A-B-C-D Trade - page 80
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Here is a pic of the breakout of Asian Low during the European session on the 15-min chart.
This is a good example of not being able to ascertain the proper swings to plot the ABC. The pullback during the 10:30 candle was not conforming to a fib ratio.
When this happens, we can use the fib retracement tool and plot from Asian Low to High. If you added new levels, per previous instructions, you can pull from High to Low, and still get the 138.2 and 161.8 extension fibs.
The 15:00 candle hit the 161.8, aided by positive U.S. data, University of Michigan Confidence.
The bounce off of 161.8 reached the 61.8. We can see price congestion during the 2 visits near the Asian Low. This is due to traders jumping on and off the train.
Our featured indicator AutoFibAutoTrend, on the 4-hour chart, had a upper trend line that held up nicely for the 4th time in this down channel. Now, we can also switch it to the 15-min view.
As week opened, we saw Euro weakness against both the USD and Yen. Both crosses had bumped up against a trend line produce by indicator mv-i-Chuvashov_1_3 on 15-min chart.
This resistance is the 61.8 fib for both.
EUR/JPY decouples and testing above that price of 110.84 now, hitting the 78.6 price 110.89.
EUR/USD support at 1.3167, the 90-degree Gann_SQ9 level.
EUR/USD approaching previous support 1.3182, bounce traders waiting.
Below that is support 1.3167 per previous post.
EUR/USD revisited Friday's Asian session low of 1.3220, which is also key 45-degree level on 4-hour Gann_SQ9.
Retraced 50% thus far to 1.3197 and testing aggressively.
Slow data day, but a bit of little negative banking statistic on less lending to Europe.
Should read testing 61.8
Our GannBox_144 plot for EUR/USD daily chart, from historic high on July 15th, 2010:
Use red 45% fan line as support on several occasion including a Swing B on Nov 30th, of an ABC formation. The pullback was 50% with Dec 5th Doji candle.
Attached chart utilizes Heiken Ashi Smoothed (HAS) candles in an attempt to get a better diagnosis of trend.
Break of key Swing B price of 1.2994 may result in 138.2 extension to 1.2692, which is area of dips from late August and early September.
EUR/USD, in spectacular ascent during European and first-half U.S. session, now testing Dec 7th high of round number 1.3400. Bounce traders with automatic orders here.
The 4-hour 180-degree, per Gann_SQ9, is 1.3393.
We're looking at 23.6 fib 1.3365 as TP, based on fib retracement plot from low of 1.3261.
TIghter pull using low pivot of 1.3318 produces 38.2 of 1.3363.
The 4-hour 157.5-degree = 1.3365.
This is basically a cluster for us.
1.3396 is the 200% fib from:
Low = 1.3182 Asian Low
High = 12:00 1.3289
The 161.8 = 1.3355, major support
As London turns 17:00, we recognize bounce off the 23.6 fib based on retrace fib plot using tighter low of 1.3307
Could be attributed to exiting of London traders. Momentum for larger retrace of master move is reduced now.
In any event, the lesson is that on large moves, the minor fib of 23.6 increases in probability. The selection of the low is the also key. When looking at the 15-min chart, we can see the pivot at that price of 1.3307, which followed a red (Gravestone) candle.
This is not to say the 1.3365 fib, based on using low of 1.3261, won't be met. Volume is reduced with European activity done.