The London Open - page 180
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Good morning team
As expected Indices have continued their respective falls. Oil is back down at 62.72 and continues to look weak. On the back of that the USD will likely remain supported until we see the Indices find support.
CABLE
• Daily, 4hr and 60min trends are down and we should be looking to either add to a short or get short on a trend reversal
• 1.6057 is the low from yesterday so a break through here would push us down towards the 1.6000 level which is bound to hold a little support
• You can play this break with a very tight stop above the 57 level but make sure the short term CCI´s are not too oversold at the time of entry
• Technically I would like to see a pullback this morning back up to the DP or just above at 1.620
• From here I would then be looking for a lower high to confirm a double top before another push lower again
• Everything is positioned in the red and therefore trying to play the retracement up for a few pips will be difficult
• For me it could be a patient morning for CABLE and wait for the 60min trend to change before I even tempt going long
• Verdict is still to wait for the double top and trade with the trend again
EURUSD
• Daily, 4 hr and 60min trends are down and we should be looking for a short play through the respective support levels
• Key support is at 1.3876 and we should look for a break through here for further downside potentia
• As it stands the USD could go either way this am and with higher highs on the 15min chart I would like to see a change in direction with a double top before a short play (with trend) back down to support at 1.387
JPY´s
• With USDJPY finally falling..(How long did that take!!!) EURJPY and GBPJPY have had the confidence to go with
• They are bother slightly oversold and would like a small pullback (same as CABLE & EURUSD) before continuing their downtrends
• Would like to see GBPJPY back towards the 153.20 region and EURJPY back to the 132.00 area
• Remember to use the triggers to your advantage here and look for double tops on the short term charts to confirm trend reversals
Verdict
• If you want to trade with the trend this morning then patience is needed
• We are up a lot of pips this week, so let’s not get too greedy with trading against the tren
Dan
Its as quiet as a snail in a shoe box today...
Go and have fun.
See u tom.
D
Stocks, commodities all struggling to find a mojo and yet EM still feelsfine. I am not sure if it's the money that was pumped into VTB thisweek via the CBR either way the market feels ok. Another market that isapparently doing very well is the high grade world. I am hearing newdeals flying out the door every other hour with many times oversubscribed books. Someone asked me earlier where is this liquiditycoming from? Clearly some is coming from the central banks and I amassuming we continue to see money market flows as well, however whetherthe cash from QE finds its way into real money is a question of debate.I don't know if I am being super sceptical but this market reminds me ofthe Nasdaq in 2000, everyone is piling into these new issues like theyare a guaranteed way to make money and we know how that one ended.Bottom line the market is difficult to call as the fundamentals remainawful but the liquidity remains ample.
Mr P......
Good morning all
USDJPY as expected has made that big drive down towards the $90.00 which has helped EJ & GJ on their way. As mentioned yesterday you need a little patience with these trades and you must keep a firm eye on that 4 hour chart to give you that confidence to hold trades overnight.
OIL and Indices are still in a strong down trend which is assisting the USD. Every trade has been with the trend and that’s why JULY is such a good month
CABLE
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma
• 15min CCI and 60min CCI are both positive suggesting a little life in the beast. However lets remember the 4hr and daily trend is down
• 1.6072 is immediate support but selling here with the DP and 15min 50ma at 1.6050 is risky
• 1.6000 is always going to see a few brave buyers out there so we need to respect this level
• For me the only trade is a 123 through the DP with the main trend
• If I hit the break I will surely let you know
• If for what ever reason OIL & Indices start to find support I would only be looking for a long back above 1.6142 with a 123
EURUSD
• Very similar setup as CABLE
• USDCHF is holding this fella back and would like to see the CHF break 1.0952
• Some of you (in school) would have been sent my detailed video on EURUSD yesterday and we are still holding 50% after banking 85 pips
• Same as CABLE I will be looking for a 123 south through the DP at 77
• That 15min 50ma is like an Australian wicket keeper and catches a lot of people out
• We need to see a break and then a pullback for any short play with the main trend
• On the upside if USDCHF break 1.0850 then EURUSD would find support
• No that keen on a huge long so would have to play 123 on a technical setup through the resistance at 1.3915
USDJPY
• Same setup as CABLE and EURUSD
• Major trend down, our15min 50ma behind the stumps so lets be patient and wait for the 123 and get all MA¨s behind us
• 93.00 is the immediate support and 93.50 resistance
• If this goes watch EURJPY through 128.75 & GBPJPY through 148.9
Good morning all.
Quite a different day here yesterday, getting to grips with the whole dollar strength thing, poaching a few off the Swissie, smashing the Kiwi and for those of you fortunate to be part of the video alerts, almost a couple of hundred on the Gold to round off a great day.
Today looks like a different story altogether for the dollar. There is a potential for a double bottom on yesterdays low at 80.51, but there seems to be more bias at this stage of the day, for it to fall through here and head back to the daily 20 or lower.
Dow fell aggressively early into the US session along with commodities and yet the Dollar didn’t really take advantage of the situation until falling back somewhat late on with the Wall St bounce.
I am liking the buck down a bit this morning yet all dollar related currencies are still set up for shorts, so we must be a little cautious until such time as the 60m 20 crosses the 50.
USDCAD
This can make a little run south with the Dollar.
4hr 1hr & 15m trends are all telling me to take a small short one here to the 4hr 50 at 11625 and and then to the weekly pivot at around the 11550 level
Stops would need to be 40 pips above the price around the 15m 50sma at 11660.
AUDUSD
Again this is based on a weaker US dollar. If dollar weakness fails to materialise the leave this.
60m trend and 15m trend trying to push up against the longer term 4hr trend.
Always a little caution required but a chance that a break up through 0.7820 could see this to the 60m 50 somewhere up around the 0.7880 level.
Stop would ideally need to be situating itself just below the pivot.
We could even look for a 5m double top around the 60m 50 / 4hr 20 region at 07880 then go short with the main trend if USD finds support later.
Not massive pipers but a couple of small potentials playing the counter-trends.
Always use smaller stakes when playing against the 4hr trend.
Have a good morning
Good afternoon
All these notes are emailed to you at 6.30am each morning.
It was a good day and we are building well for July. Zia was student of the day yesterday with 600 pips.
Today we went long of EURJPY and GBPJPY for a total of 65 pips. We also shorted UJ for 20 pips and still holding part.
We are respecting the trends and only playing breakouts against the trend for short term plays.
Overall another great day and kept it very tight. We are all set up for the big plays with the trend and hopefully they get hit later this afternoon.
D
Ok so played break in EJ at 75, banked at DP which is support, shorted again at 80 for the 123 and looking for it to now break the DP which is the neckline. You can keep a tight stop above the figure if u like which was the previous break.
Lets see.
D
Banked the short again at the DP and will re enter on break of DP ...
A solid 100 plus pip trade...
D
Good morning all
This market could go either way today so lets be patient for the direction.
Wall St is stuck in its range above 8,000 and below 8,187. We really need to see a break of one of these levels to help kick start the market again.
Yesterday saw the USD weaken across the board and we should now keep a firm eye on USDCHF as a guide to see if this trend will continue. I for one will only be looking to sell USDCHF if it breaks back below 1.0785 which avoids the trap of the 15min 50ma. Wait for the break and play the 123 for confirmation.
CABLE
• A lot will depend on the USD (as mentioned) so keep an eye on DOW FT and USDCHF.
• The rally was strong yesterday and today we need to see early support for GBP to have any chance to remain up here.
• Technically the 60min trend is up but the 15min 50ma is above the price at the moment at 1.6340 so we must hold off.
• I would like to see a 123 through the MP with a positive bounce off the 15min MA Golden Cross. That would give me the confidence to go long.
• We have seen how strong the DPs have been in the past so on the downside I would need to see a break of the DP and a 123.
• 1st level of support is 1.6265 & DP at 1.6247. Wait for breaks.
EURUSD
• Similar to CABLE and we must be patient.
• For me only long play if we have a 123 through the MP at 1.4041.
• The 15min 50ma is above so we need to be patient on any long plays and wait for 15min Golden cross.
• On the downside we are boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma which makes it hard to trade from here.
• All CCI´s suggest down and a break through 1.3962 would suggest weakness in EUR but technically we might be better to play EURJPY.
GBPJPY
• Technically the 4hr looks reasonably weak but the short term charts showing signs of strength.
• The 60min trend is up for now but a break below 150.75 must surely mean further weakness in GBP, with the 4hr trend winning the battle.
• Lets look for a break of this level and if the CCI´s are oversold at entry then wait for the 123.
EURJPY
• 4 hourly and Daily trend are down.
• The previous low on the 4 hour candle is 129.64.
• This is probably setup better than any other chart as we stand with limited risk.
• Lets look for the break of this support and hopefully UJ below 92.76 for a move lower.
• The DP, 60min 20ma and 50ma etc are behind us so all we need is a break of 64 to test WS3 at 129.20 region as 1st target.
• Lets keep an eye on UJ and EURUSD for any signs of JPY strength and EUR weakness.
Verdict
EURJPY is set up the best for a short through support at 129.64 but would like to see UJ and EURUSD pushing lower.
Morning all
We said we wanted to make early pips and we did just that.
As per the notes EURJPY was our lowest risk and highest probability trade. Some shorted EURUSD as well so got double the amount of pips.
We shorted on teh break at 129.64 and chipped away with small banking on the way down with the last bank at 128.90. (We also sold Uj and chipping away with that as well from 92.75 to 92.47)
As mentioned before June was a sideways market so limited pips for me. July starts and trends come flying our way and we make 1000+ pips in a week again.
Golf this afternoon so enjoy the rest of the day and lets get 1000 pips again next week.
D