Decision-making error - page 6
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That's exactly what I mean - the order is a tenfold difference. Let's estimate how much more accurate my prediction will be.
Assuming the Eurodollar has a normal daily range of 100 pips, the average error of my "forecast" based on the MA would be 50 pips. Your "random" forecast is a forecast in the 7K pips range. The average error is 3.5K pips - roughly speaking, an order and a half. But that is on the daily chart. And if we take the minutes (let's not talk about ticks), which the local super traders terribly like to trade on, we obtain an error of about the same three orders of magnitude.
The price movement is not strictly determined, of course. However, it is not random at all. Several times I've conducted an experiment - we take any MQL-examples EA, generate a random sequence of bars, find approximately the same sequence of bars on the history and optimize the EA so that it shows a good profit on the history. And we run the same Expert Advisor on similar random bars - and at best, the profit disappears. Usually losses are incurred.
In my opinion, this is sufficient proof that the price movement is not random.
But if you think I'm wrong... well... Maybe I am.
It's not about the TS, it's about! asking why there is a fear of opening a trade with your TS, and it's a psychological issue.
Imagine you have a friend and he changes his mind every five minutes ... The question is what happens next in your relationship?
What friend will behave like a chart ))))
And I don't change my decisions all trades are closed with a stop watch the history of the signal )https://www.mql5.com/ru/signals/101427#!tab=history
Wrong. There is no 7,000 points in the forecast. There is a variance of about the same magnitude as the market.
Strangely enough, I have no problem explaining "the basics of statistics". Probably because I don't know them...
But, understandably, it turns out that there is already "a variance", which means that you can't say that the price is "independent". Just the existence of this very variance and its use in the forecast proves that there is a pattern in price movement. A forecast that is within "three sigma" will be far more accurate than a forecast that is evenly distributed across the entire range of values.
And you say "random"... Of course, randomness is present, but it is present in absolutely any phenomenon, and it does not prevent its prediction, even if with errors.
You just have to learn to trust yourself .And change your mind every five minutes ...Imagine you have a friend and he starts changing his mind every five minutes ...The question is what happens next in your relationship?
Strangely, I have no problem explaining the "basics of statistics", probably because I don't know them...
But, understandably, it turns out that there is already a "variance", which means that it cannot be said that the price is "independent". Just the existence of this very variance and its use in the forecast proves that there is a pattern in price movement. A forecast that is within "three sigma" will be much more accurate than a forecast that is evenly distributed over the entire range of values.
And you say "random"... Certainly, randomness is present, but it is present in absolutely any phenomenon, and it does not prevent it from predicting, albeit with errors.
facepalm;) God, what an intellectual environment that was on the Fourth in 2008-2012 has degenerated into!
facepalm;) God, what an intellectual milieu that was on the foursome in 2008-2012 has degenerated into!
You don't have to tell me, I don't have any brains at all, how can I be bothered with your lofty thoughts that you couldn't even formulate... First, stating that "the previous prices are in no way connected with the current prices", and then, all of a sudden, you remember "the basics of statistics", you might even remember the correlation... I certainly do not have such "intellectual heights" like the moon...
Strange, but I have no problem explaining the "basics of statistics". Probably because I don't know them...
What can I articulate when you blatantly state your ignorance of statistics and then erroneously (which is natural) calculate a difference of several orders of magnitude between predictions? If you don't know, why are you trying to argue on these topics and then also taking offense at my, as you think, snobbery?
What can I formulate when you blatantly state your ignorance of statistics and then erroneously (which is natural) calculate the difference between the forecasts by several orders of magnitude?