A-B-C-D Trade - page 126

[fxisland]

Here is a link to an interesting read that interviewed an infamous Bear, Mr. Albert Edwards, from French bank Société Générale.

Albert Edwards, SocGen bear, takes a bite out of China | Business | The Guardian

Have a nice weekend.

[fxisland]

Attached is EUR/USD Monthly chart. Take your Cycle Lines tool and pull from:

Oct 2000 to April 2003.

This is a 31-month cycle period. The complete intervals are:

Oct 2000 (Start)

May 2003 (200% extension from Feb 2002 - July 2002 plot)

Dec 2005 (38.2% fib from Oct 2000 - Dec 2004 plot)

July 2008 (138.2% extension from Oct 2000 - Dec 2004 plot)

Feb 2011 (50% retrace from July 2004 - June 2010 plot) We are here now.

You can also add fib retracement plot from Oct 2000 low to July 2008 high.

Trend line July 2008 high to Nov 2010 high. Pair now facing resistance from this plot.

[fxisland]

GOLD on 30-min chart illustrates Mar 2nd Head & Shoulders pattern. The head is the same top shown on last GOLD chart with fib channel. We have a trend line on each "arm pit" (orange color). The ABC swings has Point C at the trend line resistance, prior to extending to the FE 127. Bottom had fib channel support. Currently GOLD has extended to its 138.2. The low for plot is the former FE 100 area pivot, and Friday's high .

[[Deleted]]

hi thanks for all , ur views guides me in correct path , pls give views about crude which is moving to new highs to meet its historical high , any tech views for crude pls update , thanks before

[fxisland]

Some price action from 07:00 GMT. Both EUR/JPY and USD/JPY playing out the respective ABC pattern breakout of Asian Low.

EUR/USD more of a belated pattern developing.

[fxisland]

Not sure how fresh the news is, but Moody's has downgraded Greece again, with "Negative OutlooK".

I thought they had them at junk status already. Might be reason for EURO weakness at the moment. Anyway, be guided accordingly.

[fxisland]

EUR/USD resumed it's up trend after initial reaction to weekend Moody downgrade on Greece, which followed Friday's warning on Spain by Fitch.

4-hour plot:

High = Feb 2nd 04:00 1.3861

Low = Feb 14th 12:00 1.3427

138.2 to upside = 1.4027 (hit this session at 09:00)

We understand there is supposed to be a Trichet speech today, but are unable to identify the time. Market has been pushing up the Euro of course, but especially since the ECB has been making hawkish comments.

[fxisland]

Baja bearish divergence 2nd peak candle 11:00, saw SELL entry at 15-min EFT open of 12:00 at 1.4029.

Made right shoulder prior to hit at 50% retrace fib 14:00 to pivot.

Retraced 50% and now attempting break Swing B price level. The ABC has its FE 127 right at 1.3957 ---- which would be a 100% retrace of 08:30 start point and fulfillment of H&S pattern.

[fxisland]

AUD did not register a BAJA SELL, but is completing a H&S of its own.

The original move up was a FE 127.

[fxisland]

Pic of EUR/USD H&S completed.