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UK data releases finally begin to shift into the post-referendum period in the week ahead with the release of July CPI and retail sales.
Our economists expect CPI to have remained at 0.5% y/y and we expect retail sales to fall by 0.7% following on the 0.9% decline reported for June. Jobs data will also be released covering the April to June pre-referendum period and this release is expected to provide more evidence of already deteriorating activity before the vote.
All this should reinforce expectations for further BOE easing.
We remain bearish on the GBP, targeting GBPUSD to reach 1.24 in the weeks ahead.