The London Open - page 170
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Cable chart below...Its a funny market with the USD so confused.
Lets see how this turns out. Its limited risk with a stop above 1st resistance.
D
Well the week has come to an end...Been here since 4am
We shorted CABLE in the room (probably average was mid 30s) and as u you know i shorted at 1.5240and 1.5200. We banked at 1.5206 and 1.5286 and closed my last small part at 1.5225.
We shorted USDJPY at 95.70 and banked at 95.50, 95.40 and 95.08
We also took EURJPY and GBPJPY but did not promote this in the room so no need to tell u the results on these.
I am finito for the week and i might pop back in later on but i wont be hanging around today.
A long lunch is much in need.
Cheers
D
Good morning
Its Friday!!!
CABLE
• I shorted CABLE at 1.5200 (25%) and then (75%) at 1.5240 with a stop at 1.5260.
• The USD isn´t that strong but felt it was worth the risk for this technical play.
• This is the head and shoulders we were talking about yesterday.
• It is holding up well for now but limited risk.
Otherwise holding off on the other currencies.
Dan
Good Morning:=) Lets wait here and let the setups come. Im looking at usdcad later on for a potential drop. Not now. I need more feeling on the eurusd and eurjpy pairs to have a qualified trade for u on these two.. Asia has been positive and Europe is waiting for news at 10.00 uk time. Later we have Industrial production from US. Some plays will come but for now hold off. A patient morning is needed in my view so far. I ll come and talk about it later. So no levels to trade off atm. Cheers thx.
Anders
Good morning all….With better than expected numbers out of Japan last night fundamentally the Yen could strengthen some more.Yesterday we closed out our longer term USDJPY with 200 pips on the last part which was nice.Big resistance levels on all 4hr charts have yet to be penetrated and 60m double tops will pave the way for further falls.However, we will not be taking any further short positions north of the daily pivots (remember what happened with UJ yesterday AM)I am looking for cheeky potentials in all Yen pairs should the double tops appear with tight stops then will seek to add to those positions on the breaks south of the DP’s.A break of 95.70 on USDJPY will lead the way, whilst anyone looking to pre-empt a move might wish to try their luck on EURJPY with a tight stop above the figure.Small triangle has just broken! I am in from .75 having closed yesterdays little long play.Have a good morning.
Although there is a possibility of a double bottom at the pivot on USDJPY there is a small descending triangle forming so despite the golden cross, momentum is to the downside until 96.00 gets broken.A break of of 95.70 should see this a bit lower but not going to get caught out. being patient until .70 goes then can start to bould a small position. Stop would need to be 30 pip
JPY Desk
Hi all
I have really enjoyed this week and i would personally like to thank you for the positive feedback with the Club.
We are moving forward as a Club and if we take it month by month we will improve... I hope you like the way we adapt the style of the room and make the relevant changes depending on the performance of the room. We havent stopped learning and will keep improving over time.
Anders is a great addition to the trading team and we can only get stronger from here.
Exciting times and some great results.
Well done
D
Yes Vivek agree...
I think most are thinking that the Indices are due a sharp sell off. The question is when???
If these Indices can challenge their old highs, the sellers will gain confidence and start driving them lower. Should be interesting tomorrow if the DOW is close to the highs.
Haven't traded today as been away from PC. Lets have a cracker tomorrow.
Cheers
D
Hi
Not sure i have all the answers here... I was expecting a small retracement on the Indices and they rally! I was wrong...
I lost 30 pips on CABLE and wasnt quick enough to go long...That happens and thats life...Not going to get upset about it, as really thought the retracements would come on the Indices. Maybe this afternoon...
I own hindsight.com but its not worth owning this website as a trader (hahaha)..Always look forward as a trader and never back... Pointless as it will frustrate you.
I am flat and waiting to see where these Indices move from these highs.
Speak to u later.
D
Shouldn´t have taken a day off yesterday... 1st thing i saw was a 300 pip+ rally in dow and felt retracement..
I will make those pips back later this avo.
Keeping an eye on the JPYs closely.
D
Hi
CABLE looks set to fall but price action is too punchy at present...
DOW is falling from when Anders alerted you... I believe you have banked part around this 75 level for some tasty pips.
Other than that its been quiet for me. We will email you hopefully later tonight with a few longer term setups.
We have the email alert service up and running and we will email you our hot ideas for the day.
See u tom. What a tought day..I could have been teased in all over the place but kept my cool.
Happy to be flat and waiting for these JPY setups.
D
Lets start with the good news. The market continues to trade very welland bearing in mind the money that seems to be pouring out of moneymarket funds and towards riskier asset classes there is no reason whymany of the quasi sovs cannot tighten in further towards CDS levels.Clients worrying about underperforming their peers continue to pile in.The rally can continue until we reach potential new issuance levels andunfortunately for syndicate desks we are not quite there just yet.Spreads anywhere between 25 and 75 bp tighter, and surprisingly therewere some profit takers about despite the fact some clients seemedalmost desperate to put risk on the books. The bad news is that this rally cannot last forever. I am hearing thewall of money argument once again, I am hearing credits such as Phillyare back within 50bp of their all time tight spreads. As I said tosomeone earlier on today, the world and the markets have changed foreverhowever the market participants have not. They have short memories andfear they have missed one of the biggest rallies in history. Thereality of course is very different however for now the rally is veryreminiscent of August/September of 07 when the Fed started slashingrates. People calling the punch bowl effect, the carry trade is back onetc etc. Well today its all about green shoots of recovery and we haveseen the worse. The Uk press is doing the same thing with housing.First time buyers who were waiting as prices came off in 07 and 08 arenow piling back in fearing that they may miss the bottom and thinkingthat prices will return to 07 highs. All these arguments are laughable,spreads can but should not return to previous levels. Leverage is notwhat it used to be and fundamentals despite so called green shoots aremuch much worse. Same story with housing, ability to leverage up ismuch lower and the amount of people that have saved 25-35% deposits vscurrent offer prices are still small. People are talking about rentalyield as a reason to buy a house. Well what if rents collapse as peoplewho lose their job cant pay and migrating workers go back home becausethere are no jobs. How does the yield look if rents come off by 10 or20%! To put it simply the numbers do not add up, this is not a rallybased on fundamentals but one of hope and a fear that participants havemissed the greatest buying opportunity ever. If you believe in greenshoots I suggest your have a little trip to Ireland, Spain or Dubai andsee if you can find evidence of Spring there. As you may have guessed Idon't believe this rally. For me to become a believer I want to seeeconomic growth and real job creation (ie not by governments) and thenand only then will you hear me singing the Monkees classic most famou**** record. In addition I would like a word on Kazakhstan. We have now seendefaults of 3 major financial issuers from Kazakhstan ie Bta, Allibk andnow Astana. Despite this other Kazakh banks continue to rally in linewith the rest of the market and ignore this quite scary trend. Theconfidence in Kazakhstan is shot to bits, it will be a long time beforeinvestors return to invest in a Kazakh bank therefore is it a given thatthe authorities will support the other banks that haven't defaulted yet?Answers on a post card please, for now lets enjoy this inanity until asis always inevitable it all ends in tears, and cries of "I thought I hadlearnt my lesson this time!"
Mr P........
Morrning
Quite simply i have no idea how to explain this market.
I have a small position in USDJPY but otherwise i am completely flat. This market is nuts and we have to back off from it today. Golf beckons because i cant read this market.
I will be honest with you when i can´t read it!!! After a cracking week (last week), this week i feel i cant read a chart. Its not me but the levels the markets are at.
I am not trading and havent traded today and will come back tomorrow.
See u.
D