a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 24
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Ja dumaju 4to dlia ras4iota voln ninado tak zaglubitsia v matematiku... :)
Vot primer mojevo indikatora, katoryj probujet markirovat' volny (po EWA + Wolfe waves):
Na troike i piatiorke - ordera, vot i vsio :)
P.S> algoritm uze opisal ranshe, vsio delajetsia pod Max/Min cene v periode i napravleniji (mini-trend) :
"trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory".
Your strategy must also be profitable since you haven't given it up in the past 2 years. And if you just show the code for MT4, and not the old one for MT3, I think that many traders would use it with great pleasure and would be very grateful to you!
But for me, according to Vladislava's initial calculations of strategy it seems that Elliot's wave theory is just a special case of strategy of applying methods of matstatistics. That is, all these reversal zones, which is predicted very approximately Elliot wave theory is rather accurately predicted on the basis of intersection of confidence intervals by strategy Vladislava. And I would say that the strategy Vladislava shows even those reversal zones that can not be described by the Elliot wave theory, even using your ready-made indicator! This is one of the advantages of this strategy.
The second very significant advantage of the matstatistics methods is the fact that there is no need to have a strategy tester in MT4 for the following reasons. First: those parameters of the system that can be optimized in the strategy tester still have some variance due to which the system optimized even on the minute history within 1.5 years will still lose when playing on a real account, in other words on the data sample, for which it was not optimized (I take my experience in using the system described in this very branch). And the second reason is the duration of the statistical calculations of the strategy. That is, if you have a strategy for getting conditionally one cycle of calculations takes a few minutes, then any testing on historical data for 1-2 years is out of the question! You won't get any results. At the same time, this calculation made by the script in a few minutes gives you a result comparable to multi-day optimization of the system parameters in the strategy tester. That is, the final result of the matstatistics script is not specific buy/sell levels, but the probability of continuation of movement in one direction or another. That is, if at any time you can know the probability of movement in one direction or another, then in accordance with it you can make trade decisions, instead of saying that the fifth wave must reach this or that. It can either not reach or pass a calculated level according to Elliott. According to matstatistics strategy knowing that for example at the current moment the probability of the movement continuation is 5 per cent, and 95 per cent says about the reversal, then if you stand in correspondence with a higher probability and having set the stop loss at the rate of 30-50 bp, you will receive the stop loss only in 1 trade from 20 trades according to the strategy! The remaining 19 trades according to calculations will be successful! And you do not need to have several years of history to test this strategy. Even the data that is present on the broker's server at the current moment in time is quite enough. About the limitations of the history on the broker's server we have already written here in detail. You may read it.
Thus matstatic methods solve a lot of technical problems at once, such as the absence of quotes for small timeframes for a very long period of time, as well as the problem of relevance of tcmter strategies in MT4. That is, the strategy tester doesn't need any further modifications and accordingly the genetic algorithms will not give much new functionality. I already designed my system described in this thread using the same genetic algorithms, but I implemented them manually. And I'm absolutely sure that I squeezed an absolute, not local maximum of parameters from the system, which did not give me anything at all. The system that showed 18% of profit per month in the Strategy Tester during 1.5 years, with 3600 trades, has been successfully losing about 10% per month for about 3 months now.
Raz uze stali govorit' o matstatistikie a nie o EWA... sdelaite novuju vetku dlia etovo :)
Nas4iot EWA, moja sistema polzujetsia only minimal'mon opoznovaniji 1-2-3 i 1-2-3-4-5 voln, i nikakokj re4i o opoznovaniji figura, tak kak vsio eto vsio ravno sostojit iz 1-2-3 i 1-2-3-4-5 voln... Staryj MT3 kod ja vylozylyli ni dlia polzovaniji, a dlia podmogi razrabo4ikov katoryje soglasovat' kod kod GNU Open Source licenziji, ina4e re4i o razrabotke takoj sistemy i byt' nimozet, takkol'ko sam za 2 let vizu 4to sistema pod EWA popadajet do 85% orders v xoroshuju storonu na na4ale volny 3 i 5 i rabotajet na vsie instrumenty i na all periodi vremeni. V reale mnie tak i polu4ilos' - za paru mesiacov pribyl' v reale s 0.1 lotom ot depa $233 do $850 :-D
Tieper' o analitikov EWA - vybroste vsie mnenija katoryje govorat' 4to budet ili "UP" è "DOWN", ie 2 scenarija. Scenariji dolzen byt' tol'koin! I jesli on nipravil'ny, zna4et gde oshbybka v sisteme.
Samovo menia tak tak4ilos', 4to dolgoje vremya ploko opredelialos' kokda rabotat' sovmestno s trend , and kokda protiv nevo, poka et problema su4estvujet, o milijonax baksov karmane re4i i byt' nimozet ... :)
P.S> 9 out of 10 liudej skazet 4to strategija po EWA nirabotajet, 1/10 on nej zarabatyvajut, a sdies' jiest' shans sobrat' tex 1/10 i sdelat' avtomat dlia markirovki voln ... Vsiakije platnyje sistemy katoryje probyut eto doat' i vo mnogogiji slu4aji nipravil'no, pribyli nidajut takoj kakoj nado i poka taket prodalzatsia kokda kazdy budet priatat svoji ideji, obs4ej sistemy po EWA nebudet.
You propose to make a project to create an EWA strategy for the GNU Open Source license for the general public. But for some reason you are not willing to share your developments in terms of presentation of your working code for MT4. A legitimate question arises, why this code, which will be finalized from the old MT3 code, will be shared with other people who will undertake the work in this direction, if you don't want to share your latest developments?
Do you just want to watch the very process of someone trying to reach the level in EWA that you have already reached? It is obvious that you have already figured out EWA completely. Although if it is your most recent code, most likely, a lot of people WILL test it and certainly there will be a lot of suggestions how to improve it, just as you want! And competent people, who can offer something real to improve your idea, there is a sufficient quantity on this forum.
PS: It seems to me that Forex is not a place where something really WORKABLE can exist in the form of the GNU Open Source license.
The GNU Open Source license is available in the areas of computer fanaticism or if you like, in the area of "holy wars" a la Linuxoids versus Bill Gates :o). This is probably the end of the field of off-the-shelf solutions in the field of creating software products ready for use. Everything else under the GNU Open Source License often still requires great intellectual ability to apply something made under that license in real life (a la click a button, like Bill Gates and get a result - not many GNU Open source licensed products reach that point yet). And all the more so, such a thing can hardly exist in the field directly concerned with money.
P.S> GNU Open Source licence primeniajetsia i dlia takix tem gde voobs4e one kompanija imejet monopoliju :) Say, xot' i Microsoft/Cisco v desktope/seti, v tom tom i v finansovyx projektax. Tak jest o 4iom podumat' pered na4alom, i te kto soglasovat' delat' po GNU, budet' imet' potencial gorazdo bolshe 4em te kto rabotajut v zakrytyx projekt.
Okay, now you've convinced me! As soon as I figure out strategy of applying methods of matstatistics, and if I fail to achieve desired results with it (which is unlikely in my opinion), maybe I'll try to work out your code too at my leisure. Although, right now I'm not sure if EWA can do more than accurate matstatistics methods. I have written enough strategies based on different indicators but the result is still the same - "still searching" :o).
Good luck and good trends.
However, I do not quite understand this idea. The fact that the calculation should be performed on H1 and M30 - it is an understandable compromise between the amount of calculations and the required accuracy of analysis. But I do not quite understand bringing it to a daily timeframe. If you mean the Murray indicator, it now shows at its default settings that the EURUSD price has broken through all imaginable limits upwards. If you increase the P parameter from 64 to 128, the price is now at the highest overheated levels, which generally indicates that the price should move down strongly. But since this is indicative of a very long term forecast, are you really going to hold positions for weeks at a time if the strategy is talking about lucky entries and exits during the day? Or maybe you just don't do intraday trading at all? Or maybe I don't understand anything about bringing everything to a daily timeframe? Please, explain.
Good luck and good trends.
SZZ About level identification - what algorithm are you using? All my levels have long been re-established and 1.2939 is defined as 6/ 8. I posted the working version (MMLevls_VG) on MQL4: Mechanical Trading Systems.
One more thing: I already wrote above the thread that this method works well for medium-term trends. For intraday trading there may be problems.
PS: By "1.2939 is defined as 6/8" you probably mean 5/8? So according to the current readings of your Murray indicator we have the following data. If the price breaks through the level of 1.2695, it may go to the next one 1.2451, or if it does not break through it, it may go to 1.2936. But I think that according to my calculations, the downside movement is less probable, because the linear regression channel, which was plotted over the past week, has the Hurst coefficient 0.37. In other words, a reversal upwards is possible, unless there is some strong economic data that will strengthen the dollar in the coming week?