Random wandering - page 12
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Well, a thousand is a significant sample size in statistics.
I don't care if it's a million.
The issue is not the size of the sample, but the fact that he is roughly fitting the TS to a ready-made piece of the series. On the forward, he's going to lose.
That is, on any ready row of Heads/Resque, you can find a TS that will show a profit from any number of positive bets.
And in the real game it will lose.
But if you analyse the behaviour of coin tosses and take the result as a conditional win, that's a different matter.
The outcome graph will deviate to one side or the other from the conditional zero, i.e. the first flip.
In some cases there will be long series or waves in one or the other direction.
On an infinite sample we will see the patterns of adding up the results.
And it is a matter of technique to get a good result from the pattern analysis.
So, conditionally, you can get a conditional profit, but only on a large sample, not on the next flip of a coin.
I definitely won't make a profit on a coin flip)
But if you analyse the behaviour of coin tosses and take the result as a conditional win, that's a different matter.
The outcome graph will deviate to one side or the other from the conditional zero, i.e. the first flip.
In some cases there will be long series or waves in one or the other direction.
On an infinite sample we will see the patterns of adding up the results.
And it is a matter of technique to obtain the good result of pattern analysis.
So, conditionally, you can get a conditional profit, but only on a large sample, not on the next flip of a coin.
Patterns?
On a random coin toss?
Paternoster?
On a random coin?
The coin is not random. It has a series of flips. The results of the flips add up to patterns on the chart, like on any financial chart.
The coin is not random. It has a series of throws. The results of the throws add up to patterns on the chart, just like on any financial chart.
I don't want to upset you, but no matter how you divide a series of coins into series with the same number of observations - all the Eagle-Resque sequences in those series will be absolutely equal probability.
In fact
All
The coin is not random. It has a series of throws. The results of the throws add up in patterns on the chart, like any financial chart.
Well, for example, if you break five outcomes at a time, the probability of a series of RRRRRs is equal to the probability of a series of RORRs
I don't want to upset you, but no matter how you split a series of coins into series with the same number of observations - all the Eagle-Rescue sequences in those series will be absolutely equal.
In fact
All
I want to disappoint you.
The series with the same result will be either one way or the other. BUT the series will have a different number of identical results. These differences will give a skew in the direction of the trend. Over time it will even out and tend to 0 in infinity. BUT to0 in infinity on average!!! And the graph will dance around "be good"))
Now imagine that you are communicating with an automaton.
You're explaining to him that SB is... and impossible...
And he demands a row from you and proves like two fingers on the pavement that he has a TC for that row that "earns".
You're explaining to him that he's just fitting the vehicle to the ready-made section of the row, and he's answering with another row and another adjusted vehicle.
You explain to him about the forward test, and he quotes you from hydrodynamics.
You explain it to him and he gives you a "wild card" .....
You say that the patient is done with advertising, but in my opinion this is his traditional foreplay with emotion (to attract attention). There should be a commercial next)