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EUR/USD broke trend line. Attached is 30-min with MML and wide retrace fibs (yellow).
Here's AUD/USD trend line break and retrace fibs on 15-min.
Cross-pair correlation sees EUR/JPY hit its 138.2 of 113.88. That made EUR/USD temporarily halt its won decent. As we type this both now resume.
EUR/USD bounced off the 23.6 of 1.3748 exactly, thus confirming plot.
EUR/USD tight plot using 1.3732 as low also being respected. The aforementioned 1.3743 lies ahead as near-term support. It happens to also be the tight 78.6.
After German GDP, which came in as projected, market apparently did not like overall/other data and bid down EURO.
This dragged AUD/USD to its 61.8 (plot from Feb 23rd low), and nearing parity.
EUR/USD supported by fibo fan's 50% pointing up. Plot from Feb 22nd low to Feb 23rd high. Aforementioned fibo fan pointing down also supporting with its 61.8.
European set to open in 8 minutes.
EUR/USD bounce off near round number 1.3700: 1.3717 = 23.6% and 1.3726 = 38.2%.
Out at 17.
The bottom was also the high for extension plot to top. See updated 4-hour.
The last sequence of events is a good example. The breakout of trend line (down) was interrupted by German GDP, and thus capped profits.
Jumping back in can be risky. Wait in the tall grass. In this case, automatic order just above 1.3702 (BUY), which was pivot high for up move Feb 22nd 12:00 (4-hour chart).
Plotting retrace for exit levels involved looking at 15-min chart to see swings. Easy to see the 06:30 bull candle, which was used for pivot high for retrace plot.
The other aspect was the entering of the European session at 08:00 period. So, a quick shave of about 10 pips for most, without much trouble. S/L max 10 pips.
The last call turned out to be a reversal point at the 50% retrace fib. Looking at the posted black chart with Murrey Math Lines (MML), we can see the thrust up met 8/8th MML at 1.3794.
Reasons to not short at revisit of 1.3784 or MML 1.3794 was that it was not the 1st revisit to 84, which is highest probability. The other was the 10:00 EU data. Pair was pushed back down before U.S. data at 13:30 and 15:00.
The fibo fan's high moved to 10:00 1.3806, provided support with its 38.2 fan line and caught dip. The original wide fib plot had its 23.6 at dip too (yellow).
The 15:00 30-min candle is a BAJA divergence peak, but with U.S. data, becomes a riskier signal. However, things can subside late U.S. session.
EUR/USD similar swings points (time) to Gold. Attached chart illustrates ascent by EUR/USD and Gold, and decent by USD/CHF and EUR/CHF. Notice that all trending instruments have reached original levels (red horizontal line) of opposite instruments.
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Since Oil is priced in USD, a spike in oil is bad for the U.S. economy. Conversely, the gains in the EURO allows EU countries to have an advantage in this respect. However, rising oil is bad for everybody and limits economic growth.
The ECB bought more EURO Bonds (to fund bailouts) last week. The natural reaction is a weakness to the Euro. Since then, 2 ECB persons have been "talking up" the Euro. This is similar to the FED's Q2 purchase of U.S. bonds.
The resignation of Germany's Weber, the heir apparent to outgoing ECB Chief Trichet, was also negative. He made comments this week that points to his disagreement with how the ECB is handling the sovereign debt problem.