has lifted to the highest levels on record. In March this year 7 per cent of people said that they didn’t know the wisest place for savings. The latest survey result showed that the proportion of undecided consumers was still high at 5.3 per cent."

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AUD/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.15 08:10

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and 29 pips price movement

2016-09-15 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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  • Employment decreased 3,900 to 11,963,700. Full-time employment increased 11,500 to 8,166,100 and part-time employment decreased 15,400 to 3,797,700.
  • Unemployment decreased 10,500 to 713,300. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 14,900 to 496,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 25,400 to 216,400.
  • Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.6%.
  • Participation rate decreased 0.2 pts to 64.7%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 3.9 million hours to 1,656.0 million hours.

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AUD/USD M5: 29 pips price movement by Australia Employment Change news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.20 07:26

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 18 pips price movement

2016-09-20 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From ABC News article:

"Interest rates are likely to remain on hold in the foreseeable future, with the Reserve Bank of Australia flagging that growth remains in line with expectations, and the RBA remains unperturbed by the housing market."

"Taking into account the recent data, and having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged the current stance of monetary policy was consistent with sustainable growth in the Australian economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the Board said in its minutes.

"The Reserve Bank has an inflation target of between 2 to 3 per cent, and the rate cuts in May and August were prompted by weak inflation figures in the March and June quarters."

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AUD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event