Best exit strategy advice needed. Lots of em.

 

I have been in trading field since few years. Its not my only source of income but rather an interest field. I have demo traded a few years ago for a considerable amount of time but never faced a problem I am about to share.

My trading has been all manual.

For past continuous 4 months my account performance has been like i made around 400% in a month and then lost it all in one trade.

Its soo depressing. At start i trade 0.1 lots and as my equity increases i move up to trading 0.2-0.3-0.4 and higher lots and finally loose all my equity on one trade. I know its all psychological prob as if i have lost my patience but your advice will surely help.

I don't think more details is needed but if any feel free to ask.

i have never changed my strategy in the mean time. Strategy work fine but the exit strategy has been messing with me. I move the stop losses lower and lower and am caught up in a loop.

Be blunt on me and give your best of advises.

 
 
saurabh suman:

I have been in trading field since few years. Its not my only source of income but rather an interest field. I have demo traded a few years ago for a considerable amount of time but never faced a problem I am about to share.

My trading has been all manual.

For past continuous 4 months my account performance has been like i made around 400% in a month and then lost it all in one trade.

Its soo depressing. At start i trade 0.1 lots and as my equity increases i move up to trading 0.2-0.3-0.4 and higher lots and finally loose all my equity on one trade. I know its all psychological prob as if i have lost my patience but your advice will surely help.

I don't think more details is needed but if any feel free to ask.

i have never changed my strategy in the mean time. Strategy work fine but the exit strategy has been messing with me. I move the stop losses lower and lower and am caught up in a loop.

Be blunt on me and give your best of advises.

Same here. Welcome to the 96% loser group. If you're of a learner state of mind, this link nails the problem: "Reasons why forex traders lose money."

 
saurabh suman:

I have been in trading field since few years. Its not my only source of income but rather an interest field. I have demo traded a few years ago for a considerable amount of time but never faced a problem I am about to share.

My trading has been all manual.

For past continuous 4 months my account performance has been like i made around 400% in a month and then lost it all in one trade.

Its soo depressing. At start i trade 0.1 lots and as my equity increases i move up to trading 0.2-0.3-0.4 and higher lots and finally loose all my equity on one trade. I know its all psychological prob as if i have lost my patience but your advice will surely help.

I don't think more details is needed but if any feel free to ask.

i have never changed my strategy in the mean time. Strategy work fine but the exit strategy has been messing with me. I move the stop losses lower and lower and am caught up in a loop.

Be blunt on me and give your best of advises.


I think a good thing and I don't know if you've been using it is a stoploss; this is the ultimate exit strategy.

 
saurabh suman: i move up to trading 0.2-0.3-0.4 and higher lots

You aren't controlling your risk. Control your risk.  Don't risk more than 0.5%-2% per trade, 6% all (uncorrelated) trades.

Risk depends on your initial stop loss, lot size, and the value of the pair.
  1. In code (MT4):
    1. You place the stop where it needs to be - where the reason for the trade is no longer valid. E.g. trading a support bounce the stop goes below the support.
    2. Account Balance * percent/100 = RISK = OrderLots * (|OrderOpenPrice - OrderStopLoss| * DeltaPerLot + CommissionPerLot) (Note OOP-OSL includes the SPREAD, and DeltaPerLot is usually around $10/pip but it takes account of the exchange rates of the pair vs. your account currency.)
    3. Do NOT use TickValue by itself - DeltaPerLot and verify that MODE_TICKVALUE is returning a value in your deposit currency, as promised by the documentation, or whether it is returning a value in the instrument's base currency.
                MODE_TICKVALUE is not reliable on non-fx instruments with many brokers.
    4. You must normalize lots properly and check against min and max.
    5. You must also check FreeMargin to avoid stop out
    Most pairs are worth about $10 per PIP. A $5 risk with a (very small) 5 PIP SL is $5/$10/5=0.1 Lots maximum.

  2. Use a GUI EA like mine (for MT4): Indicators: 'Money Manager Graphic Tool' indicator by 'takycard' Forum - Page 6
 

A while ago I have been doing backtests on a zero-spread monkey trade strategy, that is random market entry (Dax, 2014-2018) and exit on predefined TP. It turned out that too short SL and too short TP will always lead to a negative result. I don't know about scalping/pipsing Forex, though.

I also tested a triple flag exit strategy which I came up with to control my losses. Flag1 -5, Flag2 -10, Flag3 -20, and if FlagX is risen & the price whipsaws back to FlagX-1, bail out. That also produced losses on long term, allthough it kept the losses near zero in difficult markets. And yeah, losses near zero still don't get you a profit, right?

Also, when you get stopped out, you'll mostly have to cope with an additional negative slippage. You sometimes get close prices much worse than you set as SL, be prepared for that.

My conclusion is, do not open a trade if you cannot sustain the loss when stopped out.

Reason: