AUD/USD news - page 23
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of July 27, 2015
The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough resistance near the 0.75 level to turn things back around and start falling rapidly. The gold markets of course have been breaking down and that of course has us thinking that the Australian dollar will continue to go much lower. After all, the Australian dollar is highly leveraged to the gold markets, and as that is the case, this market should continue to try to find support at lower levels. We believe that the Australian dollar will more than likely try to reach towards the 0.70 level, which of course is the next large, round, psychologically significant number and an area that is massively supportive on the longer-term charts.
If we broke above the top of the shooting star, and more importantly the 0.7500 level, we feel that the market could run into quite a bit of volatility. However, we have no interest in buying this pair until we clear the 0.80 handle above, house the downtrend is so strong. We think that short-term rallies could be selling opportunities as well, so we are not necessarily sticking with just long-term charts. The volatility will continue in our opinion, as the summertime trading situation is normally fairly illiquid. With this, we could see quite a bit of choppiness.
We believe that ultimately this pair goes down to the 0.70 level but will struggle in that general vicinity. It’s hard to tell whether or not we can break down below there, quite frankly we think it comes down to a couple of things: gold markets, and of course Asian demand for hard commodities. At this point in time, the latter of the 2 looks very soft. With that being the case, we have absolutely no interest in buying the Australian dollar at this point in time, it would be quite surprised to see any significant rally in this market over the course of the next several weeks. At that point in time, it would probably just be an invitation to sell quite frankly.
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AUD/USD Forecast July 27-31
AUD/USD continues to struggle, as the pair posted losses for a fifth straight week. AUD/USD lost about 90 points and closed the week at 0.7277. This week’s highlights are Building Approvals and PPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
US numbers showed improvement this week, as New Home Sales jumped and unemployment claims dropped sharply. In Australia, some strong numbers were not enough to prevent the Aussie slide from continuing. CPI jumped 0.7% in Q1, its highest gain since Q4 of 2013. As well, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence was up sharply.
* All times are GMT.
Thanks, really useful info!
AUDUSD: Bears continue to sell into 1:1 rallies
The bears have continued to sell into 1:1 rallies several weeks with the most recent 1:1 (Blue) attracting plenty of selling interest early last week.
The most important level to keep a close eye on in this degree is the 1:1 (Yellow) that comes in at 0.7415, as long as the market stays below this level the current downtrend will remain intact and the bears in full control.
Moving down to the 1 hour chart we can see that the market is currently hitting its head against an important 1:1 (Blue) and 38.2 Fibonacci level that are in close proximity.
If this level can continue to attract selling interest a test of the days low becomes a possibility. However, and break above this resistance zone will see some further short covering take place with the next resistance not seen until the 50 Fibonacci level at 0.7352.
AUD/USD: Aussie Stays Below 2-Week Resistance After Fed
The aussie remained under pressure on Wednesday, trading in negative territory against the US dollar after the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at a record low after its two-day meeting.
Policymakers noted that the labor market delivered "solid job gains" that led to a decline in unemployment, leading to a further decline in slack after the jobless rate sank to 5.3% in June, its lowest level since April 2008.
However, the statement was more dovish when it comes to the assessment of inflation trends, where officials acknowledged the recent commodities sell-off by omitting the phrase "energy prices appear to have stabilized."
In the afternoon, the aussie declined 0.42% to trade at $0.7304 against the greenback, once the initial Fed induced turmoil vanished, staying below the two-week resistance at $0.7350.
As for the macro updates, US traders digested downbeat pending home sales in July, showing an unexpected 1.8% drop, from the 0.9% seen previously. The market survey had pointed to an unchanged reading of 0.9% month-on-month in June.
The divergence between monetary policies is set to remain and this should keep the pair under pressure, targeting levels below the $0.70 handle in the medium term.
Looking ahead, the next major macro update from Australia will be building approvals later tonight. Analysts anticipate the slowdown of 1.0% on a monthly basis in June, falling from the 2.4% booked previously.
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AUD/USD weekly outlook: August 3 - 7
The Australian dollar fell to a more than five-year low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday before bouncing back following the release of sluggish U.S. wage growth data.
The Department of Labor reported that the U.S. employment-cost index, a measure of workers’ wages and benefits, rose just 0.2% in the second quarter. It was the smallest quarterly increase since records began in 1982 and was well below economists’ expectations of a 0.6% increase.
The unexpectedly weak data prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial hike in short term interest rates.
AUD/USD fell to 0.7236 on Friday, the pair's lowest since April 2009, before turning higher to subsequently consolidate at 0.7308, up 0.21% for the day. For the week, the pair ticked up 0.32%, the first weekly gain in six weeks.
The Aussie still lost 5.24% against the greenback in July amid speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in nine years as early as September.
The central bank sounded more upbeat about the economy following its policy meeting last week, leaving the door open for an interest-rate hike as soon as September.
In its rate statement published Wednesday, the Fed described the economy as expanding "moderately," while upgrading its view of the labor and housing markets.
The Fed gave no clear indication of the timing of the next rate hike, but left itself room to act as early as September, citing "solid" gains in the job market and "additional" improvement in the housing sector.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday that the economy grew 2.3% in the second quarter, missing expectations for growth of 2.6%, but improving from growth of 0.6% in the preceding quarter.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 97.32 late Friday, paring the week’s gains to 0.1%.
The dollar index rose 1.86% in July, boosted by expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates as soon as September if the economy continues to improve as expected.
The Aussie was also pressured by plunging commodity prices and steep declines on China's stock market last week.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for July, for fresh indications on the strength of the economy and the timing of a U.S. rate increase.
Market players will also be focusing on the outcome of a policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
read more
Relatively calm day.
AUD/USD: Aussie Rallies Above $0.73 as RBA Stays Put -
The Australian dollar extended overnight gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy unchanged, with rates untouched at 2%.
"The Board today judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting," the statement from Governor Glenn Stevens said on Tuesday.
On the news, the aussie rallied to fresh intraday highs, up 0.65% to $0.7331.
The AUD/USD is currently mostly pressured by falling commodity prices. "The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices," Stevens wrote in the statement.
"While the rate of growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages, it has been associated with somewhat stronger growth of employment and a steady rate of unemployment over the past year. Overall, the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet," Stevens further said.
Stevens further said that "domestic inflationary pressures have been contained" and that inflation is forecast "to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate."
AUD/USD: Aussie Under Pressure After Record ISM Services -
The aussie modestly declined against the greenback on Wednesday, falling below its two-week high at $0.7429 reached yesterday amid the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) statement and the rate decision.
Therefore, the ongoing bearish sentiment along with the fresh macro updates stood against the aussie's further attempts. On the other hand, a weaker-than-anticipated release of the ADP employment change, considered to be the non-farm payrolls' forerunner limited the steeper AUD/USD movement back toward its six-year bottom at $0.7232.
"More dollar gains are dependant on how payrolls data is on Friday and whether earnings are picking up," Nordea FX strategist Niels Christensen mentioned "A good payrolls number will no doubt support Lockhart's view and help the dollar gain more ground."
On Wednesday, the aussie decreased 0.36% to $0.7352 against the buck, staying slightly above the twice-tested intraday low at $0.7333, while the US dollar index added 0.14% to 98.18 points.
Busy macro morning
As mentioned, a heavy load of economic updates in the US kept traders occupied all morning, starting with the disappointing ADP release which showed the US private sector added only 185,000 jobs in July. Meanwhile, the market survey had bet on a stronger reading at 215,000 job adds.
Moreover, the trade deficit in the US also came out with a worse number, expanding to $43.8 billion in June, after May's upwardly revised $40.9 billion.
Later in the morning, the services sector in the US sent a powerful message, with both indicators jumping above expectations. First, the less significant Markit services PMI grew more than expected to 55.7 points in July, while analysts had anticipated 55.2 points.
Finally, the real upside shock came in the form of a ten-year high for the ISM non-manufacturing index, rocketing to 60.3 points in July according to the fresh update.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of August 10, 2015
The AUD/USD pair initially tried to fall during the course of the week, but we turned back around to have a fairly bullish candle form. However, the 0.75 level above should continue to be resistance, so we are not interested in buying this market quite yet. With this, we are waiting for some type of resistive candle in order to start selling again, as the downtrend in this market is very strong. If keep in mind that commodities in general have been hurting for some time, and of course gold is very influential on this market as well. You have to look at the gold markets and recognize that there is nothing but weakness in that particular commodity at the moment, as we continue to meander around in a very tight consolidation area at lower levels.
Asian demand for commodities certainly is in doing Australia favors either. After all, the copper and other mineral markets out there should continue to highly influence what happens with the Australian dollar, and as most of those markets look very soft, it’s hard to imagine that the Aussie dollar is going to continue to go much higher for any real length of time. If you are patient enough, we feel that this market will offer nice selling opportunities given enough time, as we should reach down towards the 0.70 level. We recognize that the 0.75 level should be resistive all the way to at least the 0.76 level, and quite frankly it’s not until we get above the red line on this chart that we would be buyers, meaning that we need to clear the 0.80 level on at least a daily close.
Ultimately, we think that we could have a bit of a quiet spell in this market though, because we are in the middle of summer which of course isn’t exactly conducive to major moves in the currency markets due to a lack of liquidity and quite frankly most traders are more focused on vacationing than trying to trade the markets.
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