Eur/usd - page 191

[bewayopa]

The ECB president said that "It is unlikely a strong recovery in the coming months"

R3 - 1.26436

R2 - 1.26091

R1 - 1.25728

Daily Std. Pivot - 1.25383

S1 - 1.25020

S2 - 1.24675

S3 - 1.24312

[thenews]

EUR/USD forecast for the week of November 24, 2014

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the week, but as you can see the area above the 1.25 level continues to be far too expensive, and as a result it appears that the market is ready to continue going lower. With that, we feel that a break down below the lows again would send this market much lower and that would be a nice selling opportunity. We believe that the market will then go down to the 1.2050 level, and then perhaps even lower than that. We still maintain that rallies are selling opportunities.

source

[sherif]

last week was more a spontaneous moves than analytically

[thenews]

EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 24-28

EUR/USD traded in range for some time, but eventually lost ground and closed under 1.24. Can it extend its falls?The main events this week are the preliminary inflation releases, employment data as well as another German business survey. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

After long months of falls, Germany’s ZEW business confidence finally bounced back as investors returned to optimism. However, fresh purchasing managers’ indices disappointed. Germany’s flat manufacturing PMI was especially worrying. The final blow came from ECB president Draghi: he not only hinted about QE, but showed determination to act fast on battling the specter of deflation. This second speech of his was not challenged by the Germans, and the euro was hit hard. In the US, the FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Fed is somewhat worried about inflation expectations and widely agreed on leaving the “considerable time” phrase regarding rates. However, the global slowdown has little impact on the US according to the officials, Encouraging data from inflation, home sales and manufacturing did little to help the greenback.

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. IFO is Germany’s No. 1 Think Tank, and its 7000 strong business survey carries a lot of weight despite being published after the ZEW one. In recent months, business climate has been deteriorating according to IFO, with a recent fall to 103.2 points in October. After we have seen a bounce up from ZEW, a minor drop is expected here: 103 points.
2. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Monday, 14:00. While this comes from a small country, the wide survey is highly regarded. The indicator bounced back up in October, to -6.8 points, but the negative number still means deteriorating conditions. A small improvement is predicted now: -5.3 points.
3. German Final GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. According to the preliminary release, Germany managed to escape a recession and print a growth rate of 0.1% in Q3. This will likely be confirmed in the final read. However, a small slip to 0% would certainly be worrying.
4. German Import Prices: Wednesday, 7:00. Prices of imported goods serve as another measure of inflation. Given the slide in the price of oil and the relative stability of the euro in October, a slide of 0.3% is expected, after a rise of 0.3% in September.
5. German CPI: Thursday, states report during the morning, final all-German figure at 13:00. Germany saw prices fall by 0.3% in October, more than anticipated. The y/y HICP (European standard) slipped down to 0.7%. While this is above the euro-zone level of 0.4%, it is far from the ECB’s target. Any slip in y/y inflation will not bode well for the all-European number on Friday. A slide to 0.6% is predicted for the HICP. Month over month, no change is expected.

read more

[thenews]

German Ifo business climate rises to 104.7 in November

German business confidence improved unexpectedly in November, easing concerns over the health of the euro zone’s largest economy, industry data showed on Monday.

In a report, the German research institute, Ifo said its Business Climate Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 104.7 this month, above forecasts for 103.0 and up from a reading of 103.2 in October.

The Current Assessment Index increased to 110.0 in November, beating expectations for a reading of 108.0 and up from 108.4 in October.

The Business Expectations Index, which measures attitudes toward business prospects over the next six months, improved to 99.7 this month from 98.3 in October, above forecasts for 95.5.

The monthly index is based on a survey of around 7,000 German firms in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors.

EUR/USD was trading at 1.2395 from around 1.2382 ahead of the release of the data, while EUR/GBP was at 0.7924 from 0.7917 earlier.

Meanwhile, European stock markets added to gains. Germany's DAX tacked on 0.5%, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 rallied 1.1%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.9%, while London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.1%.

SOURCE

[Hugo Tiago Teixeira Aboim O Neill]

EURUSD fell sharply during the course of Friday’s session, testing the 1.2350 level. If the pair can break down below 1.2350 will head down to the 1.2050 level, which is a longer-term support. Ultimately bounces are selling opportunities as the US dollar should continue to be by far the safest currency in the world at the moment.

[thenews]

Euro gains vs dollar after Markit U.S. services data

The euro strengthened further against dollar early Monday after private data on the U.S. services sector fell short of forecast in early November, reducing earlier bullish bets on the greenback.

Financial data firm Markit said its "flash" services Purchasing Managers Index slipped to 56.3 in November, slightly below expectations and the lowest since April. This compared with October's final reading of 57.1.

The euro reached a session high of $1.2439 before edging down to $1.2423, up 0.3 percent from late on Friday.

[sherif]

we have a strong fundamental week on the euro this week

[bewayopa]

The daily momentum studies indicate positive divergence between them and the price action, which gives additional reason to wait for a fall.

R3 - 1.25539

R2 - 1.24990

R1 - 1.24696

Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24147

S1 - 1.23853

S2 - 1.23304

S3 - 1.23010

http://bewayopa.wordpress.com/

[Hugo Tiago Teixeira Aboim O Neill]

EURUSD initially fell during the course of yesterday session, but found enough support to bounce back up from the 1.24 handle. However, this is a pair that in a strong downward trend, so we may expect some sideways consolidation and the pair should continue to stay below the 1.26 level in the foreseeable future.