USDJPY Technical Analysis 2016, 13.03 - 20.03: ranging on reversal
Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition: the price is ranging within the following key support/resistance lines:
Span line is below the price for the ranging bearish condition by the direction, and Trend Strength indicator is estimating the local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in the near future for example.
If D1 price will break 110.97
support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.If D1 price will break 114.55
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement
from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish condition will be
started.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : ranging within reversal area
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.13 11:40
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, GBP/USD, USDJPY, and GOLD (based on the article)
- "The Dollar has dropped ahead of the important
meeting deflating some of the hawkish premium, but there is still
considerable bullish interest behind the currency considering it a mild
pace would still be a severe contrast to its counterparts. Furthermore,
we have seen a shift in how the market responds to further drive to the
dovish extreme of the policy spectrum. The BoJ adopted negative rates
and saw the markets flip against the traditional ‘dovish move equates to
bullish capital market, bearish currency’ equation within 24 hours. The
ECB’s stimulus bomb this past week broke the function instantly. The
market response will likely be a settling of confused speculative
GBP/USD - "For the British Pound the big-picture trend remains fairly clear—the GBP/USD
exchange rate has fallen in 14 out of the past 19 months. The biggest
risk remains a British exit (“Brexit”) from the European Union and the
uncertainty it represents. Until there is clarity on that front we do
not expect a material GBP recovery."
USD/JPY - "The
strong JPY year-to-day is likely to have companies expanding more slowly
as their goods have become more expensive by nearly 5% on a global
scale to where they were at the end of 2015, and at the same time,
demand from Asian countries may continue to drop on tightened lending
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold looks to be marking a weekly doji after stretching into a fresh yearly high of 1284.
Heading into the FOMC next week, the long-side is vulnerable for a
pullback but the broader trade remains constructive while above slope
support extending off the July low. Key near-term topside resistance
objectives stand at the 2015 high-week close at 1239 backed by the 2014 high-week reversal close at 1334. A break sub-1151/55 would be needed to reassert the broader short-trend in bullion."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.14 08:20
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Machine Orders and 19 pips range price movement
2016-03-13 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Core Machinery Orders]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - Core Machinery Orders] = Change in the total value of new private-sector purchase orders placed
with manufacturers for machines, excluding ships and utilities.
USDJPY M5: 19 pips range price movement by Japan Machine Orders news event
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.17 16:39
Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: intra-day breakout. This pair is
on bullish intra-day breakout for H4 timeframe: price broke key resistance levels on the way to uptrend and it was bounced from 1.1342 resistance level. Chinkou Span line is located to be above the price indicating the intra-day breakout to be continuing. If the price breaks 1.1342 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be re-started, otherwise - ranging bullish.
GBP/USD: bullish breakout with 1.4481 resistance to be broken for the breakout to be continuing.
The intra-day price (H4) for this pair is on very similar situation with EURUSD: intra-day breakout. The price was bounced from 1.4481 level on the way to uptrend. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend, and Chinkou Span line is indicating the breakout to be continuing in the near future.
USD/JPY: ranging bearish.
Intra-day price (H4) is located to be below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition: the price is started to be ranging within 110.66 support and 112.22 resistance levels. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating for the bearish trend to be continuing, and Chinkou Span line is indicating the ranging bearish condition in the near future.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.19 09:30
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GOLD (based on the article)
- "The S&P 500 and other risk-oriented markets have extended a multi-week climb;
but the fundamental backdrop to support the move is more than porous.
Abrupt market moves are more likely to align to risk aversion; and the
Greenback is likely to revert to a more responsive haven status. Risk or
data moves this week however will be tempered somewhat by holiday
trading conditions as March 25 is Good Friday for many markets."
EUR/USD - "Next week is devoid of high-importance news
events out of Europe, but there are numerous medium and low-importance
announcements on the docket. The highlights are German data on Tuesday,
both the IFO and the German Zew Survey, while Wednesday brings consumer
confidence numbers and Thursday brings PMI’s for the Euro-Zone, France
and Germany. Each of these could be market moving, but given that much
of this data was compiled before the announcement of Mr. Draghi, expect
down-side prints to be somewhat muted while top-side data gets
accentuated by markets."
GBP/USD - "In turn, a slew of positive U.K. data prints
accompanied by waning U.S. interest-rate expectations may fuel a further
short-squeeze in GBP/USD as there appears to be a shift in market
AUD/USD - "The correlation between the currency and the S&P 500
stock index – a benchmark for market-wide risk trends – remains
elevated at 0.92 on rolling 20-day studies. Alternatively, upbeat
outcomes may yield the opposite dynamic."
NZD/USD - "Considering the upcoming data, NZD/USD may
continue to advance into the December high (0.6882), and the key
developments coming out of New Zealand’s construction, retail spending
and business services could make up for the drop in Dairy exports. If
the New Zealand economy remains stable at the same time that the U.S.
Dollar goes without a bid, we could soon move closer to 0.7000."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "From a technical standpoint, gold is trading at some tricky levels
as the pair struggles to solidify a break above a parallel extending
off the 2015 October high as momentum continues to hold below the
70-threshold. The risk remains for a pullback in price with interim
support eyed at 1246/50 backed by soft support at 1225 & our bullish invalidation level at 1194.
We’ll be looking for move lower towards these levels to offer favorable
long-entries with a breach of the highs targeting the 2015 high-week
close backed at 1294 closely by the 2015 high-day close at 1301. Subsequent topside targets are eyed at the 2014 high week reversal close at 1293."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.23 07:43
Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
USD/JPY: back to 110.66
is located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for
the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within 110.66 support level and 113.81 resistance level.
RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging to be continuing.
USDJPY Technical Analysis 2016, 27.03 - 03.04: rally to the bullish reversal
Daily price is on bearish market condition located to be below Ichimoku cloud: the price is on secondary rally which was started in the middle of March this year.Key psy resistance level at 113.00 is going to be crossed by daily price for the rally to be continuing up to 114.87 resistance level as the next bullish reversal target. Chinkou
Span line is located to be near and below the price to be ready for good possible breakout, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price
movement as the secondary ranging condition to be started.
If D1 price will break 110.66
support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be re-started.If D1 price will break 113.00
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be continuing.If D1 price will break 114.87
resistance level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bear market rally
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.28 17:55
A false warning signal for the speculative JPY longs (based on the article)
BNP Paribas publish the article today about "a warning signal for the speculative JPY longs which are running at the highest level since 2011 according to our positioning indicator" - just because "Japanese investors purchasing some JPY 2.3 trn in foreign dent on the week ended March 18."
Let's evaluate this information.
Daily price. If we look at the daily chart so the price is located to be below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish market condition within 114.55 key bullish reversal resistance level and 110.66 key bearish continuation support level. But the price broke symmetric triangle pattern to above together with Chinkou Span line to be going to cross the price to above for good possible breakout with the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition. So, the most likely scenario for daily price is the bear market rally to be continuing with the good breakout possibility: the key resistance level at 114.55 will likely to be broken with the possible reversal to the bullish trend.
Weekly price is on bearish market condition as well to be located below ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the same key s/r levels: 114.55 and 110.66. Chinkou Span line together with Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the trend to be ranging bearish. So, there are 3 most likely scenarios for weekly price movement for the next few months:
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.29 07:39
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Household Spending and 10 pips price movement
2016-03-29 00:30 GMT | [JPY - Household Spending]
[JPY - Household Spending] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers.
(1) "Expenditures for Two-or-more-person HouseholdsThe average of monthly consumption expenditures per
household for February 2016 was 269,774 yen, up 1.6% in nominal terms
and up 1.2% in real terms from the previous year."
(2) "Income and Expenditures for Workers' HouseholdsThe average of monthly income per household stood at
478,624 yen, down 2.0% in nominal terms and down 2.4% in real terms from
the previous year.The average of consumption expenditures per household was
297,662 yen, up 2.2% in nominal terms and up 1.8% in real terms from the
USDJPY M5: 10 pips price movement by Japan Household Spending news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.29 21:17
"The FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged
in January and March, in large part reflecting the changes in baseline
conditions that I noted earlier. In particular, developments abroad
imply that meeting our objectives for employment and inflation will
likely require a somewhat lower path for the federal funds rate than was
anticipated in December.
Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the
Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is
especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the
FOMC's ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to
economic disturbances is asymmetric. If economic conditions were to
strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could
readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize
the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation
was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a
modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate
back to near zero.9
14 pips price movement for EURUSD was immediate effect after Fed Chair Yellen Speech. The medium term situation related to this Speech after publishing it on Federal Reserve website are the following:
1. EURUSD M5: 82 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
2. GBPUSD M5: 106 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
3. USDJPY M5: 55 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
4. GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: 1,406 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event