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USD/JPY: technical analysis Current trend At the beginning of last week the pair had reached local highs of 100.70 and despite all bears’ attempts, this level prevented decline in price. After that the pair started to go up and by the end of last week it reached the level of 102.50. At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 102.35. The “bulls” will probably try to break down resistance level of 102.50. Technical indicators give conflicting signals: Stochastic lines are directed upwards, while MACD histogram is moving along the zero line with the minimum volumes. Support and resistance Support levels are 102.15 and 101.90; the latter one coincides with the Fibonacci line 23.6% and is the main target of the “bears”. The nearest resistance level is 102.50, which is the key level, obstructing further growth and preventing the rise in pair tonew highs. This level will be followed by 102.75, 102.90 and 103.00. Trading tips The pair is likely to trade in the sideways channel for some time. Long positions are recommended after consolidation of the price above the level of 102.55. Pending orders “Buy Limit” can be placed at the level of 101.90.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: downtrend will continue Current trend On Monday, European currency continued to rise against the USD. The pair slowly rose all day despite the decrease in volume of industrial output in France. Additional support to the pair was provided by the rise in investor confidence index in Eurozone: the index was far above negative forecast of 10.3 points, reaching the level of 13.3 points. Due to this fact EUR/USD rose to 1.3670. European macro-economic statistics is not scheduled for release today; while American data on inventories at wholesale warehouses, number of vacancies and level of labour flow will become known. However, the key event will take place on Thursday, when Janet Yellen will make semi-annual report on monetary policy. Support and resistance Volatility is not expected to be high today because of lack of fundamental news. The pair has actually reached key support level of 1.3700 (highs of February 2013). In future EUR/USD will rise slightly and after that the pair will push off from resistance level of 1.3700 and go down to the local lows of 1.3470 and 1.3400. Support levels: 1.3550, 1.3470, 1.3400 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830. Trading tips It is advisable to place sell orders with profit taking at the levels of 1.3470-1.3400.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
XAU/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Yesterday gold has reached new local highs of 1293.60. The rise in gold was triggered by the speech of a new head of the US Fed Janet Yellen, who said that Federal Reserve will adhere to the current policy gradually reducing volume of asset purchase. Investors expected more radical decisions. At the moment investors are closing short positions for the instrument XAU/USD; however if US macro-economic statistics continues to show positive dynamics, and situation in the US labour market improves, it will bring negative sentiments to the gold market again. Support and resistance Support levels are 1285.00, 1278.00 and 1270.00; the latter one coincides with Fibonacci line 23.6%. The nearest resistance level is 1293.60, which is the main target of the “bulls.” Breakdown of this level will open new highs for the bulls. Trading tips At the moment downward correction is likely to take place. It is recommended to place limit orders to sell at the level of 1293.00 with the target of 1270.00. Short positions can be opened below the level of 1255.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: growth of British economy will trigger the rise in inflation Current trend Because of lack of important UK and US news releases yesterday the rise in the pair GBP/USD shifted to the sideways correction and the price failed to go above the local highs of 1.6490. Now the British currency is strengthening’ however accelerated growth rate of economic growth in Britain can cause the rise in inflation, which will have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the Pound. On the other hand, tightening of the monetary policy can provide additional support to the national currency Therefore, investors’ attention today will be focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of England and the release on quarterly inflation report on the UK. American congressmen without problems approved the rise in the ceiling of the national debt and the speech of the new leader of the US Fed did not affected USD rate. This week the data on retail sales and industrial output and forecast for these indicators is not good. Support and resistance If inflationary pressure does not drop the Pound, the pair GBP/USD is likely to go up to 1.6600. Support levels: 1.6400, 1.6250, 1.6170 and 1.6100 Resistance levels: 1.6570, 1.6540, 1.6600 and 1.6660. Trading tips It is recommended to place pending orders to buy above the level of 1.6510 with profit taking at the level of 1.6650.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend Yesterday, Unified European currency has lost 117 points. Euro was under pressure from Washington’s news. House of Representatives of the US Congress managed to resolve the issue of public debt, which enabled to avoid default in the country. The decision to raise the ceiling of public debt supported the USD and Euro significantly weakened. Another fact, which had a negative impact on Euro was the statement of the head of St. Louis FRB about possibility of termination of the quantitative easing programs this year. In case economic growth in the USA will reach 3%, and unemployment rate will be 6%, it will give a chance to the US Fed to terminate QE3 program without much concerns. However, if low interest rates will be maintained for a long time, it may trigger economic “bubbles” in the markets. Levels of support and resistance Important support level for Euro is the bottom limit of the trading channel (1.3498). If the “bears” manage to overcome this level, the pair EUR/USD will fall to 1.3433. The nearest resistance level is the upper limit of the trading channel (1.3682). Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.3500 with protective orders at 1.3530 and a target of 1.3420.
Dmitry Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Brent: US stats will affect oil course Current trend Yesterday crude oil Brent dropped down due to the release of Crude Oil Inventories in USA. The volume of the oil supplies exceeded the forecasts and reached the level of 3.3 billion barrels. Today investors are waiting for the US Retail Sales publication. The stats are expected to be negative, which can affect the course of Brent. Support and resistance The price of Brent is following the lower MA of Bollinger Bands indicator. However the price chart has broken down the lower line, which can lead to upward correction to the level of 108.20. МАСD histogram is going to enter negative zone and give a signal to sell. Further fall is most probable, the price will go down to the levels of 107.30 and 106.90. Resistance levels: 108.20, 108.45 and 108.74. Support levels: 107.30, 106.90. Trading tips It is recommended to open short trades at current price with targets around 107.30.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: general analysis Current trend The Pound has renewed this year highs at 1.6670 and is trading around 1.6695. The pair is supported by the economic growth of Great Britain and weak stats on Retail Sales in USA. Last release of US fundamental data questioned further curtailment of QE3 program. Increase of unemployment claims by 9000 has also weakened American Dollar. Today investors are waiting for the US Industrial Production release. The index is expected to reach the level of 79.3% and send GBP/USD down. Support and resistance The pair has broken through the upper border of the trading channel on the four-hour chart as well as on the daily chart. If Pound consolidates at 1.6700, the pair will rise. The closest resistance level is 1.6750. Support level is the upper border of the channel at 1.6670. Trading tips Long trades should be opened above 1.6750 with stop-losses at 1.6700 and targets at 1.6820.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD NZD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are directed upwars. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. Tenkan-sen line is the closest support (0.8338) level. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.8410.
NZD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the blue line remains horizontal, while the red one is directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is still descending. The pair has broken through the cloud and is still rising. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud at 0.8249. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.8513.
Key levels Support levels: 0.8338, 0.8249. Resistance levels: 0.8410, 0.8513. Trading tips On the both charts we can see a continuation of the upward movement. Targets for the long positions are 0.8410 and 0.8513. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: next target of the “bulls” is the level of 1.3830 Current trend It is expected that last Friday European currency would grow against the USD; however ascending movement slowed down and the pair EUR/USD shifted to the stage of consolidation. All day the pair traded below the key resistance level of 1.3700. New trading week started with the rise in Euro. However, following the increase in bear’s stop-losses, the pair reversed and went down. Volatility is not expected to be high today, as America celebrates President Day; not many European news are scheduled for today either. The pair is likely to go back to 1.3630. This week investors will be guided by the data on business activity index in EU and US labor marker statistics. In the medium-term Euro will grow against the USD up to the key resistance level and local highs of 1.3830. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3470 and 1.3400. Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830. Trading tips It is advisable to place pending buy orders above resistance level of 1.3700 with a target of 1.3800-1.3830.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 17-21.02.2014
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex