Qf - page 2
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Not much Sunday as market are closed. Took the time to make sure my track on myfxbook is verified. It now is so you can see it in the list of systems. It shows up on the third page if you filter for systems that have been around for at least a month.
Annoying day today. There was huge spike down on USDCHF in FXDD's data feed. I have/had a long position so I was taken out with a huge loss on that spike. FXDD fixed this problem, but it took them ALL DAY LONG. This is bull.
So my long USDCHF position has been re-instated by FXDD and is still in play. I have a long AUDJPY and USDJPY position as well to partially hedge my USDCHF position. If there is a rally in stocks, the JPY will fall the most but that doesn't necessarily mean that the USD will weaken. That is why I am looking to sell GBPUSD and EURUSD if they pull back a bit more. Spain has had its ratings cut; France and UK may be next...
Indices dropped again in the last 30 mins of trading. I hold no ETF positions. The shorts may be over done, so I may enter buy some ETF longs soon...we'll see...
Oanda has yet to release performance statements for May. As soon as they do I will post the results (which have been the best to date!).
The rally in the indices did take place as noted yesterday. I did profit from it as my USDJPY and AUDJPY positions hit their targets. The weakness in JPY is partially due to the Japanese premier stepping down (Prime minister).
Also as mentioned yesterday, there were no rallies in the european currencies even though the indices rallied. So, my USDCHF is now a risk free trade and still running and my GBPUSD hit its target on the short side.
I did NOT however take an index position and even after this rally, I am not planning on taking one. There is alot of congestion still... (along with EURUSD)
I am going to be pretty much on the side lines for the rest of the week until after NFP Friday morning. I don't know how that number will come out, but if it is not as good as expected it will be interesting to see how the market will react. This will give us an idea of what the trend is and where prices may be headed next.
An interesting read concerning NFP numbers:
CORRECT: US Census: No Double Count for Jobs Rpt Census Boost | ForexLive
Summary ... around 700K workers may be added due to US census hirings without a single industry hiring...Talk about government number fudging...
Let's see who gets fooled. I'm going to be a string seller on any big EURUSD, GBPUSD spikes up.
Holding no positions in any account. Waiting for NFP tomorrow. The decoupling between EURUSD and the future indices is becoming more obvious. Hungary is next to be gunned by the market. Have a bunch of short EURUSD pending orders waiting above current price ... just waiting for a nice price spike up.
Below is the FX account balance snapshot.
Very interesting day today. Took a long EURUSD position in the hope that there will be intervention / protection of 1.2000 ... boy was I wrong. Good thing is I didn't even wait for the market to hit my stop and closed that position at 1.1985.
At the same time, after I saw the reaction the gold market had on NFP, I quickly bought up on the dip! That position is well in profit and has covered the loss on the EURUSD and then some...
I am mostly in cash in this market. The interventions are not working or at least loosing their effect, the public is not listening to the rubbish officials are trying to sell to people, these dips are picking up MORE and MORE momentum (not the other way around). People are finally starting to talk about a double dip ... I've been talking about it since the end of April when the market was near yearly highs.
NFP disappointed big time. There were virtually not private sector jobs created !!! Who's going to hire? Why would they? If we take out jobs created by government, education, and healthcare we have a negative jobs number over the last 10 years !!! It is astounding what the free markets have been able to accomplish.
After all these years trading, I still love watching the market move, especially to the downside (and I am positioned well for the drop!). I don't get off on it nearly as much when the market climbs (and I am positioned well for the climb!). I must be evil.
I've attached a snapshot of the two trades I executed. As mentioned the EURUSD trade has already been closed at 1.1985.
Have a great weekend ! I know I will !
xxx
My long gold position hit its target. Gold is very close to make all time highs. Closing the experimental long EURUSD position prematurely on Friday was the right thing to do as price has gone sub 1.1900 and would have taken our my stop for a full loss rather than the half loss I decided to take friday.
The market is getting over sold, but I think it will have a hard time having any substantial rally. We may be oscillating back and forth at least until end of week when we get some investing economic numbers.
I have positioned myself for further USD gains, but my orders are waiting for a retracement. I also have a small index long as I think there may be the possibility for a short term bounce.
To summarize I have a few pending orders to go long USD if a retracement takes place, but have no active fx trades. The only active trade I have is a small long index position. Trying to be a contrarian again! This will be a very interesting week and I am excited to see how it pans out.
Makes me good to know that many 'world class' hedge funds had their ass handed to them last month according to this article:
Hedge Funds Post Biggest Monthly Losses Since Lehman Aftershock - Bloomberg.com
I think this is partially because banks and hedge funds have moved to more mean reversion algorithms than before ... if you look at a chart of the VIX you'll see how it has been decreasing since March 2009.
I am the guy that took money from those bastards and I don't feel bad about it at all. Last month was an absolute 3 sigma positive return for me where I was able to close the month with 10%+ increase in equity and virtually no drawdown. For the 4+ years I've been trading, I have never had a 10%+ increase in equity in a single month. I don't expect this to be repeated in the next 4+ years, but I'm going to enjoy it for as long as it lasts. Been thinking about just folding shop for the rest of the year and enjoying beautiful CA, but I'm sure I'll get bored in a week doing nothing and my investors will complain I'm not making them more money!
Shorting EURJPY ... got pending orders to short GBPUSD and later on up EURUSD .. the EURUSD short order may take a while to enter (or it may not enter at all)