Fundamental Analysis - page 5
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EURUSD: Outlook of the Day
Our EURUSD short was triggered yesterday. The 1st trade closed at take-profit while stop-loss was adjusted to 1.3120.
I expected this pair to continue its reversal towards my second traget at 1.2740. It is currently approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2776 formed from the low at 7-Jun-2010 and the High at 6-Aug-2010.
When the price break the level, I would expect the price to move towards 1.2740.
I have mentoned yesterday "There is a possibility that this retrace could be a huge one taking out the entire rally from 07-Jun-2010 at 1.1875. As I posted yesterday, I am still thinking of using 1.2740 as an initial traget.". As such, I would hold on to my last trade and hope that this retrace will unfold itself and take out the entire rally hitting 1.1875.
I would recommend to bring stop-loss to breakeven when the second trade closed.
Happy trading....
USDJPY: Outlook of the Day
The Dollar-Yen broke its low of 84.80 (created 26-Nov-2009) at yesterday's trading creating a new low at 84.72. Although 84.80 was broken, the signal from the MACD is not strong enough to initiate a Sell entry.
From the daily chart, the Dollar-Yen look quite over sold and I am not expecting the declines below 84.80 lows to be sustained. On the other hand, I am expecting once 84.80 is broken out, the Dollar-Yen is ready for a major upside corrective move. This corrective move (or retrace) could be seen as a necessary move before the Dollar-Yen resume its long term bearish move.
One possible trade setup will be to go long on the failure to break 84.72 - 84.80 area with a proper candlestick reversal confirmation.
I will continue to observe this pair and will update as soon as I see a trade opportunity.
Happy trading....
USDJPY: Outlook of the Day
The USDJPY looks to have bonced off the low it created at 84.72 to close at 86.16. The price is now approaching and testing the 21-day SMA. I would consider to buy if the price is able to break the 21-day SMA with either candlestick pattern, MACD or other indicator for confirmation of buy entry.
From the daily chart, the Dollar-Yen look quite over sold and I am not expecting the declines below 84.80 lows to be sustained. On the other hand, I am expecting once 84.80 is broken out, the Dollar-Yen is ready for a major upside corrective move. This corrective move (or retrace) could be seen as a necessary move before the Dollar-Yen resume its long term bearish move.
Summary of the Week ending 13 Aug 2010
This seems a nice week. The EURUSD reverse as I projected. An sell entry was initiated at 1.3070 with the first trade closing at 100 PIPS profit. The second trade and third trade was still in place. As I posted yesterday, in view of the EUR GDP and US CPI news released, the stop-loss was adjusted to 1.2931 which secured a 139 PIPS profit per remaining trade. This adjustment to the stop-loss is necessary just in case the news release move the price against us.
As of the end of the week, my total closed P/L is 433 PIPS. The current still open P/L is 628 PIPS.
Let me now try to review and project for the coming week.
EURUSD
The EURUSD is retracing its way nicely downwards since the begining of the week. It has broken the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2776 and closed the week at 1.2753.
I am expecting the EURUSD to continue to test the 1.2740 resistance turn support line when market opens on Monday and my secong trade will be closed at take-profit.
There is a possibility that this retrace could be a huge one taking out the entire rally from 07-Jun-2010 at 1.1875. As such, I would hold on to my last trade and hope that this retrace will unfold itself and take out the entire rally hitting 1.1875.
USDJPY
From the daily chart, the Dollar-Yen look quite stretched out and I am not expecting the declines below 84.80 lows to be sustained. On the other hand, I am expecting once 84.80 is broken out, the Dollar-Yen is ready for a major upside corrective move. This corrective move (or retrace) could be seen as a necessary move before the Dollar-Yen resume its long term bearish move.
Since 16 July 2010, the Dollar-Yen has been creating Lower Lows. On the other hand, the RSI is seen to diverging from the prices. This divergence might indicate possible trading opportunity for the Dollar-Yen.
I would look to possible long trade is the price can test and break the 21-day SMA when market resume on Monday. Areas above 87.00 look good.
Have a nice weekend and nice trading ahead....
USDCHF: Trade Opportunity
My long term outlook for this pair is bearish. The short to mid term trend for this pair is bullish. The pair is currently testing the short to mid term uptrend resistance line (in blue).
The short to mid term resistance line also tally with the 1.0370 resistance line. I would look to possible long trade if the price is not able to break the 1.0370 resistance line.
Long trade will be entered with the confirmation of candlestick reversal pattern.
EURUSD: Outlook of the Day
The Euros seems to have stop its decline since Monday. Its has reached a high 1.2915 in today's trading (at the point of writing). The price has tested the 100-day SMA on last Friday with a failure to break below it.
I will remain short from 1.3070. At the same time, I have move down my stop to 1.2931 to lock in some profits.
My long term outlook for the Euros remained bearish. If we get stop-out in our current trade, we could look for re-entry opportunity at the failure to break 1.3000. The current pullback by the Euros could actually provide another great selling opportunity and hopefully with a better risk to reward ratio.
I am keeping my finger cross that this retrace is just a small one and the Euros will continue on its predicted downward move.
USDCHF: Outlook of the Day
As I have mentioned "My long term outlook for this pair is bearish. The short to mid term trend for this pair is bullish. The pair is currently testing the short to mid term uptrend resistance line (in blue)."
After the last two days of trading, the price still could not break the short to mid term uptrend resistance line. An aggressive trade setup will be looking to buy the pair if the price is able to break the 21-day SMA with confirmation from the MACD or any other indicators of a buy.
A more conservative trade setup will be to enter a long trade only if there is a candlestick pattern that indicates a proper reversal. You might like to visit here to check out the various candlestick reversal patterns.
Happy trading....
P.S> We are still in the EURUSD trade. Currently in profit of 205 PIPS. Check out here for my trade P/L.
USDJPY: Outlook of the Day
The USDJPY is not showing a clear direction of movement to the upside or downside. The price has been moving in a wedge formation down trend channel since 19-May-2010 (Green line).
The RSI has been showing positive divergence from the price. This is sure to reinforce my view of a coming upward reversal. I will look to buy the pair if the pair can closed above the wedge at the end of the day. The buying will have to confirm with either the MACD or other indicators.
Initial targets might be 87.00 or even 88.20. Will confirm on the take-profit and stop-loss later if the trade opportunity presents.
Happy trading....
P.S> We are still in the EURUSD trade. Currently in profit of 260 PIPS. Check out here for my trade P/L.
EURUSD: Outlook of the Day
The EURUSD has maintained its congestion for the past week and today is Friday. As with all congestion, the longer the price stays within the congestion, the greater the strength of the breakout if it is to occur later. The strength of the follow through in price is expected to be a great one too.
As of current status, I am still short (0.1lot) EURUSD from 1.3070 with stop-loss at 1.2931. I am looking for possible downwards breakout as I am still maintaing a long term bearish outlook on the pair. I might want to add to my position if the price could break the 1.2720 - 1.2740 with strong price action indicating a breakout to the down side.
Happy trading....
P.S> We are still in the EURUSD trade. Currently in profit of 255 PIPS. Check out here for my trade P/L.