Forecasting - page 11

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prikolnyjkent:

(I didn't like the postulates from the first words ... The course is set by the makers, the makers... and only the makers... And as they want ... not some mass of pathetic traders. Proof - EURCHF chart from August 2011 to early 2015)

Yes it's true I get a quote change once a month)) But I have a robot that pulls the same symbols from the Internet and compares them by more than 100 pips). In any case, they may have a look at my trading robot, but I don't think so.
 
dimozg:

It's true that they change my quotes once a month)) But I have a robot that pulls the same tools from sites all over the Internet and compares them over 100 pips). In other words, I don't want to be a trader, but it's also a signal to leave my brokerage company while I still can. No one would take care about $600-800 and even less about it.


Well, I solved this problem in a simpler way.

Unfortunately, I don't plan to post the details


 
ILNUR777:
Efficiency is paltry. It's only for bread, it won't work for hodgepodge.

I'm minding my own business... and my head is lazily turning over all sorts of thoughts.

One of them is to give out...

"...
- What do you mean by "miserable profitability"...
ILNUR777 is trying to say that someone can trade with a STABILIZED high interest rate...?

But, for that, in the data available to him, there would have to be a fairly strong Regularity that would be picked up in five seconds by the computers of serious structures... ...and various gifted individuals... And that would be it! "Regularity is over...

..."


ILNUR777, ... dear,... personally, I couldn't find anything to contradict that thought
What about you...?


 
prikolnyjkent:

I'm minding my own business...

One of them is to give away...

"...
- What do you mean by "paltry efficiency" ...?
ILNUR777 what - are you trying to say that someone can trade, STABILIZING high percentages ...?

But, in order to do that, in the data available to him, there would have to be a rather strong Regularity that would be picked up in five seconds by the computers of the serious structures... ...and various gifted private individuals... And that's it! "Regularity is over...

..."


ILNUR777, ... dear,... personally, I can't find anything to contradict that thought.
What about you?


There are strategies that allow you to profit from the conditions of bent coin, even without being able to make a "forecast" in what direction it is bent, even somewhere discussed here, if I find the branch, just as an example, promising nothing. And your ability to make small profits (if it is indeed true in your case) without a pattern does not mean their absence. Just as the "absence" of a pattern does not mean that the process is SB.
 
One thing is when your strategy squeezes out everything at once, quite another is over several years... I recall the case of a security guard in a factory who stole 250 grams of alcohol every day for ten years, and then one of his friends asked him to buy more and he no longer works there)))
 
I've read the thread and it says that the market is random. But it is not. The market does not have the characteristics of a random process, I have done a lot of research on this subject. It is self-synchronous, it fluctuates from a trend to a flat. And due to that, it changes its condition. I think it aspires to random, but it never achieves that. The reason is that randomness is certainty. We know in advance the characteristics of the random process. But the characteristics of the market, we don't know. The market is more like a flock of flying birds. If enough birds, change their direction, the flock turns, but the amplitude of turns and direction is always different.
 
Maxim Romanov:
I've read the thread, it says the market is random. But it's not. The market doesn't have characteristics of a random process, I've done a lot of research on this subject. It is self-synchronous, it fluctuates from trending to flat. And due to this, it changes its condition. I think it aspires to random, but it will never achieve that. The reason is that randomness is certainty. We know in advance the characteristics of the random process. But the characteristics of the market, we don't know. The market is more like a flock of flying birds. If enough birds, change their direction, the flock turns around, but the amplitude of the turns and the direction is always different.


No matter how poetically beautiful your descriptions of the market are, in fact, if you do NOT KNOW the pattern exists, then it does NOT exist for you.... You simply do not have the ability to use it.

That's why the first question I ask every new adept of 'prediction' is: "... Do you have the STATISTICS of your trades (in pips) made on the signals of your TS (either in a tester, or in real life)? ". For, in fact (!), only the statistics of outcomes makes sense for discussion.

And what is interesting,... The reasoning behind the statistics is VERY different from the "fog" and "cobwebs" which the collectors of forecasting TS manage to make in the process of creation ...

 
prikolnyjkent:


No matter how poetically beautiful your market descriptions are, in fact, if you do NOT KNOW the pattern exists, then it does NOT exist for you... You simply do not have the ability to use it.

That's why the first question I ask every new adept of 'prediction' is: "... Do you have the STATISTICS of your trades (in pips) made on the signals of your TS (either in a tester, or in real life)? ". For, in fact (!), only the statistics of outcomes makes sense for discussion .

And what is interesting,... the WAY of CONSULTATION, arising when looking at statistics, is VERY different from that "fog" and "cobwebs", which builders of predictive TS manage to do in the process of creation ...

I do not predict the market. I am developing in this direction, but slowly. At some point, when I build a complete model of the market, I will be able to make forecasts. I think that making forecasts is a pointless activity without having a model of the process you are forecasting. Now I use another type of trading systems, I find stable pattern and use it, rather the opposite, I change the series of numbers so that some regularity is formed and use it, I like to create and use regularity. But to say that the market is random is fundamentally wrong, because it is not random.
 
Maxim Romanov:
... But to say that the market is random is fundamentally wrong, because it is not random.
It sounds a little different to me: "The market is not random... because it is CONSCIOUSLY CONTROLLED. And the best way to exploit it is the time-honoured principle of Casino" (read: "The randomness in events plus the shift of the VARIETY in favour of Casino")
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