Your Market Beliefs - page 6
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How's about this?
Systematic: We know ranges and trends will occur.
Randomness: We don't know how or when.
But we can react, which takes away any conotation of the lack of what to expect.
ES
Systematic: We know ranges and trends will occur. Randomness: We don't know how or when.
ohhh...now you want to debate...make up your mind Igor. In respect for the thread author, I will not comply with your request...take it to another thread Igor.
ES
It is of no use to have discussions with people who do not even know what the subject is about.
Beeing profitable consistently has NOTHING to do with the randomnes of the market.
If fundamentals influence the markets has again NOTHING to do with the question if the market is random
If academics debate with eachother they first start off to agree what the benchmarket or the terminology or the axioma's or the basic principles or rules are.
In trading the benchmarket or rules for this debate is: The random walk theory. Can we predict when and witch direction price will move to a certain direction (read the random walk theory and make your postings in function of this theory) and not trying to proof what is influencing the moves to a certain direction. Influence of move is a total different subject then prediction of move.
I am far from god but if you want to debate in a serious way, it would help if you could stay on track where the author of this topic tryed to start from.
regards....iGoR........The market is not Random
It is possible to be consistently profitable.........
......Fundamentals play in spot forex.....
.It is of no use to have discussions with people who do not even know what the subject is about.
Beeing profitable consistently has NOTHING to do with the randomnes of the market.
If fundamentals influence the markets has again NOTHING to do with the question if the market is random
If academics debate with eachother they first start off to agree what the benchmarket or the terminology or the axioma's or the basic principles or rules are.
In trading the benchmarket or rules for this debate is: The random walk theory. Can we predict when and witch direction price will move to a certain direction(read the random walk theory and make your postings in function of this theory) and not trying to proof what is influencing the moves to a certain direction. Influence of move is a total different subject then prediction of move.
I am far from god but if you want to debate in a serious way, it would help if you could stay on track where the author of this topic tryed to start from.
regards....iGoR
PS. If you fully understand whatthe random walk theory is aboutmaybe then you will understand my proof based on the EA's
Systematic: We know ranges and trends will occur. Randomness: We don't know how or when.
With the author's definition of the terms. It is clearly a mixture of both.
Ranges and Trends will occur - yes.
We don't know how or when - yes.
Obviously, if you talking about randomness of the next move, no one will ever know unless they are the Oracle. That's 100% true. But if you are talking about randomness of moves on a relationship level, not that's not 100% true. There are great fundamental forces that are directly tied to a specific currency.
I guess it is all relative. You want to talk about noise. We want to talk about the bigger picture. Both are valid. There is not 1 way to look at it.
Randomness: a lack of order, purpose, cause, or predictability. A random process is a repeating process whose outcomes follow no describable deterministic pattern, but follow a probability distribution.
(Randomness - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
The point of interest for me in that definition is the term "predictability". This is what I was hoping to communicate in the first post. It feels like our discussion may have slightly fallen victim to semantics. Although I must say its been rather lovely.
On the topic of predictability.
Since our conversation might be slowly evolving, I thought I'd share something that may be relevant to the topic. A while back I spotted a charting set-up that had (what seemed to be) an incredible "crystal ball" quality to it. To shorten the story, it provided exact time projections of price pivots. Now would be a good time to get excited. I'm talking about a technique, if applied correctly, that would literally have you buying and selling at the exact moments of a reversal. You would have the projection ahead of time... you simply show up and place the trade.
The chart attached below has the layout (3 line technique). I wont go into any details about how it works... if you can't see it, you're not ready to use it.
Anyway, many miles of historical graphs later, and nothing. I could not get it to work in the way I wanted it to... randomness. It was right often, but so are a lot of other things. See what you guys can do with it. Perhaps someone will spot something I missed. If you do, please don't hesitate to throw money at me.
Randomness: a lack of order, purpose, cause, or predictability. A random process is a repeating process whose outcomes follow no describable deterministic pattern, but follow a probability distribution. (Randomness - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
Yes, but there are degrees of randomness. Lack of order, purpose, cause, or predictability does not mean a complete void of them.
A random process is a repeating (note the oxymoron) process who follow no describable deterministic pattern, but follow a probability distribution. If you just know the basics of statistics, you would understand the probability distribution, the tails goes to infinity, therefore you can never reach 100% certainty.
Basically, 100% randomness is not achievable. And most likely, reversion to the mean is the most probable outcome of a normal probability distribution curve.
Kenny,
Any thoughts on the time projection? You seein' something I'm not
. I'm all ears, little buddy.
Anyways, so you are trying to draw 3 lines and predict the future. Hehe.
Sounds like a plan. You need to build a mathematical model before you can make money, Mr. M.
Is the straight horizontal line always horizontal line off the lowest pt?
Or is it based on the lowest 2 bottoms and does not have to be horizontal?
And lastly, are you a good programmer?
My preferred thought about the market is that all these S/R lines, Fibs, patterns and all, mainly work and have an importance because traders think they do, so they act accordingly, thus giving them strength, indeed! Isn't that amazing? This is why I voted "mix".