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EUR/USD: long-term downward correction Current trend Following sharp decline in the pair related to the reduction of the US QE3 program, European currency started slowly win back positions against the USD. Today favourable data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector of France had added support to the pair; however after the release of poor data from Germany the pair went down again. At the moment the pair GBP/USD is trading at the level of 1.3800. In the afternoon, monthly report of Bundesbank will be made public, as well as US business activity index in the manufacturing sector. Forecast of this index is negative. Support and resistance Weak EU statistics along with decreasing demand for risky assets will put huge pressure on the pair EUR/USD. Following significant decline the pair is expected to correct slightly to the key resistance level and local highs of 1.3830. After that the pair will continue to go down, aiming to reach the level of 1.3650. In the medium-term, the pair will decline to the level of 1.3560. Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3650, 1.3560 and 1.3480. Resistance levels: 1.3830, 1.3950, 1.4000 and 1.4130. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.3650. Pending buy orders can be placed from the key support level of 1.3560 with profit taking at the level of 1.4000.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 24-28 March 2014
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex
GBP/USD: will the pair be able to break out psychologically important level? Current trend Downtrend prevailed during last week. Continuation of phasing out of QE3 in the USA provided additional support to the USD and increased investors’ interest to the American currency. The pair GBP/USD lost over 200 points and consolidated at the key support level of 1.6470. Due to lack of British and USA news yesterday, the pair traded in the narrow channel. The level of 1.6470 is psychologically important mark and breakout of this level will trigger long-0term decline in the pair. British indices of retail, purchasing, consumer and distributing prices will become known today, as well as US index of consumer confidence and the data on construction sector. All forecasts are negative. Support and resistance If the “bulls” manage to drag the pair below support level of 1.6470, decline will continue up to the levels of 1.6250, 1.6100 and 1.5900. Alternative scenario: rebound from the level of 1.6470 and the rise in the ascending channel with the target of 1.6910-1.7000. Support levels: 1.6470, 1.6250, 1.6100 and 1.5900. Resistance levels: 1.6580, 1.6830, 1.6910 and 1.7000. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.6600 and short stop-loss. It is also advisable to place sell orders below the level of 1.6450 with profit taking at the level of 1.6250.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD USD/CAD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. After strong rise the pair has been corrected under Tenkan-sen line, which becomes a resistance level at 1.1215. Support level is the upper border of the cloud at 1.1086.
USD/CAD, D1 At the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, indicating new wave of upward movement. However, both red and blue lines are horizontal, indicating consolidation phase. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is still ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (1.1152). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.1243.
Key levels Support levels: 1.1086, 1.1152. Resistance levels: 1.1215, 1.1243. Trading tips On the four-hour chart short positions with targets at 1.1086 can be opened as soon as Tenkan-sen crosses Kijun-sen or Chinkou Span crosses the price chart. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: USD is expected to strengthen Current trend Yesterday morning European currency fell against the USD amid poor macro-economic German data. Business sentiment index fell below the forecast and the pair reached support level of 1.3750. In the mid-day Euro won back positions due to weakening in American dollar caused by negative data from construction sector. The speech of the chairman of ECB did not help pair to rise above the level of 1.3830. Today, consumer confidence index of Germany became known. The index remained unchanged at the level of 8.5 points. Volume of orders of durable goods in the USA will be released today too. The main event of tomorrow is the final release of US GDP. If positive forecast is justified, the USD will receive significant support and the pair will go down. Support and resistance The nearest target of the downtrend is the key support level and the highs of October at 1.3650. It is likely that decline will continue to the level of 1.3560, which is important psychological level. Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3650, 1.3560 and 1.3480. Resistance levels: 1.3830, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4120. Trading tips It is recommended to place short positions with take profit at the level of 1.3650 and stop-loss at 1.3870.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
NZD/USD: ascending movement will continue Current trend Since the beginning of this week the currency pair NZD/USD has traded in the uptrend, slowly regaining from losses, caused by the US Fed decision to reduce bond purchase program. Negative US statistics puts pressure on the American dollar. Business activity index in the US manufacturing sector fell below the forecast, estimated by Markit and Richmond fell, reaching 55.5 and 7 points respectively. Poor results were also demonstrated by the housing market. Sales of new houses fell below the level of January, amounting to 440 thousand. Volume of orders for durable products in the USA for February will become known today. According to forecast this index can be the best since November last year, reaching the level of 1.1%, which will provide support to the American currency. Support and resistance In the near future the price will continue to go up to the levels of 0.8610 and 0.8640. However, correction, (which is not excluded, due to fundamental data), can reach the levels of 0.8580 and 0.8560 (middle moving average of Bollinger bands indicator). Technical indicators confirm a chance of ascending movement. Bollinger bands demonstrate divergence, confirming uptrend; however the price chart has broken down the upper moving average, which suggests correction. MACD histogram has moved to the positive zone, forming a buy signal. Stochastic lines have entered overbought zone, demonstrating a similar signal. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to place long positions from the current price level with take profit at 0.8640. Short positions can be opened if the price falls to the level of 0.8580.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: investors anticipate the rise of USD after publication of the US GDP Current trend On Wednesday the British currency significantly rose against the USD. The pair had pushed off from the lower limit of the ascending channel and reached the level of 1.6600. Today a lot of important British and US news will become known, including volume of retail sales for February in the UK and GDP for Q4 and number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the USA. It is worth noting that according to expectations US GDP will exceed current level of 0.3%. If this index confirms this forecast, the USD will get strong support. In case of strong US data the pair GBP/USD will fall to the local lows of 1.6470. Breakout of the key support level of 1.6470 is unlikely. The pair will probably fall to the local lows and after that will experience correction with the target of 1.6900. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.6470, 1.6250, 1.6100 and 1.5900. Resistance levels: 1.6580, 1.6660, 1,6830 and 1.6900. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions with take profit at the level of 1.6900. Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.6470.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Brent: analysis and forecast Current trend Crude oil Brent has exceeded the upper limit of the trading channel on H4 chart. The rise in the instrument can continue but situation in the oil market will depend on geopolitical situation. On the one hand oil is supported by situation in Libya, where oil production in one of the largest deposits has been suspended, which can reduce daily oil production to 0.15 million barrels. On the other hand, the USA plans to negotiate with Saudi Arabia about the increase of oil production. Therefore, American authorities want to bring down oil prices and undermine economy of Russia. According to economists Saudi Arabia has about 25% of the world oil reserves and can influence on pricing. It is not clear yet if Americans manage to cut down oil price but the fact of such negotiations can destabilize oil market. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is the moving average with the period of 200 (108.50). Support level is the bottom limit of the trading channel (105.36). Trading tips It is advisable to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 107.21 with stop-loss at 107.00 and a target of 108.38.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: Review and forecast Current trend Euro continues to fall in price. On Thursday pressure on the pair was caused by US statistics. It became known that number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 311 thousand, which is above the forecast. Growth of US GDP in Q4 amounted to 2.6%. This index was by 0.1% lower than expected; however, it does not decrease interest of market participants to the USD. Today investors will be focused on European macro-statistics, the most important of which will be consumer confidence index and IFO in Eurozone and consumer price in Germany In the afternoon US statistics will be released. Investors are waiting for the data on personal expenses for February. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.3705, 1.3670 and 1.3610. Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3795 and 1.3830. On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm that downward movement may continue. MACD histogram is in the sale area and its volumes are increasing. Trading tips If current downtrend continues, it is recommended to open sell positions after breakout of the level of 1.3705 with the targets of 1.3670 and 1.3610.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
AUD/USD: Review of forecast Current trend The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the USD. The pair has already reached four-month highs. The “bulls” had tested the level of 0.9295 but the pair failed to consolidate above this level , and started correction. The Australian dollar was supported by the statement of the chairman of Australian Reserve Bank Glenn Stevens, who said that Australian economy shall look for new ways of development, which will not depend on mining industry. Investors interpreted this news as a positive signal and started to buy Australian currency. Note that important news releases, which can affect the rate of AUD/USD, are not scheduled for today. Support and resistance On the four-hour chart technical indicators show continuation of the ascending movement. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are increasing, forming a buy signal. Resistance levels: 0.9295, 0.9345, 0.9395 and 0.9440. Support levels: 0.9245, 0.9210 and 0.9150. Trading tips If current ascending trend continues, it is recommended to open buy positions from the current price level with the nearest target of 0.9295. Breakout of the level of 0.9295 will open the way to 0.9345.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies