Does a safe Martingale exist ? - page 4

Bob Davids
1982
Bob Davids  
newdigital:
Hi davidke20,

You did not understand me.

I have nothing "between the lines".

I only wanted to say that you are one of the persons who made this section:

Martingale/Average Cost and Hedging - Forex-TSD

This section can not be so popular without your participation and it is what I wanted to say.

I understand about motivation but what can I do?

When I see that one of the main supporter for the section is almost gone and the other people came to benefit (from what he did) so what can I do? I am posting ... posting ... about PR ... about everything ...

Exactly opposite meaning

I am talking that you are not trying to do PR here in your section and it is not good. It is your section too.

I am just trying to keep good people inside the forum and it is what the meaning of all my posts here in this section and about PR too.

Wow! That makes me looks important Thank you thank you Anyways, I guess it's about time to stop bullshit. I'm going to post EA so people can start playing with it and who knows, to start improve it.

Kind regards,

David

Bob Davids
1982
Bob Davids  

Here is the EA I've mentioned in my previous post. You may increase your take profit progressively as your losses increasing, meanwhile to remain your accuracy on the initial trades as the take profit is small.

EA uses envelopes to trigger trades. It has the ability to use ATR to determine stop loss / take profit. But I wouldn't recommend that as ATR always changes the amount of TP/SL will cause the martingale sequence haywire.

I have not install any extra platform to test as I've stop backtesting for awhile. If any of the people out there would be kind enough to help us backtest it for 3 months and post a result, I'll be glad to see that. If possible, please provide us an optimization result. You'll see some crazy shit as I can prove you.

Kind regards,

David

p/s: ND in reading, kindly advice whether we need to start a new thread. Because this looks like thread hijack instead.

Files:
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
122849
Sergey Golubev  

I will move the post to separated thread, ok?

Or you can start new thread and I will delete this my post and previous yours?

Bob Davids
1982
Bob Davids  
newdigital:
I will move the post to separated thread, ok? Or you can start new thread and I will delete this my post and previous yours?

No problem for me ND. Up to you to decide. But if you want a new thread, you'll have to give me time. These few days I will be out of town and not able to spend time on posting. So, hopefully next week we'll be able to start everything. Meanwhile, people in reading, you may continue with other creativity thoughts.

Cheers

David

iGoR
1474
iGoR  

Wait davidke and ND,

before you open a new topic let me come back to you and reply on the postings you made.

Don't have the time right now but going to try tomorrow if not during the weekend.

Friendly regards....iGoR

viv108
145
viv108  
davidke20:
No problem for me ND. Up to you to decide. But if you want a new thread, you'll have to give me time. These few days I will be out of town and not able to spend time on posting. So, hopefully next week we'll be able to start everything. Meanwhile, people in reading, you may continue with other creativity thoughts.

Cheers

David

Hey david - on your blog, what is the the double hedge EA you have been using? Is it your own work? Its awesome.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
122849
Sergey Golubev  
davidke20:
No problem for me ND. Up to you to decide. But if you want a new thread, you'll have to give me time. These few days I will be out of town and not able to spend time on posting. So, hopefully next week we'll be able to start everything. Meanwhile, people in reading, you may continue with other creativity thoughts.

Cheers

David

Hi davidke20,

I copied one post to be a new thread here (with EA attached):

https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/180507

So, let's say - it is new thread: https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/180507

You can edit first post if necessary.

iGoR
1474
iGoR  

Hi Davidke,

New Digital ment it well. But I know that sometimes the way he explains can be a little bit confusing that is because his native language is not English (no offence at all ND--all my respect to you)(my native language is also not english).

OK Davidke lets join forces if you have the time. If I sometimes say that I do not agree with you please don't take this in a bad way. I know that you know what you talk about and I hope you think the same way about me.

first, I don't really understand what you say in your first posting about my opinion on martingale ?...

Let me first say that I do not aprove trading with martingale. Not today and never is the past. Because sooner or later it blows up your account.

As A.Elder stated in his book "trading for a living" if you start of with Martingale with only 1$ and you have 36 consecutive loosing trades then on your 37th trade you need to place the capital of the whole world on your next trade or bet.

BUT in the past I have been looking and trading d'alambert. But to be honest, it can blow up your account also if you have a period of to many loosing trades ( if hitrate drops under 33% for a longer period of time).

But in whatever in trading what is so called not possible is intreaging me.

So even that I know that martingale is not the MM to use I did a lot of calculations and even more simulations on the different kind of martingales.. If it was not to come up with something that would work then it was at least something to learn from.

I am already very glad that you know some very important matemathical FACTS in trading. Such as the moment that you have a T/P that is bigger then your S/L then AUTOMATICLY you have a hitrate that is smaller then 50%. Many or most people don't want to accept that.

The moment that you want to have a hitrate that is more then 50% then your T/P needs to be smaller then your S/L. NO WAY to get around this or you found yourself the Holy Grail.

When I opened this topic it was with the purpose to investigate if a SAFE martingale would be possible. That is very important a SAFE martingale.

OK lets go to your spreadsheet that you posted:

Let me explain a little bit how I see it. I understand what you show in your spreadsheet. But the way that I look to it is that it does not matter that if the T/P is equal or bigger then the S/L. I know that if one goes for a T/P that is 3 x times bigger then the S/L that it will be far more difficult to hit that T/P then if the T/P is equal to the S/L.

BUT....in every possible case I look to what would happen if one has for example 10 or 13 consecutive loosing trades. I know that many people out there will say that this will hardly ever happen with the kind of system that they trade. Even Blessing 3.8 (up till now I could not run a backtest with it on my platform even with a 90% moddeling qualtily without blowing up my account). But even it happens only in 10 years then it blows up your account. Which is 1 time to much.

I took your example in your spreadhseet and took it to a little bit more realistic level and that is when one would trade an account of 10k$ that you would trade at least mini lots. Because if you have 5 consecutive profits with 20 pips T/P and only 1 micro lot you made yourself only 20$. Because that is the problem with all martingale system that you need to take your lotsize as small as possible to start with otherwise you can blow up your account. But if you make profit based on that smallest lotsize it does not make any realistic money.

So I changed your spreadsheet it would trade mini lots.

Important now is that we will not look to the way you calculate your T/P's because we first want to see what happens if we have a streek of losing trades.

If we have 6 consecutive losing trades then the 7th trade you are already on 6.4 full lots. Depending with which broker you work and the leverage he is giving you (remember from the 18th of October all US brokers go to 50:1 leverage on major pairs) then it could be that you can not take in that 6th trade. If it would be possible and it would also be a loosing trade then you lost already -25% of your money. And the next trade you are on an impossible lot size of 12.8 full lots ( most reliable brokers do not accept this kind of lotsize with 7.5K$)

If I take the same amount of consecutive losing trades and take my calculation of lot size then on the 6th trade I am still only on 0.8 lots and after the 7th losing trade I lost 5% of my account which is very small. And the 8th trade I am only on 1.1 full lots.

We both took -20pips loss. Again I know that you can hit your T/P quicker or easier then I can but I only want to look to the risk we take to see how can we survive as long as possible in case of really unfavourable market conditions.

The way that I calculated even with a T/P of 200 pips I would still be in business even on a mini lot account.

Let me push it even a little bit more:

Because of my hitrate that will be under 50% (T/P > S/L) it is very possible that I could have 13 consecutive losing trades. But my 13 th trade is 4.6 full lots and is still accepted by my broker and I am indeed on that moment losing 35% of my account.

But lets say that you would have also 13 consecutive losses ( I know the chance is very small) but your T/P would then also be on 44pips and you need to take an impossible 409 full lots. And needles to say that in the mean time all the money is already long time gone.

So I think david and I reapeat I think that the way I calculate is a safer martingale if we first look to losses and risk and only then to possible profits.

Do you agree ?....if not we are going to go further on this. If yes then lets move to the next step.

Looking forward to your reply.

Friendly regards... FXiGoR

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
122849
Sergey Golubev  
iGoR:
... if we first look to losses and risk and only then to possible profits.

Hi iGoR,

Yes, that's correct.

But I am not talking about the systems, safe martingale or any.

My intention is only to keep good people to be inside the forum. The people who were creating 50% or 70% of the forum content for free for the many years, the people who supported my activity for the long time (for free), and people who spent their own time and money to create this good forum sometimes without any commercial interest at all for many years.

When such the people are leaving the forum so it is the tragedy for any moderator/admin (and I hope - for the owners too). And in this way - I will have to explain to the other people about why those guys are so important, what they did, why they left without any simple 'thanks you' from anyone, and what the forum should do to keep them inside.

And davidke20 is one of the members who made this section to be a popular one and who created some significant part of the content here spending his time for everyday posting, coding, improving for the many years for free.

Many main supporters left the forum, you know it ...

I will continue this thread with explanation about everything:

https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/179423

So, all my words here are nothing about trading systems at all.

iGoR
1474
iGoR  
newdigital:
So, all my words here are nothing about trading systems at all.

Hi ND,

I absolutly understood what you were trying to say from the beginning ND but I believe that davidke probably miss understood you.

But we all ment it well. So no problems

Friendly regards... iGoR