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Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 20-24 Jan 2014
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex
GBP/USD: UK labour market statistics will support to the pair Current trend The pair GBP/USD continues to trade in the narrow range near important resistance level of 1.6470. It was a public holiday in the USA yesterday; there was no UK news coverage either. Today, economic calendar is still uneventful and the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel. Tomorrow attention shall be paid to the UK labour market statistics and the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England. Support and resistance /b] Despite low volatility, the pair may go down to the level of 1.6350 today. Tomorrow the pair may get significant support from macro-economic statistics and soar up to strong local highs of 1.6540 and 1.6600. If the data fails to meet forecast, the USD will start to slowly regain positions and the pair may fall to the level of 1.6200. Support levels: 1.6320, 1.6200, 1.6100 and 1.5920. Resistance levels: 1.6470, 1.6540 and 1.6600. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions with take profit at the level of 1.6200. Pending orders to sell can be placed from the level of 1.6540 in view of upward correction.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
XAG/USD: technical analysis Current trend Last week silver fell to the level of 20.00. Nevertheless, support level was strong enough to prevent further decline of silver. Last Friday the “bulls” managed to regain positions. At the moment the pair is trading above the level of 20.20. Moving average lines show further rise. The signal line and histogram of MACD are in the positive zone; however the signal line is ready to leave the zone of histogram and form a sell signal. Support and resistance Support levels are 20.20, 20.00, 19.80 and 19.50. The main target of the “bears is 20.00. Resistance levels: 20.40 and 20.50. Trading tips Probably in the near future the pair will again try to break down support level of 20.00, which is unlikely to be overcome. Limit order to buy can be placed above the level of 20.50.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
Brent: general analysis Current trend Yesterday, the price of crude oil Brent has reached the level of 107.94 USD per barrel. Positive dynamics of oil quotes was triggered by the rise in the global demand for black gold. According to International Energy Agency, given the current pace of the world economy recovery, demand for oil may increase by 1.3 million barrels per day this year. In 2013 oil consumption amounted to 91.2 million barrels a day; in 2012-90 million barrels a day. In addition, IMF issued a report saying that economic growth rate of the world economy will rise by 3.7% this year. Such forecast has become an additional incentive of the rise in oil price. Support and resistance Resistance levels are 107.00, 107.94 (yesterday’s highs) and 108.80 (Fibonacci retracement 50%). Support levels are the local lows of 106.20, 105.79 and 105.41. Trading tips It is advisable to open buy positions after breakdown of the level of 107.20 with the targets of 107.94 and 108.80. Pending orders to sell can be placed below the level of 106.70 with the targets of 106.20 and 105.80.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Yesterday the pair EUR/USD has been trading within a sideways channel. At the beginning of the day the course went down due to the negative stats from ZEW. German Sentiment index dropped to the level of 61.7 points. Then the pair has been corrected and is now trading around middle MA of Bollinger Bands indicator (1.3550). Waiting for the next FOMC meeting market players won’t open new trades, so the pair won’t probably leave the channel (1.3580-1.3505). Support and resistance The breakthrough of the 1.3550 level will allow the pair to go up to the level of 1.3580. If Bearish trend prevails, the price will go down to the levels of 1.3525 and 1.3505. Technical indicators confirm the possibility of the fall. MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and turned down. Trading tips It is recommended to open short trades with targets at 1.3505. Pending buy orders can be placed above 1.3550 with take-profits at 1.3580.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
NZD/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend The pair NZD/USD has been falling since Wednesday, being under pressure of China manufacturing PMI stats. The indicator has dropped to 49.6 points, first fall in 6 month, and the fall under the level of 50 points indicates the slowdown of economic growth. Besides, market players are waiting for the US FOMC meeting next week, when a new reduction of assets purchase may be announced. Support and resistance From the technical point of view the price has crossed middle MA of Bollinger Bands indicator, forming a signal to sell. The pair can go down to the support levels of 0.8250, 0.8235 and even 0.8215. Other indicators confirm the possibility of the fall. MACD histogram has crossed the zero line from above, Stochastic lines have entered overbought zone. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions with targets at 0.8235. At the same level pending buy orders can be placed prior to the upward correction.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: general analysis Current trend Yesterday, the British currency considerable consolidated positions against the American dollar, reaching the new local highs following the release of statistics on the UK labour market. It became known that unemployment rate was the lowest over the five years reaching the level of 7.1%. Unemployment rate has approached to the target, set by the Bank of England, after which British regulator promised to raise interest rates. Support and resistance In case of breakout of the local highs of 1.6618, the pair will go up to the next resistance level of 1.6650. Support level will be Fibonacci retracement of 23.6% (1.6545), 38.2% (1.6500) and 50% (1.6462). Trading tips MACD indicator shows that uptrend will continue. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, its lines are ready to cross. In the current situation it makes sense to place sell orders with the targets of 1.6545 and 1.6500. In case of upward breakout at the level of 1.6618, buy orders can be placed with the short-term target of 1.6650.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
AUD/USD: AUD has fallen Current trend Today, following declaration made by the member of the governing board of the Reserve Bank of Australia Heather Ridout, the pair AUD/USD collapsed to the level of 0.8700. Heather Ridout said that the Australian dollar had been significantly overvalued and country’s economy still in need of restoration. RBA tries to lower national currency to the level of 0.8000. Technical indicators show further decline. Moving average lines are directed downward. The signal line and histogram of MACD are in the negative zone, giving a sell signal. Support and resistance At the moment the pair is testing the level of 0.8700; next support levels will be 0.8687 and 0.8620. Resistance levels are 0.8730, 0.8755 and 0.8800. Trading tips It is likely that the pair AUD/USD will continue to decline. Short positions can be placed below the level of 0.8680.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
EUR/USD: European currency has rushed up again Current trend On Thursday the pair received strong support from positive statistics on business activity index in Eurozone. The index was above the most optimistic forecast and the pair sharply went up , reaching the key resistance level of 1.3700. Although not many important news releases from the US and Europe are scheduled for today, however attention shall be paid to the speech of ECB chairman, Mario Draghi. It is likely that the pair will continue to consolidate in the sideways channel. In the medium-terms the pair will continue to strengthen. Next Monday German LFO will become known, if the data confirms positive forecast, the pair will continue to grow to the local highs of 1.3800 and 1.3830, and after that will return to support level of 1.3500. Support and resistance /b] Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3500, 1.3420 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830. Trading tips It is advisable to place pending orders to sell near 1.3800-1.3830 with profit taking at the level of 1.3500.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: investors are waiting for the US Fed meeting Current trend Last week was favourable for the British currency. The pair GBP/USD was supported by the positive UK news from one side, and weak macro-economic US statistics, from the other side. Unemployment rate in the UK fell by 0.2%; negative data on the US construction sector and decline in business activity in manufacturing sector give grounds for the pair to go up to the highs of May 2011. In addition to fundamental data, the rise in GBP/USD was triggered by the increasing interest to the Pound. Nevertheless, despite encouraging performance of the UK labour market the head of the Bank of England gives to understand that interest rate and volume of economic stimulation will remain at the previous levels. At the moment attention is focused on the next meeting of the US Fed where the decision on further reduction of quantitative easing program can be adopted. If volume of bonds purchase is reduced, the USD will get considerable support and the pair will go down to the level of 1.6200. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.6470, 1.6320, 1.6200 and 1.6100. Resistance levels: 1.6540, 1.6600 and 1.6660. Trading tips It is recommended to place pending sell orders from the level of 1.6540 with profit taking at the level of 1.6200.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies