USDCAD news - page 32
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USD/CAD: Loonie Flat on Higher Oil Prices, Weaker Economic Outlook
The USD/CAD was down 0.12% and trading at C$1.2947. The session's intraday low was C$1.2922.
"CAD risk lies to the downside as we consider the continued widening in yield spreads and deterioration in expectations for BoC policy following last week's weaker trade data and ongoing concerns surrounding the impact of Alberta's wildfires," said Eric Theoret, currency strategist at Scotiabank.
As the massive Alberta wildfire slowly calms down, economists are estimating the damage to the economy.
ARC Financial said that oilsands companies are losing $70 million every day that are not producing. Moreover, a majority of Canadian economists have already downgraded Canada's overall economic outlook for the rest of 2016.
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of May 16, 2016
The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a bit of a hammer. The hammer sits just below the 1.30 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant number. This is also an area where we had seen a lot of support previously, so having said that it’s likely that we could break out to the upside. If we can get above the 1.30 level, this pair could continue to grind its way much higher as we have been a bit oversold recently. Remember, the Canadian dollar is highly influenced by the oil markets, so pay attention to them. As well rises, this pair tends to fall as it favors the Canadian dollar in the Forex markets as well.
On the other hand, if we managed to break down below the bottom of the hammer for the week, it would be very negative and would send this market much lower. This would have to come simultaneously with a rise in the oil markets, so we have to keep an eye on both of those markets as they do tend to correlate very nicely. However, it looks as if the oil markets are struggling at this point in time as we are running into significant resistance above. That should send this market higher.
If we do rally from here, we could very well find yourselves going all the way to the 1.35 handle, which of course is the next large, round, psychologically significant number above the 1.30 handle. Remember, we have been in a strong uptrend until recently, so it be interesting see how the market reacts to this most recent turnaround over the last couple of weeks. I do see quite a bit of noise though, so it’s not a silly going to be the easiest way to make to the upside, it just seems to be the more obvious move at this point in time. Having said that, keep in mind that there will be a lot of volatility to hang onto.
source
April 2016 Canadian CPI 1.7% vs 1.7% exp y/y
Details from the April 2016 Canadian CPI inflation data report 20 May 2016
The BOC may be sitting on their hands policy wise but they may not be able to ignore the core gradually ticking up. The BOC aims to keep inflation at 2%, which is the mid point of their 1-3% target range, so if we see the headline creep above 2% we might start getting some hawkish noises.
Canadian March retail sales ex autos -0.3% vs -0.4% expected
Canadian retail sales data for March:
The autos numbers hurt the headline but the ex-autos reading was a touch stronger and with a slight revision upwards.
The CPI numbers were also a bit better but the Canadian dollar edged lower nonetheless. I think with all the emphasis on oil prices, the US dollar, risk appetite and the Fed that there isn't enough of a miss on anything to shift the market's gaze.
USD/CAD forecast for the week of May 23, 2016
The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough buying pressure underneath the 1.30 level to continue going higher, and as a result it looks as if the market looks like it’s going to go higher. The 1.32 level above is the resistance barrier that we need to overcome in order to go higher from a longer-term perspective. Looking at the candle for the week, we believe that this market should continue to go higher. If we can get above the 1.32 level, the market should then grind all the way back towards the highs. There is a lot of noise between here and there, and of course the Canadian dollar is massively influenced by the oil markets, which of course has been very volatile as of late.
Looking at the chart though, it does appear that we are going to see a bit of a pullback in the value the Canadian dollar, so having said that we could get a bit of a move higher. Again, above the 1.32 level we should see quite a bit of bullish pressure, but I do believe that various levels along the way could cause pullbacks. I also believe the pullbacks will be thought of as value in the US dollar, and as a result it’s likely that people will be very interested once we do get the breakout. You have to keep in mind that the hammer that form during the previous week at the 1.30 level was a very bullish sign, but of course there is quite a bit of volatility in this area.If we did manage break below the bottom of the hammer from the previous week, that would be a very negative sign, but I would prefer to see that coordinated with higher oil prices to start shorting again. Ultimately, the could go as high as the 1.45 handle again, but it is going to take quite a bit of time to get to that area as the volatility will make this an interesting play.
source
Keep Chasing USD/CAD Higher
The US dollar continues to surge higher against the Canadian dollar and trades at 1.3117.
We have continued to see USD CAD moving higher as oil prices soften and rate spreads move further in favour of the US over Canada, risking further investor catch-up.
Expect evidence of further US/ CAD Q2 macro-economic divergence as today is set to see another disappointing domestic data release.
Our colleagues in CIBC Capital Markets Economics expect wholesale trade to decline by 0.7% in March, compared to a median expectation of a 0.5% fall.
Moreover, with retail sales tomorrow also likely to materially undershoot expectations, underlining a weak retail handover into Q2, expect USD CAD topside to remain in play, this comes as the break of 1.3015 opens the way for 1.3130 and above there 1.3170 and 1.32.
Only a close back below 1.3015 would risk compromising maintaining topside targets into the mass of data ahead of the long holiday weekend.
We have continued to see USD CAD moving higher as oil prices soften and rate spreads move further in favour of the US over Canada, risking further investor catch-up.
Expect evidence of further US/ CAD Q2 macro-economic divergence as today is set to see another disappointing domestic data release. Our colleagues in CIBC Capital Markets Economics expect wholesale trade to decline by 0.7% in March, compared to a median expectation of a 0.5% fall.
Moreover, with retail sales tomorrow also likely to materially undershoot expectations, underlining a weak retail handover into Q2, expect USD CAD topside to remain in play, this comes as the break of 1.3015 opens the way for 1.3130 and above there 1.3170 and 1.32.
Only a close back below 1.3015 would risk compromising maintaining topside targets into the mass of data ahead of the long holiday weekend.
source
USDCAD drops after BOC announcement
It took a little while for the market to jump in but the pair is now off around 70 pips from the announcment
We edged through the support I highlighted earlier to trade down to 1.3053. It was a bit of a delayed reaction as the initial move was only 30 odd pips.
That break through the 1.3075/80 area may mean we see it become resistance.
USD/CAD: Loonie Surprises Markets as Commodity-Based Currencies Rise
The USD/CAD pair was down 0.31% and traded at C$1.2979, after hitting an intraday low of C$1.2946 earlier in the session — a level last seen on May 17.
"The USD is having a down day. Most G-10 currencies are strengthening against the big dollar, with the commodity bloc (for the most part) leading the pack overall as commodity prices firm," said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.
The resource-linked loonie was boosted by oil prices moving higher on Thursday and nearing the $50 level. Later in the session, crude gave back some of its gains. Futures for WTI edged down 0.61% to trade at $49.26 per barrel, while Brent futures lost 0.78% $49.35 per barrel. Both benchmarks hit their multi-month highs during the early morning trade.
Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BoC) statement also strengthened the Canadian dollar. The central bank chose to keep its key overnight rate unchanged at 0.5%, while stressing that Canada's economic adjustment to the oil price shock has been uneven.
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of May 30, 2016
The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support below the 1.30 level to form a hammer. The hammer of course is a very bullish sign at this point in time, if we can break above that hammer I believe that the market will continue to go higher. A break above the top the hammer coinciding with the oil markets falling should be a nice signal to start going long as well. Currently, the oil markets are at the $50 level, an area that has massive implications. If we pullback from there, this market will almost have to go higher in reaction. The market had recently been negative, but over the longer term looks as if the uptrend may very well still be intact.
If we can break above here, the next target will probably be the 1.35 level, and then eventually the 1.40 level. Keep in mind though that of course the oil markets will be heavily influential, and they have been rallying quite significantly lately. With that being the case expect quite a bit of volatility, as the market will continue to be influenced by not only the oil market, but the overall strength and weakness of the US dollar going forward as well. Remember, the Federal Reserve is still under the microscope as far as interest rates announcements are concerned, and that of course will influence what the greenback does in general.
This pullback has been rather sharp and steep, so at the very least I believe that a bounce makes a lot of sense at this point in time, and could simply just be corrective. A corrective bounce still can make quite a bit of money for it, so you have to keep in mind that a corrective bounce on a falling we seen recently could have this market going to at least the 1.35 level. Quite frankly, I’m not comfortable selling as we have seen such a significant fight just below. Pay attention to oil, and perhaps even the US Dollar Index along with this chart.
USD/CAD: Loonie Retreats on Fed Tightening Outlook
The USD/CAD pair was up 0.38% and trading at C$1.3070, after hitting an intraday low of C$1.3036.
Markets digested Canada's current account gap climbing to C$16.8 billion in Q1. The measure is released by Statistics Canada and analyzes trade in goods, services and investment on a quarterly basis.
The Q1 data was not bad news for the market that expected even worse results after analysts' consensus projected a gap of C$17.5 billion.
Meanwhile, Canada's Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) was down 0.5% in April, after a fall of 0.6% in March. In contrast, the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) climbed 0.7% in April, after a hike of 4.5% in the previous month.
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Canada Q1 GDP annualized +2.4% vs +2.8% exp
Canadian GDP data now out 31 May 2016
A mixed bag of data but softer than expected overall sees USDCAD back up to 1.3070 from 1.3035. Offers /res between 1.3080-1.3100
Exports of good and services the largest contributor to real Q1 GDP growth with a rebound of 6.9% from the Q4 decline.