Not the Grail, just a regular one - Bablokos!!! - page 288
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
one small problem
A break in a pre-existing channel does not guarantee a continuation in the same direction
no guarantee at all
stop levels have been invented for this purpose, and if it didn't go to the continuation, you can exit the position. it's just one thing when it's one currency pair, and another thing when it's a synthetic portfolio, the probability is higher than for one pair. and so let's say a small correction, the degree of confidence in the continuation is determined by the rate of trend to the flat channel.
experiments on history do not show any consistent trend
You just try making owls or a script to test your theory and see if it doesn't hold up
There is something else that is not yet accessible to the eye/collective mind
Your synthetic can literally catch your level of discovery and then go "wrong"
In made-up pictures and mythical theory, everything is great
As soon as you start to open orders, you face the same questions: Where will the price go?
and if you don't know the answer to this question for a mono pair, what makes you think you can be more successful in answering it for a combination of pairs, which is much more difficult a priori?
experiments on history do not show any consistent trend
You just try making owls or a script to test your theory and see if it doesn't hold up
There is something else that is not yet accessible to the eye/collective mind
Your synthetic can literally catch your level of discovery and then go "wrong"
In made-up pictures and mythical theory, everything is great
As soon as you start to open orders, you run into the same questions: Where will the price go?
And if you don't know the answer to this question for a mono-pair, why do you think you can be more successful in answering it for a combination of pairs, which is much more complicated a priori?
and no one is saying that the monopair is not an option with the same successes, but here's the trouble, let's go one by one, when you see a particular trend on the monopair and then suddenly begins a correction, whether it is a flag or a pennant according to technical analysis, you have the confidence that this is the signal!!! Now when the signal triggers a breakout model you open a trade with stops. Only on the monopair such signals are rare, and on synthetics you can churn out dozens of them a day!!! And it is the number of possible signals that allows you to conclude that this is a grail.
You can stamp synthetics on every bar, that's true.
but on exactly every bar you run the risk of "getting in the wrong place".
Let's forget about trends and other corrections - it's all wonderfully explained in the past, but it doesn't work for understanding the future, any trend at any time may be reversed
so we can only talk about statistically significant results
how are you going to do TS without statistics?
and it is not given
You can stamp synthetics on every bar, that's true.
but on exactly every bar you run the risk of "getting in the wrong place".
let's forget about trends and other corrections - it's all wonderfully explained in the past, but does not work for understanding the future, any trend at any time may be reversed
so we can only talk about statistically significant results
how are you going to do TS without statistics?
and it is not given
ask joker, transendrimer or you may observe the statistics yourself )
just don't expect a trend to last forever, take a small part and throw it away, make a new one and take a small part again....
i have a good feeling about this one, it's a good look at the statistics too.)
you should not expect a trend to last forever, take a small part and throw it away, make a new one and take a small part again....
the problem is something else
the existing principles cannot be used to build a TS which may be tested on the history
for there is a failure
take any TS (breakout, return, grayish-brownish) and it will not pass the history check
at some point in time any of these TS stops working
but how to catch this moment in the future is unclear
which is why I say that synthetic is harder to predict than mono-pair
and not every mono-pair can be used to make a time stable TS, for example in 10-15 years
and even if you make such a TS, you can not be sure that tomorrow it will not start to fail
to set up synthetics of the right kind - no problem, as many as you want.
but no one knows how they will behave right behind the AOS
to set up the right kind of synthetics - no problem, as many as you want.
but no one knows how they will behave right behind the AOS
There are some patterns in Joker trades.
-Profit is not achieved by a single trade on a particular synthetic, but opens on different synthetics (sometimes these synthetics are very different from each other by currency composition, and sometimes they are very similar - one pair of four is changed and ratios on the other three are adjusted).
-Lots increase with the opening of transactions and are not closed until the fixing of profits, but there is an adjustment of lots on some pairs in the direction of decreasing.
-In most cases all 7 majors are used by the time summary profit is closed.
Hence, we may conclude that Joker does not trade each synthetic separately, but collects "a synthetic of synthetics" :), and constantly corrects it by correcting lots and adding or deleting new pairs. So it appears that the probability of guessing the direction of one synthetic is small (and one can see the drawdown in the tester report ), but if one trades many curves selected by some criteria, the probability of getting the total profit will be higher than for one of them.
Here is the graph of lot build-up for seven major pairs for one series of trades to illustrate: