Eurusd/gbpusd - page 485
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This is actually amusing & quite funny when I think about it. Okay allow me to use my play-school example:
If I asked a new trader the following:
On Friday last week a bar of chocolate cost 15 cents. On Monday last week the price was 5 cents which was the lowest the price reached. Last Friday the price reached 20 cents (which was the highest price last week) then fell to 15 cents were it stayed.
I say to the new trader
@ "This week the highest price is likely to be 22 cents."
@ " This week's High will exceed last week's High of 20 cents with 77% certainty."
@ "This week's lowest price is likely to be 4 cents."
@ " This week's low will be lower than last week's low of 5 cents with 82% certainty."
Anyway, on Monday the price opens at 21 then quickly goes to 23 then falls back to 21.5. Given the probabilities, what is the most rational choice to make? A 13 year old child with a basic grasp of math could probably tell you that holding a long at this level wouldn't be wise. The new trader could most certainly tell you that the best chance of profit is being short.
I THEN GIVE THE NOOB TRADER THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
There is a 92% probability of the price hitting the average of the the forecast high (22) & forecast low (4).
Then I ask the noob trader to calculate a place to take profit where they are virtually guaranteed to make money. I'm pretty sure the noob trader would give me the answer (22+4)/2 = 13. The surprise surprise the price falls to 13.
Well the average for the GU was 4984 & the average for the EU was 3590. 92% probability and you're here complaining.
Anyway, back to the trading.
I expect price failure around 3804 but since the up move was strong I'll need a combination of weak candlesticks (on the 15m) and reversal chart pattern (such as a double top on the 5m) before pulling the short trigger.
sorry m8 i clean my pm and send you ,if you like to kill me what can i do? i investe my time(spend?)to trade to build new system and visit the group. and if you watch week no. 3647,3707 was abuy, if you follow gu week no.you see that week no. are returun.and to be fair your break no. 3657, 3592 are acting as a buy
M8, you're a joke plain and simple. I don't know about you but I think that quite a few of us here caught about 150-250 pips from the crash that I called.
This is actually amusing & quite funny when I think about it. Okay allow me to use my play-school example:
If I asked a new trader the following:
On Friday last week a bar of chocolate cost 15 cents. On Monday last week the price was 5 cents which was the lowest the price reached. Last Friday the price reached 20 cents (which was the highest price last week) then fell to 15 cents were it stayed.
I say to the new trader
@ "This week the highest price is likely to be 22 cents."
@ " This week's High will exceed last week's High of 20 cents with 77% certainty."
@ "This week's lowest price is likely to be 4 cents."
@ " This week's low will be lower than last week's low of 5 cents with 82% certainty."
Anyway, on Monday the price opens at 21 then quickly goes to 23 then falls back to 21.5. Given the probabilities, what is the most rational choice to make? A 13 year old child with a basic grasp of math could probably tell you that holding a long at this level wouldn't be wise. The new trader could most certainly tell you that the best chance of profit is being short.
I THEN GIVE THE NOOB TRADER THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
There is a 92% probability of the price hitting the average of the the forecast high (22) & forecast low (4).
Then I ask the noob trader to calculate a place to take profit where they are virtually guaranteed to make money. I'm pretty sure the noob trader would give me the answer (22+4)/2 = 13. The surprise surprise the price falls to 13.
Well the average for the GU was 4984 & the average for the EU was 3590. 92% probability and you're here complaining.hehehe good example.
Anyway, back to the trading. I expect price failure around 3804 but since the up move was strong I'll need a combination of weak candlesticks (on the 15m) and reversal chart pattern (such as a double top on the 5m) before pulling the short trigger.
Getting ready to go short with SL at 3788.
I've gone short.
This is actually amusing & quite funny when I think about it. Okay allow me to use my play-school example:
If I asked a new trader the following:
On Friday last week a bar of chocolate cost 15 cents. On Monday last week the price was 5 cents which was the lowest the price reached. Last Friday the price reached 20 cents (which was the highest price last week) then fell to 15 cents were it stayed.
I say to the new trader
@ "This week the highest price is likely to be 22 cents."
@ " This week's High will exceed last week's High of 20 cents with 77% certainty."
@ "This week's lowest price is likely to be 4 cents."
@ " This week's low will be lower than last week's low of 5 cents with 82% certainty."
Anyway, on Monday the price opens at 21 then quickly goes to 23 then falls back to 21.5. Given the probabilities, what is the most rational choice to make? A 13 year old child with a basic grasp of math could probably tell you that holding a long at this level wouldn't be wise. The new trader could most certainly tell you that the best chance of profit is being short.
I THEN GIVE THE NOOB TRADER THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
There is a 92% probability of the price hitting the average of the the forecast high (22) & forecast low (4).
Then I ask the noob trader to calculate a place to take profit where they are virtually guaranteed to make money. I'm pretty sure the noob trader would give me the answer (22+4)/2 = 13. The surprise surprise the price falls to 13.
Well the average for the GU was 4984 & the average for the EU was 3590. 92% probability and you're here complaining.i pm you waitting for your help
i pm you waitting for your help
You might be waiting a long time.
You might be waiting a long time.
i pm you and even you behave...... i think you are a excellent predictor(thats pofessional)
This is actually amusing & quite funny when I think about it. Okay allow me to use my play-school example:
If I asked a new trader the following:
On Friday last week a bar of chocolate cost 15 cents. On Monday last week the price was 5 cents which was the lowest the price reached. Last Friday the price reached 20 cents (which was the highest price last week) then fell to 15 cents were it stayed.
I say to the new trader
@ "This week the highest price is likely to be 22 cents."
@ " This week's High will exceed last week's High of 20 cents with 77% certainty."
@ "This week's lowest price is likely to be 4 cents."
@ " This week's low will be lower than last week's low of 5 cents with 82% certainty."
Anyway, on Monday the price opens at 21 then quickly goes to 23 then falls back to 21.5. Given the probabilities, what is the most rational choice to make? A 13 year old child with a basic grasp of math could probably tell you that holding a long at this level wouldn't be wise. The new trader could most certainly tell you that the best chance of profit is being short.
I THEN GIVE THE NOOB TRADER THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
There is a 92% probability of the price hitting the average of the the forecast high (22) & forecast low (4).
Then I ask the noob trader to calculate a place to take profit where they are virtually guaranteed to make money. I'm pretty sure the noob trader would give me the answer (22+4)/2 = 13. The surprise surprise the price falls to 13.
Well the average for the GU was 4984 & the average for the EU was 3590. 92% probability and you're here complaining.when do you post it? sunday
when do you post it? sunday
You have already drank the last drop of goodwill.