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Canada May GDP mm -0.6 % vs -0.5% exp
Monthly Canadian GDP report for May 29 July 2016
Disappointing data, largest monthly decline since 2009 but focus on the bigger US GDP miss
USDCAD 1.3163
USD/CAD forecast for the week of August 1, 2016
The USD/CAD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around and slammed into the 1.30 level. This area offered a bit of support, but we are forming a bit of a shooting star. Ultimately, we have to see whether or not this level, but with this being the case it is probably best to trade this market off of the short-term chart. Oil markets have been falling, so it’s very likely that the commodity falling will work against the value of the Canadian dollar will struggle.
July 2016 Canadian RBC manufacturing PMI 51.9 vs 51.8 prior
July 2016 Canadian RBC manufacturing PMI report 2 August 2016
New orders and output was higher and domestic demand took up the slack from lower export orders, which slipped into contraction at 48.4 vs 50.2 in June.
Loonie Climbs on Stronger Oil
The USD/CAD pair was down 0.40% and trading at C$1.3014, reaching a level close to two-week lows.
Oil prices pared earlier losses on Thursday, giving a boost to the resource-linked loonie. WTI futures advanced 2.65% to $41.91 per barrel and Brent contract jumped 2.51% to 44.18 per barrel.
From the macro perspective, all the attention was on the US due to a lack of Canadian releases.
American initial jobless claims revealed that 269,000 people filed for government benefits during the week of July 30, the most in seven weeks but still near a three month low.
Later in the morning, factory orders dropped 1.5% in June, less than the anticipated fall of 1.8%, but deteriorating further from the 1.0% decrease posted in May.
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Canada change in private payroll -31.2K vs +10K estimate
Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.9 est. Last 6.8%
USD/CAD forecast for the week of August 8, 2016
The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course the week but found quite a bit of support at the 1.30 level. Ultimately, we rally enough to continue the uptrend, and the uptrend line looks very healthy. With this, it appears that the US dollar is getting ready to break out against the Canadian dollar, and quite frankly that makes sense due to the fact that the United States had a fairly strong jobs number while the Canadians actually subtracted jobs from last month. With this, and the fact that oil looks a bit soft, it makes quite a bit of sense we continue to go higher.
Canada building permits for June -5.5% vs.1.5 estimate
Prior month -2.1% (was -1.9%).
USD/CAD: Loonie Near 3-Week Highs on Surging Oil
The USD/CAD pair was down 0.71% and traded at C$1.2965 on Thursday. This was the highest level for the loonie since July 18.
Oil prices were the dominating factor driving the currency pair. Both crude oil benchmarks were trading higher as traders assessed the fresh report issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) during the US session.
The IEA revealed that it projects a rebalance of the energy markets to happen during the third quarter of 2016, after two years of excessive oversupply that has pushed prices well below the break-even point for most producers.
WTI futures surged 4.46% to trade at $43.57 per barrel, notably spiking from the one-week low of $41.10 per barrel reached earlier in the session. The Brent benchmark rose 4.47% to $46.02 per barrel.
"Commodity currencies firmed alongside the New Zealand dollar as oil prices pulled back some of the losses from Wednesday," said Jasper Lawler, an analyst at CMC Markets.
USD/CAD forecast for the week of August 15, 2016
The USD/CAD pair fell during the course of the week, breaking down just a bit. I believe that this market continues to consolidate overall though, and sooner or later the buyers will return. After all, will market still exactly look strong, but they have rallied recently, and that of course favors the Canadian dollar overall. Ultimately though, we are still very much in consolidation so I’m not looking for any type of meter move at this point in time. With that being said, prefer to trade off of the short-term charts as they offer more room.
July 2016 Canadian existing home sales -1.3% vs -0.9% prior m/m
July 2016 Canadian existing home sales report 15 August 2016