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NZD/USD: Upward movement is going to resume Current trend Last week quotes of the currency pair NZD/USD had reached four-month highs at the level of 0.8523. However on Friday the price corrected to the level of 0.8442 following the release of positive American market statistics. It became known that number of new jobs outside agricultural sector amounted to 175 thousand in February, which was above the forecast. Labour market showed positive dynamics once again, triggering the rise in demand for the American currency. Support and resistance At the moment the pair is trading near support level of 0.8455 (moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. This level seems to be the key one. In case of breakdown of this level, the price can continue to decline to 0.8425 and 0.8390. However it is more likely that upward movement will continue up to 0.8490 and 0.8.515. It should be noted that investors are waiting for the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, where the decision to raise interest rate up to 2.75% can be adopted, which will lead to strengthening of the New Zealand currency. Technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger bands are rising. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are intersecting, turning up and forming a buy signal. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions from the level of 0.8465 with profit taking at 0.8490. Short positions can be opened if the price falls below the level of 0.8443.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: Analysis and forecast Current trend The British Pound continues the decline against the USD that started on Monday. Due to lack of macro-economic statistics, the pair has lost over 100 points, as yesterday’s rapid growth has provided investors with attractive conditions to close long positions and take profit. Today, market participants are waiting for the data on industrial output in the manufacturing industry and volume industrial production in the UK in January. According to forecast, both indices will decline, which will put additional pressure on the Pound. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1.6627, 1.6706 and 1.6740. Support levels: 1.6623, 1.6590, 1.6570 and 1.6545. Trading tips On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are diverging, which confirms downtrend. MACD histogram is below the zero line and its volumes are increasing, giving a signal of further decline in exchange rate. It is likely that the price will continue to drop today. If current trend maintains, it is recommended to place short positions from the current level with the target of 1.6590. Breakdown of the level of 1.6590 will open the way to 1.6570.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
AUD/USD: Review and forecast Current trend Yesterday the price of the pair AUD/USD dropped due to poor economic performance in China. It became known that exports in China fell by 18.1% in February and amounted to 114.1 billion USD. This news led to decline in price of AUD/USD to the local lows of 0.9009. During today’s trading session Australian dollar tested the level of 0.9050. Uptrend has not been prevented even by the decrease in business sentiment index, as per National Australian Bank. Australian dollar did not fall significantly and is traded at the level of 0.9030. As Australian dollar is a commodity currency, it can be affected by the decline in the world process of oil. Attention of the market participants is drawn to Crimean conflict, which seems to continue. However, unless there are serious events directly affecting energy supplies from Russia, events in Ukraine will not provide support to oil prices. On the other hand oil prices can be affected by the end of cold season. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels: 0.9063 (yesterday’s highs) 0.9134 (highs of March 7), 0.9168 (highs of December 10). Support levels: 0.9009 (yesterday’s lows, 50.0% Fibonacci), 0.8965 (lows of March 6), 0.8890 (local lows of March 3). On the daily chart indicators give mixed signals. MACD shows a buy signal, while Stochastic give a sell signal. Trading tips Sell orders can be placed from the level of 0.9009 with short-term target of 0.8965 and long-term target of 0.8890.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: The USD cannot prevent the rise in Euro Current trend Following significant rise at the end of last week, the pair EUR/USD turned to consolidation phase. During several days the pair has been slowly going down. On Tuesday key economic indices of Germany could not support the pair since, although payment balance was positive, trade balance showed decline. US data did not confirm positive forecasts: number of vacancies and inventories in the wholesale warehouses showed negative trend. Demand for Euro decreased; however additional fundamental drivers are required in order to change uptrend into downtrend. The data on volume of industrial production in Eurozone will become known today. Experts expect that this index will increase. Support and resistance Favourable data on volume of industrial production in Eurozone will provide support and the pair will be able to soar up to the recent local highs of 1.3915. In the medium-term demand for European currency will increase and Euro will continue to grow. Next target- is key resistance level of 1.4000. The rise may reach the highs of October at the level of 1.4250. Support levels: 1.3820, 1.3800, 1.3770, 1.3700 and 1.3630. Resistance levels: 1.3900, 1.3915, 1.4000, 1.4110 and 1.4250. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to place pending buy orders from the levels of 1.3820 and 1.3800 with profit taking at the level of 1.4000 and short stop-loss at the level of 1.3750.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/JPY: Technical analysis Current trend At the end of last week the pair USD/JPY had reached local highs of 103.75 but failed to consolidate there, and at the closing session the pair fell to the level of 103.25. Until Tuesday the pair had traded in the narrow range, and then the price fell below the level of 103.00. Today, the pair USD/JPY tried to regain lost positions but was not able to overcome the line 50.0% of Fibonacci retracement. At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 102.90. Most technical indicators show the decline. Stochastic is above the middle zone, both of its lines are directed downwards, indicating further decline. Histogram and the signal line of MACD are in the negative zone; however the signal line is directed sideways, demonstrating a chance of correction. All three moving average lines are above the price chart, which is a signal of decline. Support and resistance Support levels: 102.90, 102.75, 102.60 and 102.50. The latter one is the key level of the “bears”. Resistance levels: 103.00, 103.10, 103.35 and 103.35. Trading tips The pair is likely to go down. Short positions can be placed below the level of 102.80. However, the pair may experience correction, and in this case it is recommended to place limit orders to sell at the level of 103.15.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: Strong US data can support the USD Current trend At the beginning of this week the British currency has been declining. The Pound has been losing positions against the USD. First of all this was caused by significant decrease in demand for the Pound due to the fact that British currency was overbought and also by the fact that it was under pressure from the cross-pair EUR/GBP. Significant strengthening in Euro has drawn investors’ attention to European currency, triggering outflow of investments from British currency. Pair rate dropped to the recent local lows of 1.6600. At first it seemed that this level would be broken down and the price would fall to the level of 1.6570. However, after reaching this level, the price sharply went up. At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 1.6660. Important British news is not going to be released today. On Friday British trade balance will become known. US data, which will be released today, are as follows: import price index, retail sales, inventories and labour market. Support and resistance It is expected that American news will be positive and in such case the American dollar will go up, while the pair will continue to decline. In the medium-term demand for the US currency will increase and the pair will drop to the level of 1.6540 (1.6470). Support levels: 1.6600, 1.6540 and 1.6470. Resistance levels: 1.6660, 1.6700, 1.6730 and 1.6810. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.6470.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/СHF: Franc is strengthening, while correction is approaching Current trend This week the currency pair USD/CHF continues to trade in the downtrend. Today, the price has reached the highs since October 2011 at the level of 0.8712. Even weak statistics from Switzerland and Eurozone was not able to stop the rise in Franc. In January retail sales in Switzerland fell to 0.3%, while volume of industrial output in Eurozone amounted to -0.2%. Obviously Swiss currency is supported by instability in political situation of Ukraine. Franc has always been a haven currency and any instability in the world triggers demand for this asset. Support and resistance In the near future the price will slowly decline to the levels of 0.8686 and 0.8640. Note that the pair seems to be oversold; therefore upward correction is quite possible. Probability of upward correction is also confirmed by technical indicators. Bollinger bands demonstrate divergence; however the price chart has broken the lower moving average indicating a chance of correction to the level of 0.8766. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are increasing. However between histogram and the price chart there are signs of “bearish convergence”, which shows probability of correction. Stochastic lines are in the overbought zone, they can cross soon and go upward. Important resistance levels: 0.8755, 0.8811 and 0.8873. Important support levels: 0.8686 and 0.8660. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions with profit taking at 0.8660. Long positions can be opened with the target of 0.8766, if the price goes above the level of 0.8735.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: Uptrend will continue Current trend On Thursday European currency continued to grow against the American dollar amid high demand for Euro among investors. Initial momentum to significant rise was provided by the speech of Mario Draghi last week when he expressed optimism about future of European economy. The “bulls” pushed the pair to the new local highs and EUR/USD consolidated at this level. Additional support to Euro was provided by strong data on consumer price index in France. In the afternoon favourable data on US retail sales and labour market became known, but even the decrease of initial claims for unemployment benefits could not prevent the rise in European currency. Meanwhile, it was the time for Mario Draghi’s speech, and this time it was not so positive. He noted that deflation risks are still high and ECB is preparing new monetary policy measures to avoid these risks if needed. In addition the head of ECB said that high rate of Euro is not favourable for Eurozone. The speech by Mario Draghi forced many investors to transfer money to the less risky assets. Following his speech the price of EUR/USD sharply went to the level of 1.3850. Support and resistance Despite the speech of the chairman of ECB, a chance, that uptrend will continue, is very high. Demand for Euro is still high, while American statistics cannot provide support to the USD. In the medium-term the pair will continue to move in the ascending channel; in the near future the pair may decline to the lower limit of the channel at the level of 1.3800, and then will resume growth. Next target level is 1.4130 (1.4250). Support levels: 1.3830, 1.3800, 1.3770 and 1.3700. Resistance levels: 1.3960, 1.4050, 1.4130 and 1.4250. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to place buy orders with profit taking at the level of 1.4130. In addition, it is also advisable to place pending buy orders from key resistance levels of 1.4130 (1.4250) with profit taking at the level of 1.4000 (1.3950).
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
XAG/USD: Review of forecast Current trend Quotes of XAG/USD have been growing this week. The rise in price of precious metals in general and of silver in particular was triggered by investors desire to wait out the period of instability in the world economy. At the moment the source of the instability is the fact of tension between Russia and the West over the fate of Crimean peninsula. Another fact having positive effect on the price of silver is poor indices of American economy. Recall according to the data released last week, US unemployment rate increased by 0.1; from 6.6% to 6.7%. This fact gives ground to the US Fed to leave easing measures at the current level. Yesterday, XAG/USD partly lost positions gained over a week, as geopolitical concerns around Crimean crisis have slightly weakened. Quotes of silver did not go below the level of 21.07. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 21.45 (yesterday’s lows), 21.78 (moving average with the period of 100 days), 21.17 (highs of 24.02.2014). Support levels: 21.07 (yesterday’s lows), 20.78 (moving average lines with the periods of 100 and 50 days), 20.18 (61.8% Fibonacci). On the daily chart technical indicators give mixed signals. Stochastic is directed upwards. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; however its volumes are decreasing, which give a weak sell signal. Trading tips Market is in uncertainty. Attention today shall be paid to US reporting. If the price consolidates above the level of 24.45, it makes sense to open long positions with the target of 21.78. If the price falls below the level of 21.07, it is recommended to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 20.78.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: Strong labour market statistics will give a boost to the rise in Pound Current trend At the end of last week the pair GBP/USD significantly dropped, reaching key support level of 1.6600; however this level was not broken down. Later the quotes slightly went up to the level of 1.6660. Weakening in the British currency was caused by the decrease in investors’ interest to the Pound and unfavourable British statistics. Decline in demand was also caused by the fact that the Pound is overbought. Strong impetus is required to boost the rise in Pound, such as the increase in interest rates or reduction in program of troubled assets purchase. Today volatility in the market is unlikely, as there will not be any important British news. While the following US economic statistics will become known: industrial output for February and capacity utilization, as well as business activity index in industrial sector of New-York for March. On Tuesday the most important event will be the speech of Mark Carney, who will make a statement on future monetary policy of the Bank of England. Note also that US Fed decisions on interest rates and volume of quantitative easing program will be known this week. There is no doubt that the key interest rate will be left at the previous level, but the question is whether US Fed will continue to reduce volume of program or not. Support and resistance Meanwhile the Pound does not have either strength or support for further growth, at the same time the American dollar is not strong enough to draw the pair down. British labour market statistics will become known this week, according to forecast it is going to be positive. Strong British statistics can provide support to the Pound and the pair will go up to the local highs. In the medium-term the Pound is likely to continue growth amid strong macro-economic data. It is possible that the key resistance level of 1.6810 will be broken down and the pair will soar up to 1.6875 (1.6900). Support levels: 1.6600, 1.6570 and 1.6470. Resistance levels: 1.6600, 1.6700, 1.6770, 1.6810, 1.6875 and 1.6900. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to place pending buy orders above the level of 1.6600 with profit taking at 1.6810 (1.6875).
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies