Eur/usd - page 185
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EUR/USD weekly outlook: November 10 - 14
The euro moved higher against the dollar on Friday, rebounding from 26-month lows as a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report prompted investors to book profits in the greenback following its recent rally.
The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 214,000 jobs in October, missing expectations for jobs growth of 231,000.
September’s figure was revised up to 256,000 from a previously reported 248,000 and August’s figure was also revised up to 203,000 from 180,000, pointing to underlying strength in the labor market.
The U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to a fresh six-year low of 5.8% from 5.9% in September.
EUR/USD initially touched a fresh 26-month low of 1.2358 following the release of the data, before rising 0.67% to 1.2454 in late trade. For the week, the pair was still down 0.38%.
The data prompted investors to sell the dollar to lock in gains following its recent rally but did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates ahead of its major peers.
The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.63% to 87.66, off the four-and-a-half year peaks of 88.31 hit earlier in the session.
The single currency remained under pressure after the European Central Bank reiterated its pledge on Thursday to implement further stimulus measures if needed to combat persistently low levels of inflation in the euro area.
President Mario Draghi said the ECB would soon start purchases of asset-backed securities. The program will run for two years, and have a “sizeable impact” on the ECB’s balance sheet Draghi said, moving it towards its 2012 levels.
Elsewhere, the euro was slightly higher against the yen late Friday, with EUR/JPY edging up 0.12% to 142.73.
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EURUSD pair fell hard during the session on Friday, breaking down below the 1.24 level. Looks like the bears are in complete control and the pair should continue to move lower. We have a longer-term support of 1.2050, so selling the rallies between here and there will offer some risk/reward opportunities.
German Manufacturing Turnover Declines In September
German manufacturing turnover dropped at a slower pace in September, the provisional data from Destatis showed Monday.
Manufacturing turnover dropped by adjusted 0.4 percent in September from August, when it was down by 1 percent.
Domestic turnover rose 0.3 percent while the business with foreign customers slid 0.9 percent in September. Sales to euro area countries were 2 percent below preceding month's level and sales to other countries went down 0.2 percent.
On a yearly basis, real turnover in manufacturing advanced 0.8 percent in September. Domestic sales declined 1.1 percent from last year. On the other hand, foreign orders rose by 2.8 percent.
During January to September, turnover in manufacturing climbed 2.9 percent from the same period of last year.
Euro zone Sentix investor confidence near 18-month low in November
Investor confidence in the euro zone for November improved modestly but remained near the lowest level in 18 months, underlining concerns over the outlook for the region’s economy, data showed on Monday.
In a report, market research group, Sentix said its index of investor confidence improved to -11.9 this month, from a reading of -13.7 in October, which was the lowest since May 2013.
Analysts had expected the index to improve to -6.9 in November.
On the index, a level above 0.0 indicates optimism, beloEuro zone Sentix investor confidence near 18-month low in November
Investing.com - Investor confidence in the euro zone for November improved modestly but remained near the lowest level in 18 months, underlining concerns over the outlook for the region’s economy, data showed on Monday.
In a report, market research group, Sentix said its index of investor confidence improved to -11.9 this month, from a reading of -13.7 in October, which was the lowest since May 2013.
Analysts had expected the index to improve to -6.9 in November.
On the index, a level above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.
EUR/USD was trading at 1.2483 from around 1.2486 ahead of the release of the data, while EUR/GBP was at 0.7853 from 0.7854 earlier.
Meanwhile, European stock markets remained higher. The EURO STOXX 50 picked up 0.25%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.4%, Germany's DAX tacked on 0.1%, while London’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.3%.
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the whole week is without any important fundamental news I don't think the price will move much this week. today was a boring day with no significant entry points.
EUR / USD took off last Friday over the level of 1.2400.
This morning started in view of the resistance of 1.2535.
The outlook remains negative.
The level of momentum and RSI showed strength as the daily MACD remains below its zero line and signal.
There is a positive divergence between both oscillators and price action, which favors a correction.
R3 - 1.25722
R2 - 1.25406
R1 - 1.24816
Daily Pivot - 1.24500
S1 - 1.23910
S2 - 1.23594
S3 - 1.23004
Lower lows and lower highs are keeping the downtrend alive for the EURUSD, though larger swings on the hourly charts indicate momentum is slowing above 1.2360. We remain bearish on the pair though traditionally strong US stock performance has led to Euro gains, and with the stocks rallying this could put some pressure on USD bulls.
Swiss Franc Intervention Looms on UBS Radar as Cap Nears
Switzerland’s franc retreated from within 0.1 percent of the level at which UBS AG, the nation’s largest lender, says the central bank may step in to defend its cap on the currency.
The exchange rate had reached the closest it’s been to the 1.20-per-euro ceiling since September 2012, when the Swiss National Bank says it last sold the franc to enforce the limit.
The currency has strengthened before a Nov. 30 referendum that, if passed, would require the central bank to build its gold holdings as a proportion of assets to 20 percent, from 8 percent now. That risks making it harder for policy makers to control the exchange rate. The central bank would have five years to build its gold reserves up to the required level if the proposal is affirmed.
“The 2012 precedent suggests that the SNB might intervene and purchase euros at around 1.2010,” Beat Siegenthaler, a currency strategist at UBS in Zurich, wrote in a note e-mailed to clients dated yesterday. That said, “the gold initiative appears to have low chances of success,” he wrote.
The franc slipped less than 0.05 percent to 1.20303 per euro at 4:05 p.m. London time after strengthening to 1.20213. SNB spokeswoman Silvia Oppliger declined to comment when questioned on foreign-exchange market interventions.
The SNB’s cap was introduced more than three years ago to support Swiss exporters as investors sought the relative safety of the franc at the height of the euro area’s sovereign-debt crisis. It has only been breached once, when the currency appreciated to 1.19995 per euro on April 5, 2012.
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EUR / USD dropped to touch the moving average of 50 periods.
The RSI does not crossed the 50 line and the MACD is already in negative territory for almost crossing the signal line.
Evident on the daily chart are the minimum and maximum decreasing and below the moving averages of 50 and 200 days.
R3 - 1.25697
R2 - 1.25393
R1 - 1.24791
Daily Pivot - 1.24487
S1 - 1.23885
S2 - 1.23581
S3 - 1.22979
German Retail Trade Body Boosts 2014 Sales Forecast
Germany's retail industry association, the HDE, on Tuesday raised the sales forecast for this year and predicted an increase in the sales during the Christmas season compared to last year.
The group raised the sales growth outlook for this year by 0.3 percentage points to 1.8 percent, which is equivalent to EUR 459 billion.
The economic conditions are apt and the stable situation on the labor market is supporting consumer sentiment, the HDE said.
Sales during the Christmas season was forecast to rise 1.2 percent from a year ago to roughly around EUR 85 billion. Citing survey results, the HDE said consumers are willing to spend an average EUR 447 on Christmas gifts, which is nearly 50 percent more than the year before.
During November and December, sales in all retail sub-sectors were about 15 percent above the annual average, the HDE noted. Online retailers make nearly 25 percent of their sales during the final two months of the year.
Market research group GfK said in October that German consumer climate is set to improve slightly in November, ending the downward trend, as income expectations among households strengthened on the back of the strong labor market situation. In September, German retail sales declined at the fastest pace since mid-2007, Destatis said.
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