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Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 24-28 Feb
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex
EUR/USD: Euro will continue to strengthen Current trend The pair EUR/USD is still in the stage of consolidation, as lack of important European macro-economic data as well weakness of the USD does not add dynamics to the pair. Yesterday’s favourable data on German business activity index IFO did not provide support to the pair. EUR/USD is traded in the range of 1.3770-1.3700. German GDP in Q4, which became known today, has confirmed of 0.4%, therefore this fact did not affect the pair. U.S. consumer confidence index will become known today, the forecast for it is negative. Quiet movement of the pair can be interrupted only by European news, which is going to be released on Friday: Retail sales in Germany and consumer price index in EU. Support and resistance Technical indicators show that the pair is traded in the ascending channel and in the near future the pair can go down to the bottom limit of the range to support level of 1.3600. In future the pair will continue to grow. Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3600 and 1.3550. Resistance levels: 1.3770, 1.3800, 1.3830 and 1.3900. Trading tips It is recommended to place pending long positions from the level of 1.3610 with profit taking of 1.3800. Pending orders to buy above key resistance level of 1.3850, in view of possibility of upward breakdown and further ascending movement.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Brent: review Current trend Yesterday Brent rate slightly rose due to predictions of the increase in oil products consumption in the developed countries. At the recent meeting of Finance Ministers of the Big 20, a plan to increase GDP and create million of jobs in the Commonwealth countries has been announced. Investors took this news as a positive signal for the oil market. Brent rose to the level of 110.70; however failed to consolidate above this level. Today, Brent is going down due to technical correction. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 110.70 and 111.70. Support levels: 109.67, 109.30 and 108.90. Trading tips On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are horizontal, demonstrating that market is quiet. MACD histogram is above the zero line; however its volumes are decreasing, showing “bearish” sentiment in the market. If downward dynamics in the market continues, it is recommended to open sell positions with the target of 109.67. Breakdown of the level of 109.67 will open for Brent the way to the level of 109.30.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: The Pound is going to retest the highs of 1.6810 Current trend Yesterday the pair traded with low volatility due to lack of important economic news. The pair had tested important resistance level of 1.6720, pushed off from this level and went down. Now the pair GBP/USD is trading in the narrow range of 1.6660-1.6690. The USD continues to lose attractiveness among investors following the release of negative statistics on consumer confidence index in the USA, which fell to 78.1 points, which is below the previous value. Today British revised GDP for Q4 last year will become known. In addition to GDP, a speech of a member of Monetary Policy Committee, B. Broadbent will be also of interest. U.S. data on sales of new houses and oil inventories will be released as well. Support and resistance It is expected that British currency may rise up to the recent highs of 1.6810; nevertheless, in order to reach this level, strong catalyst is be required, such as acceleration of economic growth rate in the country. Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6540 and 1.6470. Resistance levels: 1.6730, 1.6810 and 1.6900. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions from the key resistance level and local highs of 1.6800 and profit taking at the level of 1.6660 and a short-stop-loss.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
AUD/USD: general review Current trend Today, at the opening of the Asian session, exchange rate of AUD/USD slightly went down. The AUD had decline to the level of 0.8968against the USD; however in the afternoon it quickly regained lost positions and reached yesterday’s highs. In the near future we do not expect any fundamental news, which can affect exchange rate of AUD. In order to analyze dynamics of movement in the pair AUD/USD, let’s review technical charts. On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed sideways, indicating uncertainty in the market. MACD histogram is above the zero line; however its volumes are decreasing. It is likely that the pair will continue to decline slowly up to the level of 0.8930. Support and resistance The first resistance level is 0.9040 (yesterday’s highs). Next strong resistance level is the highs of January - 0.9080. Support levels are 0.8990 and 0.8968. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions with the nearest target of 0.8968. Breakdown of the level of 0.8968 will open the way to the level of 0.8930.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
XAU/USD: Technical analysis XAU/USD, H4 The pair has been trading within an ascending channel since the beginning of the year. On Wednesday XAU/USD has hit four-month highs at 1345.64, then been corrected and now is trading around support level of 1327.49. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, the price can go up to the levels of 1333.65 and 1345.64 (middle and upper MAs of the indicator). Stochastic lines have crossed and turned up, giving a signal to buy. However, MACD histogram is going to enter negative zone creating sell signal. Moreover, MACD indicator forms a divergence with the price chart, which a clear sign of strong fall.
XAU/USD, D1 On the daily chart Bollinger bands are also directed upwards, the price chart rebounded off the upper line and is going down to the levels of 1310.26 и 1289.61. MACD histogram is in positive zone, but crosses signal line from above, forming sell signal. Stochastic lines have left the overbought zone, giving the same signal. Moreover, Stochastic lines form a divergence with the price chat confirming downward correction.
Key levels Support levels: 1327.49, 1310.26, 1289.61, 1255.59. Resistance levels: 1345.64, 1366.14, 1389.22. Trading tips We expect the price to go up a little, but then turn down. Short-term buy trades can be opened below 1345.64; however, sell positions are more preferable. Short positions with targets at 1289.61 can be opened at 1318.00. Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend Today, Unified European currency continues to decline. Despite positive German statistics Euro is still under pressure. German budget in 2013 had a surplus of 300 billion Euro; at the same time GDP rose by 0.4% in Q4 last year. Consumer confidence index has been going up, indicating economic growth of the country. In February, this index has approached the level of 8.5 points, which is the highest level since January 2007. If economic data of France, Italy and other European countries will be also positive, Euro will continue to grow in the long-term. Support and resistance The pair EUR/USD has reached the bottom limit of the trading channel (1.3659). If this level is broken down, next support level will be at the level of 1.3515. The nearest resistance level is the upper limit of the trading channel (1.3766). Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.3659 with stop-loss near 1.3680 and the target of 1.3515.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD NZD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair continues to rise. Tenkan-sen line is the closest support (0.8353) level. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.8516.
NZD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. After small correction the pair returned to the upward movement Tenkan-sen line is the closest support (0.8328) level. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.8512.
Key levels Support levels: 0.8353, 0.8328. Resistance levels: 0.8516, 0.8512. Trading tips On the both charts Ichimoku lines indicate the continuation of the upward trend. Targets for the long positions are 0.8516 and 0.8512. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: US GDP vs. speech by Mark Carney? Current trend Yesterday morning the pair went up reaching the level of 1.6620. However, following the release of negative statistics from US labour market the pair GBP/USD returned to the previous level of 1.6700. This morning the pair was supported by positive data on the UK housing price index: this index amounted to 9.4%, exceeding the forecast of 9.0%.This fact has been a strong catalyst enabling rapid rise in the pair. Another important event will be a speech of the head of the Bank of England, Ben Bernanke today. He will evaluate economic situation in Great Britain. Acceleration of economic growth may lead to changes in the monetary policy. In addition, some American news will also become known, such as: revised GDP, consumer sentiment index and index of sentiment of purchasing managers. According to preliminary data economic growth rate in the USA is slowing down; GDP for Q4 is going to be revised from 3.2% to 2.6% Positive assessment of British economic situation by Mark Carney and negative revision of the US GDP have led to the rise in the pair up to the recent local highs of 1.6810. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.6660, 1.6600, 1.6540 and 1.6470. Resistance levels: 1.6730, 1.6810 and 1.6900. Trading tips It is advisable to place pending long positions to buy above the level of 1.6810 with profit taking at the level of 1.7000. Pending sell orders can be placed from the local highs of 1.6800 with profit taking from the local highs with profit taking at the level of 1.6600 and a short stop-loss.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: US economic growth rate has slowed down Current trend Last Friday European currency significantly strengthened against the USD due to positive European statistics. Inflation rate in February remained at the previous level, unemployment rate was stable and consumer price index rose only by one tenth percentage. Nevertheless, the pair was supported not only these indices but mostly by rapid rise in retail sale in Germany in January (2.5% against forecast of 1.2%). The pair EUR/USD has soared up to the local highs of 1.3820, later the pair rolled back to 1.3770 and consolidated at this level. High volatility is not expected today due to lack of important macro-statistics from EU. American news on private expenditures, business activity index and expenses on construction will be worth of paying attention. Support and resistance Following rapid growth the pair shifted to the phase of correction. However, if strong catalyst provides support to the pair, Euro can break down key resistance level of 1.3820. Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3630 and 1.3600. Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3820, 1.3900 and 1.4000. Trading tips It is advisable to place pending orders to buy from support level of 1.3700 with profit taking at the level of 1.3820. Buy stop orders can be placed at the level of 1.3850 with profit taking at 1.4000.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies