Hi, this is Les_Paul, cannot use my "Les_Paul" nick yet, so I am using my older one. Hidden Gap talked about "chart mode" - when in down mode, take only short positions and when in up mode, take only long ones. I use one indi which I discovered a few days ago, it shows trend of any chosen TF - I use H1 and H4.
Nice to have you here :-) Well we created this thread not to be a concurrent to the one we know, but to learn in more details the trading knowledge that is required in addition to VSA. And it was easier to create a thread to post charts as we cannot when we send messages.
So again really happy to have you here too ;-))
hey guys..im gonnna try to post some charts again...lets see what happens! again im sorry i didnt get further but im going on a long awaited vacation this week and ive been packing and all that....BUT heres what id like to do ...since were at the "Identify the trend" section of our journey id like to get into a in-depth study with a definitive answer to indentifing the trend before we move on...to me it seems like we should cover each section thouroghly before moving on to the next..but of course im open to all ideas and suggestions...being open-minded is key to vsa success, no doubt...
les_paul what up brother!! glad your here!!!....ive gotten several pm's from here and the factory of guys wanting to join so all are welcome !!! goldmedalkid i got your pm and we are glad to have you join us!!!lets see if i can get a chart up.....
Which pairs to trade and when?
Well, we still have many things to say about the trend, but until Trader_X comes back, I'll talk about how to choose the currency pairs to trade.
So let's get started!
The best currency pairs to trade are EURUSD, USDGBP, USDCHF, USDJPY, USDCAD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, EURCHF and EURGBP.
When do we trade them? If we want to trade using the 15 min and 5 min timeframes, and we want to use volume spread analysis, we have to wait for the period when the Smart Money is active and this activity is high when the volume is high.
What I do is to open the hourly chart of the currency pair I want to trade and then I check each day from which time to which time I can see high volume in the currency pair. I noticed that even for pairs like AUDUSD or USDJPY, the period with the highest volume and activity is during London and American sessions.
So we know that it is better to trade during the London and American sessions. Now what are the best pairs to trade? Some people would say that we should trade only one pair and study it in deep until we know how it behaves. You're free to do it and if you're patient, I guess it is the best way to start. But you need to know when you should not trade one currency pair. And there will be some days when you're better staying out of the market.
So how to identify which pair we can trade? To do that I open the 15 min chart and watch the moves clarity? I think for you to understand it is better to start with an example. Look at the 15 min chart of EURUSD and compare it with the 15 min chart of USDCHF! I'm sure you would easily choose which one of the two pairs you would trade right now. EURUSD has really clear and proper moves. USDCHF would be really difficult to trade. One bar is going up on a wide spread and, a few bars later, a bar is making a big move in the opposite direction. If you've an opened position, it is very likely that you'll be stopped out due to a big move in the opposite direction. Notice that both pairs are trending. EURUSD is in down trend and USDCHF is in an up trend, but EURUSD would be much much easier to trade.
That's exactly the same reason why we don't want to trade during the news. The market is not showing us a clear picture of where it is and where it is likely going. So it is always better to trade pairs showing a lot of clarity on their char.
So if you want to focus on one currency pair at the beginning, then make sure that you don't trade when the chart is not clear enough.
Here we are: we know the best period to trade intraday and we can easily filter the currency pairs which have the highest clarity.
ok i got a chart to post...yeah!!! Now heres what i like to do to ID my trend...as i said i like to grab 20 - 30 pips a day...now many times ill enter a trade and as it unfolds , im watching the lower TFs and they may signal a turn in the market...at that point ill will monitor the trade closely and sometimes i have to close with only a portion of my original TP and wait for another trade..then again if my trade is running nicely and my larger TF's begin to line up ill let may trade ruin.what we wont be doing is ever let a winning trade turn to a loser...its a confidence killer!!! which brings up one more really important factor i wont to touch base on...CONFIDENCE!!! Every single accomplished trader i know have one thing in common....they are confident in the trades they take!!! it is an absolute must!!! if you are second guessing your trade before you even push the button the odds are already stacked against you!...then when you lose your confidence decreases even more ...so save yourself the money and misery and stop trading until you know your ready!!! even if your demo trading dont take the trade until you can feel it...you know where the markets gonna go based on your your analogy!!! its better to take 2 trades and win 2 then take 10 trades and win 5!!!! on to the trend...regards, John
Excellant post Dvarrin...your exactly right...we want look for a cuurency that is trending...later as we get more advanced we'll study the Acc/Dist phases and be able to identify these stages and trade them but for now where all about putting probability on our side ...
lets say its last friday at the london session...so where gonna look at the EU.begining with the daily...i use the diamonds from TG, i like them, but you can use any of your favorite indies to help i.d. the trend....in the next screenshot...is MT4 EU Daily with 3 EMA 50,21,10 (philllip nels work, not mine)...but whats most interesting is price will always hug theses diamonds(or ma's)...when price moves too far from these, it will work its way back or consolidate and let the diamonds (or MA's) come to it....now the reason i bring this up is to discuss different TF's trending differnet directions...you see in my daily (where i circled in black) before price came back to the diamonds, the trend is up...then i go to my 4h which looks sorta flat(see next post)
so is good to go either way...then the 2h and 1h chart are trending nicely down....so we have a daily thats up but price is well away from the diamonds (or MA"s) and we know we have plenty of room for the price to come back to them...then we have the 4h which could go either way and the2h/1h trending down nicely...so short is most likely direction!...Now this IS NOT VSA..where not even there yet..were just getting a general trend direction...VSA may tell us long is the way, but at first glance short is the obvious direction of choice!!!
here are the 4h/2h/1h charts...what im trying to point out here is that the 2h/1h trends is clearly down...my 4h is consolidating and could go either way so thats ok and although my daily is up it is well away from my diamonds/ma's and has room to retrace...if vsa tells me there are SOW i know i have room for price to run! if the daily and /or 4hr were tight up against my diamonds or MA's i know those act as potenital support so i would be watching those if i chose to short against them ..but thats not the case here....does all this make sense to any one? a 15m trend can easily be price just retracing on the 1h and so on....its about market flow...best regards, john
even when im looking for my entry on lower tf i like to see my vsa signals at or near my diamonds or MA or whatever trend indie you prefer...its an extra confirmation...i hope to get to a vsa skill level where my charts are bare of an type of indie but for now there like training wheels and they do help..since we know the smaller tf's make up the larger, but the larger tfs are stronger you have to use vsa to determine if the smaller tfs are just retracing the larger or if ther building a new trend. .ill be gone for a week but ill be following along on my phone..id really like to see any new material on the this very important subject...best regards, john
one last thing..
im trying to think of a simple way to explain what it is im trying to convey..heres the long and short of it....if youve got a daily down and a 4h thats up your gonna want to use vsa to tell you is the 4hr weak and just a retracement of the daily or is the daily weak and the 4h strong suggesting were getting a trend change...hope that helps...remember the diamonds, MA's , channels , trendlines, or whatever ,is only an added SMALL confirmation ....good trading guys and remember were building confidence here so treat it with respect , take care of it like it was a prized postion dont just throw it around! im anxious to read anyone else take on theis subject..best regards, john
Really great stuffs all what you wrote about the trend Trader_X!! :-)