Interesting to know ! - page 14
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Утонули два барана.
Yes, you are right!
We should not be distracted by all sorts of nonsense.
Here I want to get back to the subject of this thread: - "Interesting to know!" - And continue to discuss with the traders and programmers of this forum the problem of TRENDS.
As you noticed, I am taking my time here to give a definition of a TREND. And this is for a reason.
This is because it is much more important to understand the TREND than to know its definition.
WHAT IS A TREND?
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Тренд
Trend(pronounced [trand];anglicised fromtrend- trend[1]) is the basictendency for something to change: in mathematics, for example,a time series. Trends can be described by various equations - linear, logarithmic, power-law and so on. The actual type of trend is established on the basis of the selection of its functional model by statistical methods or by smoothing the originaltime series.
Of course, one should not expect from Wikipedia correct and, most importantly, thoughtful definition of the trend (as well as from any other definition).
Therefore let's not be picky about this definition, and let's try to understand - WHAT THE TREND IS?
I do not know about you, but personally I like much more the original meaning of the TREND in the form of ANCHOR !!!
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Тренд_(part_anchor)
Moving down the spindle, we involuntarily get to the point of Anchor TREND, and then to his FIVE (agree, it's also symbolic point, because it was by the heel that goddess Thetis held her son Achilles, when she plunged him into the sacred river Styx https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ахиллесова_пята ).
That is, being in the point of the anchor TREND, the trader unwittingly finds himself in the role of "The Knight at the Crossroads" by Vasnetsov.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Витязь_на_распутье
There is no road in a straight line. And the trader, like the knight at the crossroads, has to make his choice - EITHER going up or down.
Which of these paths is more correct, and on which one should he choose?
But these are just artistic associations of the TREND image.
And what can be said about the essence of the concept?
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Generally speaking, the concept of TREND in trading necessarily has two characteristics:
1) The inheritance of images of original meanings.
2) The ability to predict behaviour (no matter what, right or wrong).
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These two features always allow the trader to distinguish a TREND from all sorts of insinuations, of which this forum is so rich.
Of course, each of these features of the TREND is worthy of careful consideration and study.
...
Here I want to get back to the subject of this thread: - "Interesting to know!" - And continue to discuss with traders and programmers of this forum the problem of TRENDS.
As you noticed, I'm in no hurry to give a definition of TREND here. And this is for a reason.
This is because it is much more important to understand the TREND than to know its definition.
WHAT IS A TREND?
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Тренд
Trend(pronounced [trand];anglicised fromtrend- trend[1]) is the basictendency of something to change: in mathematics, for example,a time series. Trends can be described by various equations - linear, logarithmic, power-law and so on. The actual type of trend is established based on the selection of its functional model by statistical methods or by smoothing the originaltime series.
I did not know that a trend can be described mathematically. I thought it was only philosophical. However, probability theory can certainly help. But does the chart provide enough data to show the trend in full? Isn't fundamental analysis the main thing here?
If TREND, as a notion of trading, reflects the MARKET tendencies, the quantity of parameters necessary for its determination, certainly exceeds the quantity of parameters that can be "squeezed" out of the graphical analysis and entered into the mathematical formula.
The MARKET itself is not fully reflected in the chart. So it seems to me...
zy. I would say that the chart is a shadow of what is happening in the market.I didn't know that a trend could be described mathematically. I thought it was only philosophical. ...
Actually, analytical functions(y = x^2 for example), are an expression of trend. But with one correction, - this trend cannot be broken. If a function expresses a parabola, it will always draw only a parabola. So it is not a trend. It is a predetermination. Although in some ways it resembles a trend...
A trend contains a factor of freedom from absolute certainty, but how to describe it mathematically? A tendency is subject to certainty, but only temporarily. And this factor is incomprehensible to me.
Probably because the number of parameters of the Tendency is never constant. New joining parameters have different weights and can change the direction of the trend. In other words, the Trend is the weights of parameters, on which each of them is a grain of sand of a vortex of chaos. Temporal stability of parameter values and their quantities, ensures the existence of a Trend, unfolding in the mode of certainty, but each new wave of chaos strikes the scales and redistributes the grit-parameters, breaking the Tendency.
Tendency, is a temporary phenomenon. Mathematics only works with a certain number of variables. The variables have to be strictly defined and constant. That is why mathematics can hardly describe a trend or an unstable process.
I didn't know that a trend could be described mathematically. I thought it was only philosophical. However, probability theory can surely help. But, does the chart provide enough data to build a complete picture of the trend? Isn't fundamental analysis the main thing here?
If TREND, as a concept in trading, reflects the MARKET tendencies, the quantity of parameters necessary for its determination must surely exceed the quantity of parameters that can be "squeezed" out of the graphical analysis and entered into the mathematical formula.
The MARKET itself is not fully reflected in the chart. So it seems to me...
zy. I would say that the graph is a shadow of what is happening in the market.A trend described mathematically, as a rule, becomes a NATURAL LAW (fair, or wrong - it doesn't matter).
There are many examples of this. But I'll confine myself to just one.
NEWTON'S LAW OF GRAVITATION.
As you know, the preamble to this law was the work of Robert Hooke, "An Attempt to Prove the Motion of the Earth by Observation" (1674).(Robert Hooke, An Attempt to Prove the Motion of the Earth by Observations.Archived June 21, 2014 atthe Wayback Machine).Back then there was no Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation, but only the TREND OF TREATMENT, which made it possible to formulate this law. It is easy to see that the TEND OF TREATMENT satisfies both conditions of definition of a trend that I have formulated earlier. That is, it 1)inherits the behaviour of observed patterns and 2)Has the ability to predict the behaviour of celestial bodies.
And the theory of probability cannot help you in this matter... (!!!)
The number of parameters of TREND OF TREATMENT, as you may have noticed, is only three - two masses and distance between bodies (and of course, this parameter cannot be the only one!).
This is how I would define a Trend:
A Trend is market processes unfolding in a state of temporal certainty and uniform rhythm, but whose equilibrium exists before colliding with The Element beyond their boundaries. The internally calm and closed state of processes, constantly undermined by Chaos from external borders, but counterbalanced by striving for certainty. And always on a new basis.
A trend described mathematically usually becomes a NATURAL LAW (right or wrong - it doesn't matter).
There are many examples of this. But I'll confine myself to just one.
NEWTON'S LAW OF GRAVITATION.
As you know, the preamble to this law was the work of Robert Hooke, "An Attempt to Prove the Motion of the Earth by Observation" (1674).(Robert Hooke, An Attempt to Prove the Motion of the Earth by Observations.Archived June 21, 2014 atthe Wayback Machine).There was not yet Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation, but only the TREND OF TREATMENT, which made it possible to formulate this law. It is easy to notice that the TEND OF TAGOY meets both conditions of definition of a trend which I have formulated earlier. That is, it 1)inherits the behaviour of observed patterns and 2)Has the ability to predict the behaviour of celestial bodies.
And the theory of probability cannot help you in this matter... (!!!)
The number of parameters of TREND OF TREATMENT, as you may have noticed, is only three - two masses and distance between bodies (and of course, this parameter cannot be the only one!).
Such an example of a Trend is not suitable for trading. It lacks the Freedom factor. Gravity works EVERYWHERE. Also, as always the formulay = x^2 will draw a line on a chart.
The trend has only a fraction of certainty. Its certainty is temporary and non-obvious. It hides in the fog of subjectivity and is hard to separate from it. But in the gravitation example everything is objective and constant.
Your example shows a vector. BUT NOT A TREND.
Feel the uncertainty in Tendency. It promises nothing and cannot be relied upon. (Unlike mathematical formulas and laws of physics).
This is how I would define a Trend:
A Trend is market processes unfolding in a state of temporal certainty and uniform rhythm, but whose equilibrium exists before colliding with The Element beyond their boundaries. The internally calm and closed state of processes, constantly undermined by Chaos from external borders, but counterbalanced by striving for certainty. And always on a new basis.
keep it simple and the power will be with you :-)
The x(eagle) trend is when x(eagle) goes against everybody, becoming the leader of the movement and everybody eventually lines up behind him. This is where the trend ends.
Define things in terms you understand.
Otherwise, like a pimply young man looking for Eternal Love, in a vast World full of Struggles, Beavers and Donkeys (yep, everything must be in capital letters, to emphasize the IMPORTANCE).
In fact, analytical functions(y = x^2 for example) are an expression of a trend. But with one correction, - this trend cannot be broken. If the function expresses a parabola, it will always draw only a parabola. So it is not a trend. It is a predetermination. Although in some ways it resembles a trend...
A trend contains a factor of freedom from absolute certainty, but how to describe it mathematically? A tendency is subject to certainty, but only temporarily. And this factor is incomprehensible to me.
Probably because the number of parameters of the Tendency is never constant. New joining parameters have different weights and can change the direction of the trend. In other words, the Tendency is weights of parameters, on which each of them is a grain of sand of a vortex of chaos. Temporal stability of parameter values and their quantities, ensures the existence of a Trend, unfolding in the mode of certainty, but each new wave of chaos strikes the scales and redistributes the grit-parameters, breaking the Tendency.
Tendency, is a temporary phenomenon. Mathematics only works with a certain number of variables. The variables have to be strictly defined and constant. That is why mathematics can hardly describe a trend or an unstable process.
I don't understand, what prevents predetermination from being seen as one manifestation of a trend?
For example, everyone knows that a stone thrown at an angle to the horizon moves along a parabola. And this is an abstract predetermination as part of the tendency of the stone in the absence of incidental factors. But supposing a strong wind blows, which blows the stone off this very parabola?
As for modern mathematics, many algorithms to describe changing processes have been developed long ago, such as spline methods and many others.
For example, for this very parabola of yours, the representation in the form y = A(x) * x^2.
I don't understand, what prevents predetermination from being seen as one manifestation of a tendency?
For example, everyone knows that a stone thrown at an angle to the horizon moves along a parabola. And this is an abstract predetermination, as part of the tendency of the stone in the absence of side factors. But supposing a strong wind blows, which blows the stone off this very parabola?
As for modern mathematics, many algorithms to describe changing processes have long been developed - these are spline methods and many others.
For example, for this very parabola of yours, the representation in the form y = A(x) * x^2.
Predetermination is Tendency, but only temporarily. And the laws of physics are constant. Therefore, they cannot be cited to describe Tendency. They describe only its constant part, but do not describe its indeterminacy. In short, they are a partial description of a tendency.
(Just as a photograph cannot describe motion without including the imagination of the beholder).
This is how I would define a Trend:
A Trend is market processes unfolding in a state of temporal certainty and uniform rhythm, but whose equilibrium exists before colliding with The Element beyond their boundaries. The internally calm and closed state of processes, constantly undermined by Chaos from external borders, but counterbalanced by striving for certainty. And always on a new basis.
You are free to give and use any definition of your own.
The only question is, who may need your definition, and for what purpose.
I think nobody will need such a definition. Not even you.