Buy yourself some Mechel PJSC, AP Dividend 2019 amounted to 15.68% , Dividend 18.21 roubles per share - page 8
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There is also hidden inflation. The price of a commodity does not change, but the volume decreases. For example, if a packet of granulated sugar cost 1 kg. 30 rubles. Now you can meet a packet of 0.9 kg for the same 30 rubles. I do not speak about deterioration of quality.
it is not inflation but a marketing ploy, but if we call it by its name, it is simply a fraud
on the subject of buying stocks more favourably, sure.... but the important thing is not to "buy on the hay".
If you count over time, e.g. a year, if your stock fell by 10%, then your current loss for the year is 10%. It does not matter whether you close your position and invest later in another asset, or do not close it and continue investing in the same asset, it simply means that you have 10% less funds available at the end of the year. Maybe your great-grandchildren will close the position)
Other than that I agree.
This so-called paper profit/loss is not yet fixed, in the financial statements of many companies that have shares on their balance sheet these figures are reflected as a revaluation of the value.
it's not inflation, it's a marketing ploy, but if you call it what it is, it's just cheating
on the subject of more profitable buying stocks, absolutely.... but it's not all about "buy on the hay".
That's the whole point. It's only with stocks that the expression "buy cheap, sell expensive" works. To buy shares of any issuer at the time when the market evaluates them below their real value, you must study the financial statements of the issuer. There are different valuation methodologies. If the current market price of a share is above its real value, it is highly probable that the share price will fall and it is not profitable to buy it at the moment.
That's the whole point. The expression "buy cheap, sell dear" is the only one that works with stocks. To buy shares of an issuer at a time when the market is pricing them below their real value, you have to study the issuer's financial statements. There are different valuation methods for this purpose. If the current market price of a share is higher than its real value, it is highly probable that the price of such share will drop and it is not profitable to buy it at the moment.
i know, i sit on smartlab regularly, i know about all this science, but in general accounting studies don't work, or rather it works like everything connected to markets 50/50.
as an example, the famous Gazprom, very poor reporting in 2018, fantastic growth and dividend payout 2019 and then the company's new policy on future dividend payments, the bottom line is the company got long term investors on the hawks ))))
yes i understand all this, i sit regularly on smartlab, i am aware of all this all-scientific scholarship, but in general the study of reports does not work, or rather it works like anything related to the markets 50/50
As an example, the famous Gazprom, very poor reporting in 2018, fantastic growth and dividend payout 2019 and then the company's new policy on future dividend payments, the bottom line is the company got long term investors on the hawks ))))
So it's the investors' own fault for buying at the highs. After the explosive growth on the news it is better to wait for correction and rollback, and then buy. And first of all, you have to look at the financial statements, and then the charts. At that time, I valued Gazprom at 500 rubles per share, which makes the company look undervalued. I think the political environment also affects the value. The gas wars are disturbing the company.
...
It all depends on the type of stock portfolio you are building. If your goal is to build a value portfolio (i.e. a portfolio designed to grow the value of a stock), then calculation of the real value of the issuer applies. If the market undervalues a stock, then it is bought with the expectation that its price will rise in the future. For example, VTB. I bought it below its real value. It's worth about 5 kopecks now. It rose sharply on the news that VTB was promising an increase in dividend payments. At the time the dividend % was about 4%. But it was up more than 10%.
If your goal is to build a profitable portfolio, then dividends paid by the issuer are a priority. If a company pays a good dividend year after year (dividend divided by the share price multiplied by 100% >= % of Central Bank rate plus risk premium) As a rule, this company is valued by the market above its real value. For example MTS. I bought it above its real value, but I also have a dividend of over 12% per annum. If MTS suddenly changes its dividend policy and starts paying a lower dividend, then the value of such a company could be severely depreciated.
I think the political environment is also affecting the cost. Gas wars are hindering the company.
For the second time this week I stumble over references to a certain book "Money Without Fools", the author is already promoting his book on RBC, perhaps it is worth attention, but in general the author writes very lucidly, I have not believed reports or news for a long time
https://quote.rbc.ru/news/article/5e1dc1ad9a794753d70bbc87?from=from_main
Scenario analyses cannot be trusted
Often there is a literary creation handed out as a market analysis. Something like "general pressure on exporters caused by further strengthening of the rouble against the background of the Central Bank policy of maintaining the discount rate, caused, first of all...". Well, you get the idea.
This isn't even an essay on "How I, Boy Vasya, spent my summer". It is an essay "How I will spend my summer if my grandmother makes peace with my mother, my allergies go away, my father finds money, and I like volleyball". It's probably a fascinating essay to write. But are you willing to sell dumbbells, for example, on the basis of this essay, or bet on the growth of chess? Well - you can't sell dumbbells. And for some reason you can...
Let's call it "scenario analysis". Alas, but scenario analysis in stock selection more often than not doesn't work. This whole set of "if this, then that, because" constructions is extremely fragile. The approach is bad if only because it cannot be correctly tested on historical data.
We are not talking about inflation here, but about risk. But in general you are right, the Central Bank rate does not cover real inflation and so the purchasing power of money in the bank deposit falls. In these conditions it is more profitable to buy shares than to make a bank deposit. Inflation is the price increase. If prices go up, the price of shares goes up.
It is an incorrect statement in general, and in practice it is useless. The general upward trend in stocks is not prevented from being in a drawdown for 10 years.
Inflation is from money supply growth. Share prices from interest in investment, no direct correlation, only an indirect and very low one.
A quick counter-example: the Mosbirzhi index - 9 years of drawdown, inflation is skyrocketing, guess why) the hint is exactly ruble inflation.
The hell with the RF. US, Dow, flattish chatter for 10 years since 2000. US inflation in 2000-2007 accelerated much more than its average range.
Not a word about the Zazdak at all. Note the tremendous growth in recent years - which began just as inflation was near historical lows, including zero.
In Europe it is even more fun.
For the second time this week I stumbled over the mention of a certain book "Money Without Fools", and here on RBC the author is already promoting his book, perhaps it is worth attention, but in general the author writes very lucidly, I have not believed the reports or the news for a long time
https://quote.rbc.ru/news/article/5e1dc1ad9a794753d70bbc87?from=from_main
I do not know, I have not read the book. If the author urges us not to believe anything, why should we believe the author? There is a philosophical movement called "nihilism", maybe the author is one of them.
Wrong statement in general, and in practice useless. The general trend of rising equities is not prevented from being in a drawdown for 10 years.
Inflation is from money supply growth. Share prices from interest in investment, no direct correlation, only indirect and very low.
A quick counter-example: the Mosbirzh index - 9 years of drawdown, inflation is skyrocketing, guess why) the hint is exactly ruble inflation.
The hell with the RF. US, Dow, flattish chatter for 10 years since 2000. US inflation in 2000-2007 accelerated much more than its average range.
I'm not even talking about Zazdak at all. Note the tremendous growth in recent years - which began just as inflation was near historical lows, including zero.
It is even more fun in Europe.
And how it contradicts rising prices. Increased money supply increases demand. Higher demand causes prices to rise. I associate a rise in share prices with a rise in commodity prices in the sense that the issuer makes more profit from an increase in the price of its products and services and therefore pays more dividends and there is more demand for its shares from investors.
And how this contradicts the rise in prices. An increase in the money supply increases demand. Increased demand causes prices to rise. I associate the growth of share prices with the growth of commodity prices so that the issuer makes more profit from the increase in the price of its products and services, therefore paying more dividends and increasing the demand for its shares from investors.
It also incurs more costs, which results in the same interest income.