A-B-C-D Trade - page 155
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
As we near end of Asian session, EUR/USD attempting to break support of 1.40248.
Support is FE 100 (black) from former ABC, as well as diagonal fib channel (red).
Now we plot fib extension with fib retracement tool.
High = May 24th 15:00 1.41320 and Low = May 25th 01:30 1.40325
161.8 = 1.39710 This is basically previous significant low of May 23rd.
We need to check full economic calendar to see what data might be released ahead of this. We see a big one in GBP GDP at 08:30. It is now 06:10, therefore any intra-day trade must exit ahead of 08:30.
The fib plot will have other exit levels in event we run out of time. The 138.2 = 1.39945.
What we just saw was a bounce off of the previous day's low of 1.40124 area. It got down as far as 1.40145, and bounced up to 1.40494.
There are institutional traders that have robots/EAs trading these bounces.
After bounce off previous day's low (1.4012), EUR/USD rangebound through European. Retrace to 88.6% fib of 1.41183 from previous significant high May 24th 1.41320.
Gold moved higher. The attached chart is XAU_USD 1-hour with PSQ9 loaded using Mars at 90-degree intervals and Moon at 45-degree intervals. We increased the intervals with the Moon to gain more lines for this instrument. Mar lines are the near-flat lines, and Moon lines have a slope.
The ABC swings used was from last week: May 17th 15:00/May 18th 15:00/May 19th 15:00. Swing B is at the Mars 225-degree but is not shown since we are using intervals of 90-degrees on Mars.
FE 100 = 1514.74 (hit end week)
FE 127 = 1522.50 (hit May 24th 09:00)
FE 161.8 = 1532.37 (just hit May 25th 15:00) Mars 0-degree also there.
This peak is also the 138.2 extension of the end-of-week up move.
This week started with price being rejected at the Mars 270-degree as resistance. The Moon 0-degree also started there. Price bounced down to the next lower level Moon 315-degree. That bottom was also the FE 61.8.
Price re-approached Mars 270 but was unable to break through until May 24th 07:00. After that, the Moon 0-degree took over acting as resistance on a diagonal basis.
We added the Andrew's Pitchfork (green color) plotted with the same parameters as the ABC swings, with Point A as the handle. The result was that the APF's middle fork caught the hit to the FE 100 and shortly thereafter, the hit to the Mars 270.
The further application of the fib channel tool, using the APF as guidance, allows use to plot fib channel extensions (blue). We can see that price action stayed inside the 61.8 and 100 channel.
Here's a 15-min chart.
Low = May 25th 15:00 1.40263 High = May 25th 15:30 1.41166
138.2 = 1.41519 (hit May 26th 01:00)
161.8 = 1.41734 (hit May 26th 01:45)
Nothing else on chart. Extension happened during the Asian session. Break of Point B at May 26th 00:30 candle.
We try to post charts that can assist viewers in recognizing plot techniques. Here's one that looks complicated using several tools. Just take it one step at a time. EUR/USD 1-Hour chart.
1) Andrew's Pitchfork with add-on indicator AML activated.
Handle = May 11th 09:00 high 1.44222
Upper corner = May 24th 15:00 high 1.41320
Lower corner = May 23rd 09:00 low 1.39682
The AML's 1st outer line (red dotted) is in area of top.
2) ABC (fib expansion tool)
A = May 23rd 09:00 low 1.39682
B = May 24th 15:00 high 1.41320
C = May 25th 07:00 low 1.40122
FE 100 = 1.41760 (hit May 25th 01:00)
3) Regular extension (fib retracement tool)
Low = May 23rd 09:00 1.39682
High = May 23rd 18:00 1.40682
161.8 = 1.41300 (same as Point B)
200 = 1.41682 (same as FE 100)
4) Fibo Fan
High = May 20th 08:00 1.43443
Low = May 23rd 23:00 1.40003
78.6 = FE 100 area (top)
5) QTA
High-to-High = May 20th 08:00 1.43443 & May 24th 15:00 high 1.41320
Low-to-Low = May 23rd 09:00 low 1.39682 (A) & May 25th 07:00 low 1.40122 (C)
The plots uses the 4 major swings. This produced a fib cluster that caught the breakout to the upside at 00:00.
To turn on bar to drag for plot, go to edit function of QTA. In "ExtObjectColor" select your color.
1-Hour chart with ABC, divergence and QTA. The FE 100 is .86932 and acting as support since 04:00 There is BAJA bullish divergence here.
The QTA uses High-to-High = Swings A & C
Low-to-Low = May 19th 04:00 and May 24th 15:00
This plot not as easy as last one for EUR/USD, as quite choppy. The highs are O.K., but lows have many options. The FE 100 is the mitigating factor.
Sorry, forgot to post QTA turning point time. It is for 08:00, and coming in about 30-minutes. The green diagonal line is the Moon 0-degree and can act as support too.
Follow-up on last post on USD/CHF, with 2 attached charts.
1st chart is 15-min. We were leaning towards a move to the upside, even though the market was said to have a down tone. As it turned out, pair failed to breakout above 61.8 retrace fib plotted from Asian high-low.
The same plot was kept to ascertain extension levels to downside. Asian Low was broken at 12:30, and driven by negative U.S. GDP release. Obviously, we have recommended that this is a not-trade period. From purely analysis side, the extension went to the 200% and bounced up 61.8%.
2nd chart is a 1-hour which has the previous APF, PSQ9, QTA, and divergence. We marked the 08:00 time with yellow labels. We had said that the FE 100 was support. This was broken, along with the Moon 0-degree upon U.S. GDP release.
The down-move stopped at the Mars 270-degree which was also lower fork of APF. The bounce up was contained by the Moon 0-degree.
The QTA can project clusters, but we still need to have other confirmation for trade/entry. As it turned out, there was no time left due to data. More experienced traders can trade the bounce up off of the APF/Mars 270/200%, for about 20-30 pips.
Spike in EUR/USD to upside should be contained by GannBox (daily) 1/3rd line (yellow) about 1.4255 per previous post. Can also plot trend line on previous 2 peaks on May 11th and May 20th.
Other resistance include FE 161.8 1.42772 and fibo fan 78.6 intersecting same.
Meanwhile IMF made statement that they may withhold some funds to Greece. That has sent EURO lower, except against USD.
Earlier at 12:30, USD GDP data came in below expectation, weakening USD.
When there is fear or trouble, we always check the CHF pairs. Attached is 1-hour EUR/CHF, with Andrew's Pitchfork, PSQ9, and divergence.
APF:
Handle = May 13th 12:00 high 1.26924
Upper corner = May 24th 04:00 high 1.24675
Lower corner = May 23rd 09:00 low 1.23227
ABC:
A = May 24th 04:00 high 1.24675
B = May 25th 15:00 low 1.22695
C = May 26th 07:00 high 1.23586
The APF plot confirmed when Swing C of ABC hit upper fork. Moon 0-degree just above. That pivot also registered a BAJA bearish divergence.
We saw down move bounce off of the FE 78.6 which was the same area as the Mars 180-degree (thick red horizontal line).
The FE 100 of 1.21606 hit May 17th 02:00 (just recently), and same as Moon 180-degree intersection.
For our RSI(4), we have OB/OS levels of 85/15. The dips were at or below the 15 level.
Edit added: We repeat our comments that the RSI set on 4 gives us a fast indicator line that more closely mimics price/candle action. It specifically allows us to see the sudden extensions and divergence in those instances. The extension/divergence at Swing C is a good example.