The London Open - page 139
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What a morning and controlled trading again...
We concentrated on shorting GBPCHF, GBPUSD & GBPJPY (manily) but pips were made by Team London in GOLD & EURGBP as well...
Over 100 pips again this am and the end of the month is looking good on the pip count again. Thats 3 sessions with over 100+ pips in each.
Well traded...
D
New York Open Notes - Thursday 26th February
Good afternoon all…..
USDJPY is still moving up slowly. It’s sooo bid this market that contemplating anything short on Yen pairs is proving to be very difficult.
Unemployment claims and Durable goods numbers out this afternoon so best to be cautious until they pass.
Anything under -1.9 for durable goods and less than 610k on unemployment should see USDJPY move up rather rapidly but cannot buy at these levels.
For the record, the mentioned pair is controlling EURJPY and GBPJPY so these two have moved a lot so no notes are going to get us into either of these this session.
USDCHF- look for break below 11600 if EURUSD breaks north of 12810
GBPCHF-look for break above pivot at 16700 if USDCHF finds support at 11600 and EURUSD fails to hold above 12800. alternatively wait for little drop back to 60m 20 at 16635 then play bounce back up to the pivot to see what happens.
EURCHF needs to break WP at 14830 for continuation down.
I will be keeping you posted but Yens are out unless USDJPY can break below 97.60 on back of bad numbers. I’d be looking to target 97.00 if that’s the case.
Have a good afternoon.
Well for a nice change this closing commentary will be full of joy and good news (well the first few lines will). The market thanks to various bail out packages in the UK and the US plus RBS only losing £24bn last year equates to a market in a buoyant mood. In addition I am pleased to report that I even saw some buying in Kazakh banks. On the most part investors are steering well clear of Allibk and Bta however we are seeing buying of Halyk and KKB which were hit in the cross fire, an encouraging sign. Elsewhere despite the weaker govy market and better stock markets, it felt like there were plenty of Russian corporates for sale in the street as the local bid slowly disappears. As always I am very sceptical of crowded trades, if the sheep are running in one direction I tend to try and go the other way although as always timing is key as a flock of sheep can still do you some nasty damage. The one trade that seems to be all the rage at the moment are high grade corporate issuance. I am hearing record sized deals, superb secondary performance, its almost reminiscent of the Nasdaq IPO boom of 2000, anything with a .com on it is a no brainer you know the rest. My point is at some stage I guarantee this will all end in tears and when it does EM will get caught in the crossfire especially Russian Corps that continue to look fair value at best vs the rest of the world. Amazingly its month end tomorrow so further window dressing cannot be ruled out, January was a good month for most banks and funds February has not been so friendly.
Mr P......
Well traded today...
A good morning but quiet afternoon session. As you know, a good trader knows when to stay out of the market!
See you at 7.00am tom. Its friday and cant wait...
D
London Open Notes - Friday 27th February
Good morning all
It’s Friday and we have to have to happy on Fridays so no negative talk about the economy!! Let’s make a few cheeky pips and then enjoy the weeke
CABLE
Ok GBPJPY is boxed in so we need to wait for CABLE direction.
The 60min chart looks bearish with eth 60min 20ma crossing the 50ma.
15min chart is being held by the 1.4250 level.
Look for GBPJPY for direction with GBP.
EURUSD
Support around the 1.2675 level
Resistance at top of triangle around the 1.2775 level.
Look for EUR direction with EURJPY to gauge which direction the break will go.
My longer term thoughts are that the EUR falls off but aren’t exactly receiving good news from the States or the UK recently
EURGBP
Resistance at 0.8925 level
Support at WP and 4hr 20ma at 0.8885 level.
Look for EURUSD and GBPUSD for help with direction and wait for break.
USDCAD
A difficult chart to trade at the moment.
Will the WP hold support at 1.2525 and push up to break resistance at 1.2600?
Well for this to happen you need GBPJPY to break 4hr 20ma and CABLE to break lower and test lows at 1.4150 again.
AUDUSD
60min support line and any break through the 0.6425 level would signal a break and a push lower.
You need USD strength across the board for this to happen so get confirmation from USDCAD pushing higher and EURSD pushing lower.
GOLD
This is a small retracement before pushing higher again I feel.
Triangle formed and look for break or play inside triangle with a tight stop.
Enjoy
Dan
JPY Desk -Friday 27th February
Good morning all…..
End of the week and looking forward to relaxing in the sun for a couple of days.
It doesn’t look like our 100.00 will get hit on USDJPY today sadly so might have to wait a bit on that.
Look at the daily chart for GBPJPY too. In desperate need of a pullback!
So,
USDJPY
• Fell through the 60m 20ema eventually but has now bounced off the 60m 50sma so awaiting clear confirmation before getting excited.
• Might be worth a little short here with a tiny stake and 30 pip stop above the pivot
• Can’t go long below 98.50
• Prefer GBPJPY myself
GBPJPY
• Bounced off 4hr 20ema twice now so showing signs of fatigue
• Double top at 142.00
• Cannot go long below 140.50 and a 400 point pullback to 4hr 50sma preferred
• Looking for break below 139.00
EURJPY
• Had a nice run and looking for short here too
• A break of 4hr 20ema at 123.65 will show the way but as with all yen pairs this session tight stops beyond the pivots will be – in my humble opinion – quite lucrative plays
Swiss pairs are looking too messy to even contemplate so sticking with my guns and shorting all yen pairs only!
Verdict……..
Only looking to buck the longer term trends today.
Have taken small positions on all 3 off the 60m 20’s
Wait for averages to get broken before diving in head-first if uncomfortable with this method
Hi all
What a day....We had a plan, we attacked it and made cheeky little pips before breakfast.
GBPJPY, CABLE, EURJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD for many.
Spread the risk, tight stops and the rest takes care of itself. Some made over 400, others 200 and most over a 100...
A perfect execution on this currency market...Well done Team London. Very impressed with how you are all trading.
Its weekend time for me.
See ya
D
New York Open Notes - Friday 27th February
Good afternoon all…..
Dan has left the building, James is back in UK so its just me myself and I this afternoon and when the cats are away the mice, they’re going to play!
1m charts anyone??
GDP out of States today so being careful. It’s Friday too so not going to go mad.
USDJPY
Cheeky little punt turned out OK here but needs to fall below 97.00 to continue
Fancying a bit of sideways action awaiting ma’s to catch up so quite tough to call.
GBPJPY
A solid 100 plus pips here this morning on the break of 4hr 20ema
Still liking it a bit lower and holding part position
Needs to break 137.65 to continue but not looking to go long
EURJPY
Still short and hoping for a bit more
Entry points proving difficult
CABLE
Fallen nicely and maybe a bit more to go yet although WS1 directly below
Needs to break that for push lower. Can’t jump in here
EURUSD
Looks weak below 12650 and with a tight stop above 12675 this could push lower
Only have 5m and 15m 20’s as resistance so not one to really get stuck into but a few pips possible
Verdict……..
Not looking overly appealing at the moment. Lets see what happens after the news…
EURUSD would have to be the pick at the moment though
Zak
Have a great weekend everyone!!!
Some one had a go at me earlier about wishing my life away, they had apoint however good riddance to February. Pretty quiet end to atraumatic month with Kazakh bonds making a come back of sorts andRussian corps feeling weak without really trading. I am not sure if itis because its Friday but I feel smalls bullish here. My reasoning isthat clearly the problem banks in the UK and US are not to be let go andalthough I still think the equities of these names are worth zero, thesteps that the authorities have made should give some stability to thissector for now. As always my view is very short term and although wemay have stopped the bleeding in the banks for now I still believe thatmarket forces will prevail and that will mean further pain for equityand fixed income investors over the medium term. Enjoy the weekend all.
Mr P....
Hi
There were fantastic results in the room and i am very proud that the strategy is starting to fall into place for so many of you.
Enjoy the weekend. We will continue to make a lot of pips as long as we keep the risk sensible and not get carried away.
Well done team and see you monday at 6.50am.
Dan