If the market is a game, then why everybody wins? - page 3
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"But still, if it is a game or not remains a subjective matter.
I don't see what is your point? Call it game, call it something else, it doesn't matter."
There are HUGE practical differences, if it's a game or not.
coin toss - a game you can't use statistic to win
chess- a game you also can't use statistics to win, because the other player can use it too
poker- a game you also can't use statistics to win
in all games people use statistics only to know what's happening, never to win a game only with it.
But if you open clothing store, for example, you can use statistics to win, your competitor can use it, and everybody can win, so
that's because a clothing store is not a game. So if i consider the markets a game, or something different, it makes all difference, in the way you can apply statistics
Ok, I see.
You call game the interaction between two or more subjects(not necessarily all of them humans), where each side adapts and acts according to the behaviour of the other(s). And you also call game the interaction with a stochastic, i.e. an unpredictable process.
Therefore the outcome of the game process is unpredictable if prediction is based only on statistics(the history), because it is a constantly changing matter.
From the other hand, you consider the activities, which are based on predictable(prediction based on statistics) processes, not a game, because just following the trend and tendencies based on statistics could bring success.
But is it really so? Can you define the tendencies? And if the markets follow the human actions and the games humans play in finance, economics, politics and so on, how could you be sure that you can win just by statistics?
Consider your example with the clothing store. I am not sure, that all competitors in this business could thrive, just because of the statistics(let's say demand for clothes). There are many other factors involved, some of them may be considered as a game. Often, an unfair one.
The winner takes it all, maybe you have heard this proverb, so well suited to the current times.
Any advice on this Mr Fool ?
Ok, I see.
You call game the interaction between two or more subjects(not necessarily all of them humans), where each side adapts and acts according to the behaviour of the other(s). And you also call game the interaction with a stochastic, i.e. an unpredictable process.
Therefore the outcome of the game process is unpredictable if prediction is based only on statistics(the history), because it is a constantly changing matter.
From the other hand, you consider the activities, which are based on predictable(prediction based on statistics) processes, not a game, because just following the trend and tendencies based on statistics could bring success.
But is it really so? Can you define the tendencies? And if the markets follow the human actions and the games humans play in finance, economics, politics and so on, how could you be sure that you can win just by statistics?
Consider your example with the clothing store. I am not sure, that all competitors in this business could thrive, just because of the statistics(let's say demand for clothes). There are many other factors involved, some of them may be considered as a game. Often, an unfair one.
The winner takes it all, maybe you have heard this proverb, so well suited to the current times.
thanks for answer, so about the topic, what GTA V and a coin toss have in common:
2 sides a winner and a loser, in GTA you play against the main boss, that is a NPC, the same for a coin, you lose, the other side wins. I would like to know just 1 example of a game where there are no winners and losers.
"
Therefore the outcome of the game process is unpredictable if prediction is based only on statistics(the history), because it is a constantly changing matter."
that's the point, in a coin toss, the process is unpredictable, i've been flipping some coins, even with 50% chance, you can have even 10 times the same side in sequence, i think it's really crazy, in a game the rules don't change, so they are the same principle, if you beat someone in chess you can't be sure the next try you'll win, using ONLY statistics, you use another knowledge, like to know who's the player, etc, and knowing the player it's not using statistics, because that information is outside the game itself.
clothing store:
"But is it really so? Can you define the tendencies? And if the markets follow the human actions and the games humans play in finance, economics, politics and so on, how could you be sure that you can win just by statistics?
Consider your example with the clothing store. I am not sure, that all competitors in this business could thrive, just because of the statistics(let's say demand for clothes). There are many other factors involved, some of them may be considered as a game. Often, an unfair one."
all competitors can win, if they are good at this, in a game they don't, so it must have to be something else than a game. That's the point of this topic. If a clothing store is a game, please tell me another game that everybody can win. And everybody can win using statistics, different from a game, you can see what kind of clothes you sold, and then create statistics about that and make more profit, and the other guy with another store, can do the same, and make profit, but in a game, if you use statistics against your opponent, he will use it too, so you get no edge.
so i proved to you that you can make profit using statistics only when it's not a game,
and the final question is: you consider stock market a game?
- if it's a game you can't use statistics to win- already proved
- if it's a game, so show me another game that has no end in time, and everybody can win
my point is to prove that the market is not a game, and if i'm wrong, prove me why i'm wrong, and that you can't use statistics to beat the other side, in any games
Which lead us to the great question : What is a game ?
If the markets are a game, so capitalism is a game, but it seems in this game everybody is winning.
So please someone provide me just 1 example of a another game where:
1- everybody wins.
Although every sentence you made on this thread, starting from the beginning, is false - I don't have the energy to say something about it - and in anyway you will not understand.
Also, your assumption of distinction between games and not games, where statistics could be applied only to one of them is false.
But, here is for that..
games that every body wins
more games without winners
some more and more and more and more
Although every sentence you made on this thread, starting from the beginning, is false - I don't have the energy to say something about it - and in anyway you will not understand.
Also, your assumption of distinction between games and not games, where statistics could be applied only to one of them is false.
But, here is for that..
games that every body wins
more games without winners
some more and more and more and more
May I ask you Amir why you are even bothering to answer him ?
It's beyond my understanding that some smart people are still answering.
WHRoder is perfectly right, he is a troll.
i can prove those examples you gave me have winners and losers, but show me examples of games that never have end in time, like the markets, please
I doubt if you can prove something at all.
Why should I bother? You prove nothing, all this issue is stupid. It is not important if it's a game or not game, for statistics to work. It works in games and in reality - the same.
Statistics is about calculating probabilities of events. It does not matter if the events are part of a game or not.
You can pack each set of events to make it a game - so? Did you change the rules of statistics?
It does not matter if you can win a game only with statistics or not - what matters if statistics forecasts the probabilities of events happening correct or not. And it is correct.
You claim it is correct only in games. So, I claim you have a brain, only on paper.
May I ask you Amir why you are even bothering to answer him ?
It's beyond my understanding that some smart people are still answering.
* And like Freud, I find the case interesting - as MrLuck is very polite, he faces insults (sorry, but not only from me) without returning an insult, which for me is a good sign of good personality, not many people are capable of this - and he seems an interesting guy in person. I think he has good qualities as a human, but some real problems too.
This time I really think it's just the boredom of the markets in the night hours..
Yes it's barely moving !! i was thinking the same thing.