a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 25
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Good luck and happy trends.
PS
I hope you are satisfied with your analysis of the situation today ? ;).
Good luck and good luck with the trends.
Kstate, Murrey math ja proboval toze, sama 4ast indikatora jest' i v majom starom kode... :) No vsio taki, skol'ko ja smotrel, Fibonacci 61.8% i 31.2% ostajotsia zolotymi, na ix jesli kon4ajetsia Elliot Wave 4 i na4inajetsia Elliot Wave 5 (ili Wave 3 jesli cena perevara4vajetsia nad >=61.% Elliot Wave 1)... uverenno cena byvajet do na4ala Elliot Wave 4 i daze inogda v polnostju otrabatyvajut scenarij 1-2-3-4-5.
Ob Murrey math pri etom slozno govorit', tak kak ceny mezdu "support/resist" linijami v principe otrabatyvajut ni vsegda.
Murray levels in this strategy are an auxiliary tool to refine (and sometimes confirm) a forecast based on matstatistics methods. This has already been written about in this thread. No one is going to trade using just Murray levels, because they are not profitable by themselves, just like Fibonacci levels. Profit is only given by the right combination of any levels with something else. In your system, this something is EWA, and in Vladislava's strategy, channels built on the basis of first- and second-order approximating functions.
: o) According to my visual estimation, the forecast should have contained the description of the quadratic function's borders, drawn from 23.01.2006 till now (the price chart during that period was similar to a parabola, relatively speaking), and the price was probably near the lower border of this channel. But I have not come to the quadratic functions yet. I am still finalizing the existing code for the linear regression channels in terms of getting the maximum speed of calculations by reworking the algorithm. I want to have as many bars as possible at smaller timeframes and acceptable real account time.
I wish I had entered the market according to my forecast. The truth is that I placed the order according to my forecast at 1.2695. And the price really was 1.2695 but it was the Bid price instead of the Ask!:o) In other words, according to my forecast I was mistaken only by 2 pips when guessing the reversal price point. Of course it is hard to believe that such an accurate prediction is possible! Well, I think this is not the last train and we'll get ours too :o) By the way, thanks to this strategy now I can know exactly when not to enter the market, if I have not had time to enter earlier. And this is a great achievement! And with the order opening we will sooner or later get used to it ;o).
Vladislav, thank you very much for your help in understanding the Forex market!
This is one of the main things - not to jump into the unfolding late and thus save the deposit.
Well, with the order opening itself I think we will get used to it sooner or later ;o).
Of course, the rest is a matter of technique. And note that in MT4 on the chart there are bid prices, and not average prices as in MT3. That is, for the long positions the spread accounting is mandatory. And you can increase the reliability by introducing any criteria (even from the standard TA) that will confirm that the reversal point of the market has passed. Here is an example of yesterday's Expert Advisor http://ampir.net/. It opens from the market. It was almost the same on the real account.)
Vladislav, thank you very much for your help in understanding the Forex market!
You are welcome. I mean you are always welcome.
I hope you appreciate how much more useful this approach has been in understanding the methodology than simply copying the algorithm. ;).
Good luck and good trends.
I've been watching your Expert Advisor for a couple of weeks now as soon as you provided links to the posts on White Collar. Mostly I follow EURUSD. But I`ve started to watch USDCHF too, because I see that you`re actively trading on this pair too. I guess it's also quite "technical". Or maybe it is because the EUR and CHF are closer in spirit than EUR and GBP?
Compared to my estimations, you probably use more information to enter the market than I do using only the linear regression channels and the Murray levels. Perhaps the quadratic functions help much, but I haven't mastered their programming? Or some other additional sources of information?
By the way, yesterday when I saw that your Expert Advisor entered the market at 1.2773 (543636 2006.05.19 21:00 buy 7.20 eurusd 1.2773) at first I thought it was late or early, because the best price was before and after (I placed my buylimit order at 1.2695, the price was 2 pips before). But as it turned out, the potential of the price field has done its work ;o), although initially the order did not seem to be very profitable. Perhaps, you have done something different on the real account? Perhaps, you did not have this order on the real?
I had to search through a lot of books. Although, it turned out that everything I need is sufficiently available in Bulashev's book, which you recommended. True, when you put a ready-made algorithm, it would have saved me some time, but with the same result. But I think you have spent it MUCH more time in my time than I did torturing you with endless questions, and not always even reasonable. But as the saying goes, it was still a pleasure to remind myself as a student and to rack my brains, because my real job is not giving me the opportunity to fulfil myself to the extent that I'm capable of and have studied for. Maybe a stable earnings on forex, which I haven't had yet in a year of this business will allow me to choose the job I dream about instead of working for the money itself, which mostly only dulls me down more than it really brings me the amount of money I need.
PS: After your strategy everything else I've tried before seems like a "catching the lost train" game, which was a sure loser even with the latest version of strategy tester in MT4, which now will have genetic algorithms!) What is the point of all these history tests using linear algorithms, if the future samples will be completely different? And the number of history trades tested is completely irrelevant. I had 3600 absolutely optimized deals in 1.5 years of testing that did not help me in real trading. The only thing that is useful in Forex is probability estimation based on statistics. That is the tool that is widely used all over the world for estimating all random processes, but for some reason only not on Forks!) And it seems to me that the main reason for this is solely the lack of education of the average forex trader. That is, in theory, the overall picture of the Forex market is as follows. There is a general mass of traders, who win/loss money on Forex, with varying success, based on all conceivable and inconceivable methods of trading, except for statistics. There is a very small percentage of traders, who have come to a simple understanding of the Forex market, for example in the concept you outline or have some similar working methods, which can not be distributed to a wide range of traders because of its complexity in terms of understanding. And if a person does not understand the essence (due to his lack of education), he will not apply it! They will simply read something more understandable at their level of development and use it to win or lose money, creating a mass of traders, who just move the price with their money to the necessary direction for a small circle of traders who know exactly where the price should go. And probably this situation will continue for a long time, because this state is a reflection of the real world, which is what it is and there won't be another one. That is, as they say, everyone studies at the same schools and universities and initially the conditions are the same, but in the end, as everything is developing and I think that this cannot be changed even if you put your complete algorithm on your site and send links to it to all traders in the world! :o))))))) The interest to it will be shown exactly as much as it was shown to this branch of the forum, which, in principle, has long turned into a chat room between two people;o), which is very untypical for a forum.
Vladislav, I think that your EA enters the market under 2 conditions. The first one is that the market has gone behind one of the reversal Murray levels when the indicator is set for example to H1 period in intraday trading. The second one is when the price broke the permissible (99.9%) border of the shortest (shallow) channel in the opposite direction relative to this reversal Murray level. Apparently this is what can explain some of the seeming non-optimality of order opening prices. Well, apparently, you have a good reason for that, as I see it. Thus, due to these two conditions, the Expert Advisor gets on board the train it needs and not the train that just could go where the EA needs to go :o). Classic TA trick.
Good luck and good luck with the trends.
Vladislav, the analysis made by solandr at that time was correct, but qualitative.
You wrote in your time in this thread that the main advantage of your methodology is the possibility to quantify the probabilities of breakdown/reflection. Could you please explain the basis for such an assessment.
If I understand correctly, http://ampir.net/ is your Expert Advisor in which this strategy is implemented. If it is, there is one more question. The lot size used by the Expert Advisor changes considerably from trade to trade. Does it depend on the breakout/rebound probability ratio or something else? Or from a whole range of reasons ?
You wrote in your time in this thread that the main advantage of your methodology is the possibility to quantify breakdown/reflection probabilities. Could you please explain the basis for such an assessment.
Trust intervals.
If I understand correctly, http://ampir.net/ is your Expert Advisor in which this strategy is implemented. If it is, there is one more question. The lot size used by the Expert Advisor changes considerably from trade to trade. Does it depend on the ratio of breakout/rebound probabilities or on something else? Or from a whole range of reasons ?
From a given range of market participation + probability of a move in the respective direction. Profits are reinvested. Positions are increased either with increasing profit or with increasing probability of movement in the direction of the open order. Stopping is implemented as follows - the stop can move in both directions (but not further than the furthest boundaries of the calculated reversal zones) until there is no profit on the open position. From this point, only the increase of the fixed profit is possible. Yesterday I ran into something - office light was out while I had to run some business, so the positions were not taken care of.) Potentially profitable position was closed by loss, which has not been moved. Alas, on the real as well. Perhaps I need to think more about how to protect myself from man-made risks :).
Good luck and good luck with the trends.