Fundamental Analysis - page 6
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USDJPY: Outlook of the Day
The USDJPY is getting deeper and deeper into the wedge formation I mentioned yesterday. When the price eventually breakout to the upside, I will expected the move to be a great one.
Of course, I would not rule out a break to the downside, (In the long term outlook, the USDJPY is still in a bearish trend) therefore, a break to the downside will look to to a continuation of a bearish move.
There is no clear direction for the short to mid term outlook of the USDJPY.
So, how to trade from here?
I would look to trade long if the price is able to break the wedge and close above 85.80 - 86.00. The area of take profit might be around 88.30. Stop-loss could be placed around 84.70. I will normally employed a 3 stage take-profit trade strategy and 88.30 might be my first stage.
Another trade setup will be in line with the long term trend of the USDJPY. That is to short the pair on the break of the downside of the wedge. But, I am not actually looking forward to trade that setup now as I am on the view that USDJPY will break towards the upside.
Happy trading....
Summary for the Week ending 20 Aug 2010
Another nice week for me and hopefully for all of us as well. There is not much action from the EURUSD through the week except on Monday and Friday. On Monday (16 Aug 2010), the price broke 1.2740 and closed or second trade at take-profit. The price then reversed and almost took us out of our third trade (3 times to be exact on Tues, Wed and Thur). Our stop-loss held on and on Friday, the price broke the mid to short term up trend resistance line (in blue) and also the 1.2740 and closed at 1.2710.
I adjusted my stop-loss again last night to 1.2900 to lock some more profits for the third trade. Currently my closed P/L has 763 PIPS while my opened P/L has 356 PIPS. I have locked-in about 170 PIPS for my third for EURUSD.
Let me now try to review and project for the coming week.
EURUSD
The EURUSD had broke the short to mid term up trend resistance line (in blue) and the 1.2740 resistance line. I am still on the belief that there is a possibility that this retrace could be a huge one taking out the entire rally from 07-Jun-2010 at 1.1875. As such, I would hold on to my last trade and hope that this retrace will unfold itself and take out the entire rally hitting 1.1875.
I am actually looking to add on to my current position if the price break the 1.2720 - 1.2740 with strong price action indicating a breakout to the down side. One trade setup will be to place a pending long entry at 1.2650 with stop-loss at 1.2730 and take-profit objective open. The second trade setup is to wait for the price retrace back to 1.2740 before entry. An entry at this price value will provide a better risk to reward ratio.
Placed your orders only when the market open on Monday (after 0000GMT). It is not advisable to trade on a sunday when the trade volume is low. The other reason as to why I would not trade on a sunday is the gapping of price after the market reopen after a weekend.
USDJPY
The USDJPY is getting deeper and deeper into the wedge formation I mentioned yesterday. When the price eventually breakout to the upside, I will expected the move to be a great one. Of course, I would not rule out a break to the downside, (In the long term outlook, the USDJPY is still in a bearish trend) therefore, a break to the downside will look to to a continuation of a bearish move.
There is no clear direction for the short to mid term outlook of the USDJPY.
I would look to trade long if the price is able to break the wedge and close above 85.80 - 86.00. The area of take profit might be around 88.30. Stop-loss could be placed around 84.70. I will normally employed a 3 stage take-profit trade strategy and 88.30 might be my first stage.
Another trade setup will be in line with the long term trend of the USDJPY. That is to short the pair on the break of the downside of the wedge. But, I am not actually looking forward to trade that setup now as I am on the view that USDJPY will break towards the upside.
Have a nice and happy weekend....
EURUSD: Outlook of the Day
The Euros seem to find support at the 50% fibonscci level (1.2604) formed from the swing low on 07 Jun 2010 to the swing high on 06 Aug 2010. The price has been testin this level for the past three days. I am looking for the price to break this level and to continue on its journey towards the downside.
I have currently 0.15 lots of the Euros on hand with entry at 1.3070 and 1.2650.
The long term outlook of the Euros is still bearish and I am still standing firm and and confident on my view of a full retrace to the low created on the 07 Jun 2010. And as such I am still holding onto my lots until my objective is reached or the stop-loss is hit.
USDJPY: Outlook of the Day
What is USDJPY doing? It seems to be creating lows after lows. The low 84.80 on 26 Nov 2009 was broken on 11 Aug 2010 and then on 24 Aug 2010 at 83.59. Would the USDJPY start to move towards its lowest low created in 1995?
The price is still within the down trend wedge that I have mentioned in the last posts on the USDJPY. I am currently standing on the side-way waiting for price to break the upper line of the wedge to enter long.
Therefore for the moment of time, I prefer to stand on the walkway and am doing nothing with regards to the USDJPY pair. In other words, I am patiently waiting for a USDJPY reversal, which I will initiate a long entry.
Happy trading....
EURUSD: Outlook of the Day
I have actually add on to my original trade of 0.1 lot short Euros when the price broke the short to mid term uptrend resistance line (in blue) and also the 1.2740 resistance line.
The Euros seem to find support at the 50% fibonscci level (1.2604) formed from the swing low on 07 Jun 2010 to the swing high on 06 Aug 2010. The price has been testin this level for the past days. The Euros is undergoing some sort of retracement in the mean time and I am confident that after the retracement, the price move to break this level and to continue on its journey towards the downside, hopefully towards the low at 1.1875.
Read more .....
Summary of the Week Ending 27 Aug 2010
I adjusted my stop-loss for the EURUSD trade to 1.2835 this week to lock in 235 PIPS of profit.
I have actually add on 0.5 lots to my original trade of 0.1 lot short EURUSD when the price broke the short to mid term uptrend resistance line (in blue) and also the 1.2740 resistance line. Entry at 1.2650 and Stop-loss at 1.2835.
Currently my closed P/L has 763 PIPS while my opened P/L has 247.5 PIPS. Confirmed profits lock-in has been adjusted to 142.5 PIPS due to the entry of the 0.5 lot of short EURUSD.
Let me now try to review and project for the coming week.
Read More ....
USDJPY: Outlook of the Day
USDJPY broke the wedge this morning.
I have mentioned "I will looking to buy the pair if the price is able to break the top side of the wedge and also ia also able to close between 85.60 - 85.80. Confirmation from the MACD or other indicators might be used as a confirmation for entry."
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EURUSD: Outlook of the Day
Just as I have hoped. The retrace of the EURUSD is indeed small. It has found some support around the 50-day SMA and the price has since reverse and is now set to test the 50% fibonacci level at 1.2604 formed from the swing low on 07 Jun 2010 to the swing high on 06 Aug 2010. When the support at this level breaks, the price will look set to continue its move towards the downside.
I continue to maintain that the long term outlook of the EURUSD is bearish.
Read More....
USDCHF: Outlook of the Day
Possible trading opportunity off the bounce off 1.0130 a resistance formed since 11 Jan 2010.
We could look for a possible long trade off the bounce off 1.0130. The short to mid term outlook of the USDCHF is bullish and as such I shall look to buy the pait on the failure to break 1.0130 with an initial objective at 1.0370. Stop-loss may be placed at 1.0100.
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EURUSD: Outlook of the Day
I said on my weekly summary to short on the failure to break 1.3000 yesterday, but I forget to say to short on the failure to break 1.2900 as well. 1.2900 has been a resistance since 17 Aug 2010 when EURUSD starts its move to the downside.
Failure to break 1.2900 might be one good opportunity for us to short the pair to gain some PIPS. As I have strongly said, "The EURUSD's long term outlook is still bearish". It is the Bull for the USD...
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