Daily Technical Outlook - page 3
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USDCHF- Vulnerable Despite Recovery Attempts.
USDCHF: With the pair continuing to look vulnerable despite its recovery attempt the past week, a return to the 0.9213 level is still a likely scenario. A decisive break of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. On the upside, the pair will have to follow through on its past week marginal gains to return to the 0.9424 level in order to reduce bear threats. Above here will resume its short term uptrend now on hold towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482 followed by the 0.9606 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
EURUSD: Consolidating With Upside Bias.
EURUSD: With EUR consolidating, there is risk of a return possibly to the 1.3171 level, its Sept 17’2012 high. A turn above here will call for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its weekly RSI points higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.2824 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair turn higher. However, if this fails to happen further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. All in all, EUR looks to recapture the 1.3171 level on ending its consolidation.
EURGBP: Biased To The Upside Above Trendline Support.
EURGBP- Although the cross may be vulnerable to the downside on correction, as long as it trades and holds above its rising trendline support (red), a return above 0.8163 level should occur. This if seen will resume its short term uptrend towards the 0.8200 level where a violation will call for more upside towards the 0.8268 level. Conversely, support lies at the 0.8001 level with a breach of the latter targeting the 0.7950 level. Further support comes in at the 0.7890 level. A cap is likely to occur and turn it higher. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the short term despite its corrective threats.
EURUSD: Extends Weakness, Aims At Key Support.
EURUSD: With EUR weakening for a second week in a row, further declines is likely in the new week. However, it will have to break and hold below the 1.2824 level to convince the market of further declines. Further down, support lies at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair turn higher but if this fails to happen further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.3018 level where a break will aim at the 1.3171 level, its Sept 17’2012 high. A turn above here will call for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. All in all, EUR looks to recapture the 1.2824 level on further weakness.
AUDUSD: Strengthens, Looks For More Upside.
AUDUSD: With the pair resuming its short term upside on Tuesday, further upside is likely to target the 1.0475 level with a breach creating scope for a run at the 1.0520 level. The ultimate target lies at the 1.0611/23 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, if its present bullish tone fails, it could target the 1.0304 level with a violation of there targeting the 1.0234 level. A breach will push it lower towards the 1.0198 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.0150 level. All in all, the pair continues to face upside risks.
GOLD: Triggers Recovery, Eyes Further Upside Pressure.
GOLD: The commodity halted its declines and triggered a corrective recovery the past week. This development leaves GOLD targeting the 1,750.00 where a violation will call for a move further higher towards the 1,795 level. A violation of here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1,800.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.850 level. Its weekly RSI has turned higher supporting its corrective tone. On the downside, support lies at 1,705.20 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1,640.45 level. A cut through here will allow for more declines towards the 1,600.00 level. A respite is likely to occur here but if that fails, expect Gold to weaken further towards the 1,580.00 level. All in all, GOLD is biased to the upside on correction
EURUSD: Sees More Upside Extension, Eyes Key Resistance
EURUSD: With EUR closing higher to hold above its broken resistance at the 1.2822 level, further price extension risk is likely in the days ahead. This will leave the pair targeting its psycho level at the 1.3000 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3171 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the downside, support comes in at the 1.2822 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2660/25 levels. A breach of here will call for a run at the 1.2560 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective recovery tone.
GBPJPY: Digesting Recent Gains. Maintains Its Broader Medium Term Upside.
GBPJPY – While GBPJPY’s immediate bias remains corrective, its broader medium term outlook remains higher. This suggests that on ending its present downside threats, it should head back higher towards the 132.42 level. A decisive break and hold above here will call for a run at 133.46 level, its Mar 2012 high. We may see price hesitation here but if taken out expect GBPJPY to strengthen further towards the 134.00 level. On the downside, support comes in at the 130.78 level where a violation will extend downside pressure towards the 129.97 level. Below here if seen will call for a run at the 129.62 level. On the whole, the cross remains biased to the upside in the medium term but faces corrective risks.
GBPUSD: Hesitates But Still Retains Broader Upside.
GBPUSD: The pair may have run into bears and closed marginally higher on Wednesday but it continues to maintain its upside bias. As long as it holds above the 1.6172/77 level, its broader upside view remains valid. This will leave the pair targeting the 1.6308 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.6350 level. Further out, the 1.6400 level comes in as the next upside target. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 1.6215 level Oct 05’2012 high followed the 1.6171 level where a reversal of roles could occur and turn GBP back up. However, if this fails further decline will shape up towards the 1.6100 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.6000 level and then 1.5900 level followed by the 1.5827 level. On the whole, GBP continues to hold on to its bullish bias with eyes on further upside.
EURUSD: Consolidation Sets In.
EURUSD: Our broader bias on EUR remains higher despite its present consolidation price action. On ending its consolidation, we expect the pair to retarget the 1.3307 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3350 level followed by the 1.3400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 1.3171/25 levels where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn it higher again. Further down, support is seen at the 1.3100 level followed by the 1.3000 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its broader medium term upside bias despite price hesitation.