The London Open - page 163
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Despite an outbreak of Swine Flu (whatever that is) and some bickeringbetween the IMF and the G20 nations, today was as dull as an AlastairDarling speech. If you are looking for some positives you can find themin the price action of stocks today, where the scare mongerers and bearstried to get the price down but failed miserably despite all thecomparisons of SARS and other epidemics being banded around (I'm sureOutbreak will be on the TV again this week!). As for the IMF this onedoes confuse me a little. I mean the G20 nations did pledge another$500 billion extra (I am not 100% on this number so correct me if I amwrong) to the IMF and yet aside from China and the Middle East, whicheconomies/countries have 100s of billions sitting around ready to belent to someone else? Maybe I am missing the point but where ever Ilook, whether it be the UK or US economies, a company pension scheme, mybank account there is simply larger liabilities than assets. I am noaccountant but I am pretty sure this is a bad unsustainable situationand is the reason I continue to have a very bearish long term outlook onthe world. If some one can explain to me how we can magically get ridof all these holes/deficits/liabilities be my guest then maybe I can getout of my cave and enjoy the party. Until then I will continue to sellbonds into a rally and look to add cheap downside protection. May daythis week and therefore month end so expect some window dressing andhopefully more volatility than we saw today.
Mr P.....
Good morning team
I trust you are all well
Well done to those who traded Wall St with James yesterday afternoon in the room. A great short from 8060.00 region.
Asia has been busy overnight and bought truck loads of JPY. Happy days for anyone still short USDJPY. I am still holding 40% and targeting MS1 to bank a little more.
My first look tells me to stay away from all JPY currencies as they are oversold.
CABLE
• Its groundhog day and back at exactly the same level as yesterday
• Support now around the 1.4550 level
• Resistance at 1.4610
• I don’t really like a lot this morning but if we can get an 85 bid (or there abouts) its worth a short with a stop at 15 for a 30 pip ris
• 1.4550 needs to break to test 1.4520
Ok so i get prize plum or prize donkey of the day and the newbies teach me a lesson..
We all went short CABLE at 1.4580 and 1.4585 (stop at 15) with orders at 1.4545 below support.
I banked part at 1.4565 and then order got hit at 45 and then due to lack of price action cut everything at 1.4561.
I said i am going to cut due to lack of volatility and said to everyone as soon as i cut the price will fall...What happened??? Yes price falls to target at 1.4520.(hahaha).Everyone else made daily targets of around 50pips except for moi!!!
A prize plum, a prize donkey!!! Call me what u want...I got impatient and my sensible head said cut and take safety first. Silly looking back but management decision said cut.
Can´t win them all but well done to you all for your patience. Student of the day is Joan who took her first ever live trade and banked a whopping 30 + pips. Well done Joan...Its a great start.
D
PS U r all set now in EURUSD, CABLE & GBPCHF for next entries.
Nice little trade with Emmanuel on GBPCHF for 20 pips...
So apparently the US consumer is feeling quite confident at the moment?Has this number got anything to do with the fact that the stock markethas been rallying almost non stop for 2 months and politicians andcorporate CEO's have been watering the so called green shoots? Sorry asmuch as I love a good rally, I think its time to take a grip on reality.The reality is that there is a flu epidemic upon us. The reality isthat there was a WSJ story out this morning about BOFA and Citirequiring yet more capital. DB numbers on the face of it looked greathowever the scale of write-down's continue to increase at a faster ratethan the so called experts are forecasting. These same so calledexperts are forecasting that we have seen the worse and everything isfine and dandy. My market is in denial at the moment, we have anexpected bankruptcy/restructuring for Allibk and Btas, we have hadmultiple local defaults and we now have a potential Kazanorgsintezrestructuring (Did the consent 10 months ago). I have a few simplequestions to ask? How many banks have loan exposures to these names andwhere are they marked? These are the first probable defaults in myregion, does it set a precedent, does willingness to pay become anissue? I think the market has not asked itself these questions of lateand maybe I am being a little premature, however at some stage thisyear, my questions will be very relevant. A little more window dressingtomorrow and then its put your feet on the desks or go on holiday for afew days. I'm off home to look for some green shoots in my garden.
Mr P.....
I have been snowed under today so will reply tom properly. CABLE and GBPCHF were two clear trades this avo for double tops. Other than that i wouldnt have touched a bean. Al i think u took that CABLE trade. Well done...You are absolutely right about the 60min chart with its accuracy for S & R.
I do all my tech analysis on the 60min and only look at 5 or 15 for an entry.
You know my thoughts re trading after the 1st 3 hours of the day for novice traders..Anders and I will get this London Open rocking and rolling with EURUSD and CABLE each day. At the end of the day if you can make 50 to 100 pips on these two currency pairs, who needs to trade after 9.30am. I certainly don't...
Keep it simple and dont over trade. Pips come when you are patient and wait for good setups!
See u tom team...
D
Good morning
There is a serous lack of direction is these markets.
Wall St has hovered around 8,000 for over a week now and CABLE around 1.4600.
I have closed my 40% balance on USDJPY on break of the 60min 50ma. Now flat again!
CABLE
• Looks like the WP wants to hold as support now and not resistance
• Trend is still unsure so reduce ris
• Last night would have been a great long trade. Any long trade needs a stop below 1.4630 so a pullback to the 1.4660/65 region would be a good long play for a 30/35 pip risk
GBPJPY
• WP holding at resistance at 143.00. Any break with a 123 on 15min will be a good long play
• However there is a silver cross 141.60 so a stop needs to be below here around 141.40 if we pre-empt this break
• If CABLE and GBPJPY can retrace we should look for a long play from the 141.80 region for a 40 pip risk targeting WP and its break
Verdict
• GBP technically looks stronger than yesterday and looking for a buying opportunity with sensible risk
• Would like to use the 60min trigger if possible
• EURUSD looks well supported with weak USD and again would like to use 60min trigger
Hi
Couldn´t touch anything out there this am...Asia had the entries and didnt fancy 100 pip stop losses. I am loving CABLE but need to get my entry right. It will come and i will nail it but going to be patient.
We looked for entries on GBPJPY and EURJPY but they didnt come into our buy zone...
Only trade we took was USDJPY and lost 17 pips. I pre empted a break for a silver cross but it was too early. I will get my chance again as explained in the room and i will nail this one. (Closed my remaining short 40% yesterday in UJ from 98.30)..Lovely!!!
Better to be safe than sorry!!! (No pun included!!!)
All flat and raring to go...Bring on those pips!!!
See u later.
D
Ok my patience hasnt paid off today...
I read the trends in GBP, EUR & USD currencies spot on but the risk on entries were too high. I went for those slightly better entries and i missed the lot!!! A prize plum!!!
Gorilla is peeved!!! Huff, huff, huff...
Off for an early lunch
D
GBP offered an entry for a long at 85 region off the 60min 20ma...Kiss strategy!!!
This obviously depends on your view but i like GBP higher as u know. 1.4800/50 needs to break over the next 24 hours.
See u later.
D