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USD/JPY: analysis and forecast Current trend Last week the pair was under strong pressure caused by weakening in the USD. Fundamental data on the housing market and business activity in the USA was below expectations and the pair USD/JPY collapsed to the level of 101.70, finishing trading week slightly above the level of 102.20. In addition a meeting of the Bank of Japan was held last week, where it was announced that Japanese economy is gradually recovering due to aggressive monetary policy. It is likely that Regulator will continue stimulus programs and the Yen will continue to decline. Today’s economic calendar does not contain important releases; therefore the pair USD/JPY will trade in the sideways channel. Some key economic US data is scheduled for the release this week, including GDP and interest rate by the US Fed, which may affect further movement in the pair. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels are 102.50, 102.75 and 103.00; the latter one coincides with Fibonacci line 61.8% and is the main target of the bulls. Support levels: 102.15, 101.90 and 101.65. Trading tips It is likely that the pair will continue to trade in the sideways channel until the meeting of the US Fed on Wednesday. Limit orders to buy are recommended at the level of 101.65.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend On Monday Unified European currency traded near the moving average with the period 200 in the range of 25-30 points. Positive macro-economic news from Germany showing that business sentiment index Ifo had grown to 110.6 points, was not able to support the “bulls”. Most investors do not wish to take unnecessary risk opening trading positions in advance of the US Fed meeting, where a decision to further reduce quantitative easing program may be adopted. If volumes of bonds purchase are reduced again, positions of the American currency will strengthen. It is assumed that the US fed is going to cut incentive program by 10 billion USD after each meeting. Special attention today shall be paid to retail sales in Germany: according to preliminary estimates this index shall grow, which will support Euro. However, it significant growth is not expected until the US Fed meeting. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is the local highs of 1.3716. Support level is the lower limit of the sideways channel at 1.3652. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.3652 with stop-loss around 1.3682 and a target of 1.3555.
Dmitry Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Yesterday, preliminary estimates of the British GDP became known. Following positive fundamental data of last week, preliminary GDP in the UK disappointed investors. The pair GBP/USD fell to the level of 1.6540, however late afternoon the pair regained from losses. Nevertheless, preliminary GDP confirms recovery process in the national economy. According to forecast, GDP growth on annual basis will amount to 2.8%. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels are 1.6600, 1.6620, 1.6650 and 1.6670; the latter one is the local highs and the main target of the “bulls.” Support levels: 1.6575 and 1.6560. Trading tips Short positions are recommended below the level of 1.6540 with the target of 1.6480. Long positions can be placed if the price exceeds the level of 1.6620.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/CAD: the pair will continue to grow Current trend The pair continues to trade in the “bullish” channel. Throughout the whole month the Canadian dollar has been declining in price against its American counterpart. Outcome of yesterday’s meeting of the US Fed had been expected and incorporated in the price; however, despite this fact, the American dollar went up. The pair reached the highs, which had been last recorded in summer 2009 and stopped near resistance level of 1.1200. In the near future the pair may experience correction to the level of 1.1120; however, the pair has all chances for the further growth. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels 1.1200. Support levels are 1.1160, 1.1120, 1.1080 and 1.1030. Trading tips It is likely that the pair will decline slightly but after that will resume growth. Limit orders to buy can be placed at the level of 1.1120. Long positions are recommended after consolidation above the level of 1.1200.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD EUR/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming Dead Cross reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. Under the pressure of the Cross the pair has broken down the cloud and is trying to consolidate below it. The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud at 1.3603. One of the previous minimums of the Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.3537.
EUR/USD, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart from below, current cloud is ascending. The pair is still trading within the cloud; its lower border is a strong support level (1.3563). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1.3623).
Key levels Support levels: 1.3563, 1.3537. Resistance levels: 1.3603, 1.3623. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a signal to sell, however, on the daily chart the price is still within the cloud. The targets for the short positions are around 1.3563. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Brent: general review Current trend Crude oil Brent continues to decline amid the increase of the oil inventories in the USA. Last week stock of distillate fell by 4.6 million barrels, while oil reserves rose by 6.4 million barrels, exceeding forecast and putting pressure on the price of “black gold”. According to experts, demand for distillate was caused by cold snap in the USA. The increase in production by 308 thousand barrels per day was not able to adjust demand. Another important factor was the decision of the US Fed to reduce again the amount of securities purchase by 10 billion USD. Chinese index of industrial production, which fell by 0.1% reaching the level of 49.5 points, did not add optimism, being an indicator of slowdown in manufacturing growth. If Chinese indices continue to decline, the price of energy supplies may sharply decline. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is the upper limit of the channel at the level of 108.34. Support level is the local lows of 106.93. Trading tips It is advisable to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 108.34 with stop-loss at 108.00 and a target of 109.65.
Dmitry Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: development of downtrend Current trend On Thursday investors responded to another reduction in volume of quantitative easing program. The American dollar has strengthened and the pair GBP/USD has lost over 100 points in a few hours and after that started to consolidate. The pair hardly responded to the data on the US GDP and initial applications for unemployment benefits. GDP in Q4 last year confirmed the forecast of 3.2%. Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits has risen, amounting to 348 thousand. Today’s attention should be focused on the US indices of personal expenses and income and consumer sentiment index. If the data is positive, the pair may break down support level of 1.6450 and reach the level of 1.6320. Although the “bulls” do not want to lose positions, the American currency has stronger impetus in order to continue rapid growth. Curtailing of QE3 program continues, economic growth pace is accelerating, unemployment rate is going down. In the medium-term decline in the pair GBP/USD will with the target of 1.6100. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.6450, 1.6320, 1.6200, 1.6100 and 1.5920. Resistance levels: 1.6540, 1.6600 and 1.6660. Trading tips It is recommended to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.6200.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have merged within the cloud. Chinkou Span line is following the price chart, current cloud is descending. The downward impetus wasn’t enough and the price has returned within the cloud’s borders, which are support (0.8748) and resistance (0.8796) levels now.
AUD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above under the cloud, indicating new wave of downward trend. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. After small fall the pair has been corrected to the Tenkan-sen line. Kijun-sen line becomes the closest resistance level at 0.8872. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8406..
Key levels Support levels: 0.8748, 0.8406. Resistance levels: 0.8796, 0.8872. Trading tips Further movement of the price will be determined by the breakdown of one of the levels: 0.8748 or 0.8796.Pending buy orders can be placed with targets at 0.8815. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend The pair EUR/USD is still under pressure from the bears. Strong USD and the lack of strong macro-economic data from Eurozone do not give the pair EUR/USD a chance to change trend. Last week retail sales in Germany fell by 2.5% on monthly basis. Economists had expected that this index would remain at the previous level. In addition, inflation rate in Eurozone declined by 0.1% to the level of 0.7%, reaching the lows of many years. However, the key level of 2.0% set by ECB is still far away. Sellers have already tested support level of 1.3475 today, and it is likely that this level will be broken down in the near future. Support and resistance First support level is 1.3475. Next support levels are 1.3440 and 1.3395. Resistance levels are the local highs of 1.3515, 1.3555 and 1.3600. Trading tips On the four-hour chart technical indicators show further decline in rate. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are increasing. Bollinger bands are directed downwards, forming a sell signal. If current trend maintains, it is recommended to open sell positions with the targets of 1.3440 and 1.3395.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD GBP/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed steeply down. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is still falling. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level (1.6348). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.6253.
GBP/USD, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have merged above the cloud, indicating the reversal of the trend. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current cloud is still ascending. The pair has entered the cloud, borders of which are support (1.6216) and resistance (1.6361) levels.
Key levels Support levels: 1.6253, 1.6216. Resistance levels: 1.6348, 1.6361. Trading tips On the both charts we can see the continuation of the downward trend. The targets for the sell positions are 1.6253 and 1.6216. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies